Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely
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  Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely
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Author Topic: Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely  (Read 17670 times)
Reds4
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« on: October 11, 2004, 02:04:09 PM »
« edited: October 11, 2004, 02:21:48 PM by Reds4 »

48-48 registered. The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday.


Modified to add link.. Job approval at 47% (seems way too low)
Vorlon, or anyone else know how to figure out how many Dems and how many GOP are in this poll?



http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
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Hegemon
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2004, 02:05:22 PM »

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.
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A18
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2004, 02:06:39 PM »

I hope Bush loses the PV and wins the EV again, just to make all the anti- electoral college people made.  :-)

Any news out of Ohio?
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2004, 02:06:46 PM »

Nice.  I'll take a tied race right now.  
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Reds4
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2004, 02:07:48 PM »

Yes you are right. I can't believe that many people thought Kerry won that debate. I'm really curious to see the partisan breakdown of this poll. Saturday and Sunday polls can be Democratic leaning sometimes, we'll have to see.
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Rococo4
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2004, 02:10:55 PM »

I am pretty surprised by this result.  Thought for sure Bush would be over 50
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A18
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2004, 02:12:45 PM »

It's a Saturday/Sunday poll. He probably is (slightly above) 50.
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Reds4
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2004, 02:12:54 PM »

Rococo, I figured Bush would be up a couple. The thing that surprises me the most is that 45-30 think Kerry won the last debate. I don't know how that could be, but I guess people saw it differently than me.
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JNB
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2004, 02:16:01 PM »

 No new news out of Ohio yet. As for Gallup, I will repeat that their numbers have been screwy this election cycle., and during August, Gallup was out of wack with the other polling outfits.
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A18
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2004, 02:17:29 PM »

Even if it's subconsciously, I think the majority of people who saw that debate got a better impression of Bush.
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JNB
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2004, 02:22:47 PM »


 The 2nd debate was a tie, either side who claims otherwise is in pure spin zone.
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Reds4
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2004, 02:23:04 PM »

47% approval in this poll seems quite a bit too low. 4 points or so maybe. I'm hoping this is a bad sample because the breakdown doesnt look good for Bush.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2004, 02:24:27 PM »

It's a Saturday/Sunday poll. He probably is (slightly above) 50.

Well, that's a new one. 

Spin away Phillip
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handler
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2004, 02:24:46 PM »

Need to see the partisan breakout.  There usually is a some sort of reason for a drop in job number.  I don't see a thing in the news cycle that would account for this.  Need more imformation.
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A18
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2004, 02:25:28 PM »

HockeyDude, it's a well known fact that Republicans do worse in the polls on weekends.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2004, 02:35:58 PM »

Yes you are right. I can't believe that many people thought Kerry won that debate. I'm really curious to see the partisan breakdown of this poll. Saturday and Sunday polls can be Democratic leaning sometimes, we'll have to see.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2004, 02:40:01 PM »

what if i were to say that it's the weekdays that are more skewed and inaccurate?  You can't prove this kind of stuff.   
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khirkhib
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2004, 02:40:48 PM »

No the debate numbers reflect the reality that we saw.  Bush did do better than he did in the first debate but Kerry connected better with the audiance, remembered names, was civil, and reponded well to hostile questions better. It was close but Kerry had a slight win.  The numbers are probably spread further reflecting who one the spin cycle.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #18 on: October 11, 2004, 02:42:04 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2004, 02:52:40 PM by khirkhib »

Just a question and I do have little faith in the polls but has the incumbant ever won the election after being tied or slightly under the numbers of his oposition 2 weeks before the election.

_---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thought I would answer my own question.

Looks kind of like 1980


and 1976



The election in 60, 68, and 52 are similar but maybe the challenger turning it on a little late




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The Vorlon
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« Reply #19 on: October 11, 2004, 02:49:07 PM »

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2004, 03:00:09 PM »


Re: Dems doing better on weekends
If that true, it's just another argument in favor of weighting by party.
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Shira
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« Reply #21 on: October 11, 2004, 03:16:00 PM »

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.

You respect Gallup and disrespect Zogby but since October, and in particular this week their numbers are very close.

When you bring or analyze "good news" (for me) you always have "but"s and reservations, in particular as to the makeup of the sample. When you come with "bad news" it is always clear and unambiguous.
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khirkhib
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« Reply #22 on: October 11, 2004, 03:25:26 PM »

I know Vorlon tries to be impartial and I know that he doesn't like politics of all stripes, this much is has said but it does strike me sometimes the speed the Bush friendly numbers get posted here and or the discussions that he brings up.  That however can be my own biases conspiring against what I see (and what the other embattled liberals on this site might see).  I'm sure the true republicans and the Bush apologists have the same (slightly paranoid) feelings of disestablishment in these forums.
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Hegemon
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« Reply #23 on: October 11, 2004, 03:27:15 PM »

Bill Schneider just reported on CNN that Kerry now leads Bush 44%-42% in trustworthiness, and Edwards beats Cheney 52%-46% in a hypothetical presidential matchup.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #24 on: October 11, 2004, 03:37:23 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2004, 03:56:41 PM by The Vorlon »

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.

You respect Gallup and disrespect Zogby but since October, and in particular this week their numbers are very close.

When you bring or analyze "good news" (for me) you always have "but"s and reservations, in particular as to the makeup of the sample. When you come with "bad news" it is always clear and unambiguous.


When one poll is a lot different than others, you ask questions.

For example, when SUSA had Maryland tied, I seem to recall posting it as "what I presume to be a robot malfunction of some kind"....

ABC said Kerry won the debate by 3%
Gallups own poll said Kerry by 2
Rasmussen said by 1

Now Gallup says by 15%..?

It is possible they asked a different question is all.

"Who presented thier ideas better" for example would likely get a very different result that "Who won?"

I want to take a look.

Indeed after a poll comes out of any kind, I think I have posted 100 times, I want to take a look at the guts before I comment.

so....

I want to take a look at the guts before I comment... Smiley

Regarding Zogby, this is what I posted TODAY in reply to a question:


Zogby is an enigma.

20 of his last 45 polls done by telephone have been wrong by more than the margin of error. - In 2002 his state polls were a total joke.

That being said, his 1996 and 2000 presidential polls were quite good.

Zogby is a "wildcard" he is either spectatularly correct or a magnificent failure.

We'll know which it is this year on Nov 3rd.


I think this is afair comment.

But hey, there are like 12 national polls...

There are about 6 I "like" and average in my mind to figure where things are...

Zogby is not one of them, but hey an average of 7 or 9 polls is cool too Smiley
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