Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely
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  Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely
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Author Topic: Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely  (Read 17669 times)
Rococo4
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« Reply #50 on: October 11, 2004, 11:16:25 PM »

I was dissapointed in the result, but ABC/WP, Rasmussen, Battleground and Time all showed Bush ahead this weekend and today for the tracking polls.  Dont get too discouraged.  Lets wait and see what the sample was before going crazy
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Umengus
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« Reply #51 on: October 12, 2004, 06:55:35 AM »

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

There are volunteers who give the standard "the only poll that counts is on election day" response, and then there are those of us who live and die by the polls (publically released and internal).  I fall into the second category.  The fact that viewership was so high for that first debate really hurt, imo.  It's hard to erase a rotten "first impression" as Gore found out in 2000 when he tried to make up for his sighing in the first debate.  I can't understand why Bush doesn't try to make some news instead of playing defense day in and day out.  All along we were were told Karl Rove had a few tricks  and surprises up his sleeve...well, WHERE ARE THEY!!?!?!

And there hasn't been a public poll out for Wisconsin in about a week....but we do have an idea on how the state has been trending in that time period.  If other Bush partisans want to stick their collective heads in the sand, go right ahead.  Rush Limbaugh has been wearing rose-colored glasses for months.  Today, however, he sounded dis-spirited and said he didn't know what to make out of the polls and had no clue what would happen on election day.   It's bad enough to have our headquaters "invaded" by AFL-CIO members and the cowards there not fight back and just sit and take the abuse, but to end up on the losing side in this election is just too much to take.
Get a grip on yourself.  Rasmussen had Bush+3 before the debate.
Gallup had Bush+3 after the debate.  Case closed

You are comparing apples with pears...

Gallup 9-12 sept: +8 Bush
Gallup 3-5 oct: +3 Bush  net gain: 5

And don't forget that Wisconsin is very hard to poll.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #52 on: October 12, 2004, 07:34:03 AM »

This year October surprise is going to be Kerry strength down the stretch.  He always does it, because he wisely saves his best arguments for the home stretch when they will be fresh in voters' minds.  Bush is firing all his ammo right now. 
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AuH2O
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« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2004, 09:05:17 AM »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.
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pollwatch99-a
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« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2004, 10:39:14 AM »

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

There are volunteers who give the standard "the only poll that counts is on election day" response, and then there are those of us who live and die by the polls (publically released and internal).  I fall into the second category.  The fact that viewership was so high for that first debate really hurt, imo.  It's hard to erase a rotten "first impression" as Gore found out in 2000 when he tried to make up for his sighing in the first debate.  I can't understand why Bush doesn't try to make some news instead of playing defense day in and day out.  All along we were were told Karl Rove had a few tricks  and surprises up his sleeve...well, WHERE ARE THEY!!?!?!

And there hasn't been a public poll out for Wisconsin in about a week....but we do have an idea on how the state has been trending in that time period.  If other Bush partisans want to stick their collective heads in the sand, go right ahead.  Rush Limbaugh has been wearing rose-colored glasses for months.  Today, however, he sounded dis-spirited and said he didn't know what to make out of the polls and had no clue what would happen on election day.   It's bad enough to have our headquaters "invaded" by AFL-CIO members and the cowards there not fight back and just sit and take the abuse, but to end up on the losing side in this election is just too much to take.
Get a grip on yourself.  Rasmussen had Bush+3 before the debate.
Gallup had Bush+3 after the debate.  Case closed
WI+3 today as per Rasmussen.  Confirmation
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2004, 10:45:25 AM »

Nothing wrong with the gallup sample BTW
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AuH2O
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« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2004, 11:03:17 AM »

Gallup has Bush at 51% in the South?

Err, no.

I guess the advantage of weighting properly is that you're less likely to get such a result. On the other hand, in a super close race, polling is fairly useless anyway except to tell you its close.
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Reds4
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« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2004, 11:12:54 AM »

Vorlon, about how many Dems compared to GOP'ers were in this sample? 3 or 4% more?
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jacob_101
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« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2004, 12:24:27 PM »

Does anyone have any internals for this poll?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #59 on: October 12, 2004, 12:47:32 PM »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #60 on: October 12, 2004, 12:53:03 PM »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

A Democrat winning by 12% in Massachusetts does not seem to me to be an act worthy of induction into the political hall of fame.. IMHO.
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TheBulldog
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« Reply #61 on: October 12, 2004, 01:09:45 PM »

I'll take Kerry with 49%, as long as he wins the electoral vote
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MODU
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« Reply #62 on: October 12, 2004, 01:14:02 PM »

I'll take Kerry with 49%, as long as he wins the electoral vote

"Yes Alex, I'll take Presidential Elections for $200."
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A18
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« Reply #63 on: October 12, 2004, 01:35:07 PM »

I'll take Kerry with 59%, as long as he loses the electoral vote
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J. J.
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« Reply #64 on: October 12, 2004, 02:18:14 PM »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

Actually, Gov. Nick, that statement is incorrect.  The number of Dem House seats increased by 3.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #65 on: October 12, 2004, 03:25:43 PM »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

Actually, Gov. Nick, that statement is incorrect.  The number of Dem House seats increased by 3.

Compared to what?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #66 on: October 12, 2004, 03:31:17 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2004, 03:33:54 PM by Gov. NickG »

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

Actually, Gov. Nick, that statement is incorrect.  The number of Dem House seats increased by 3.

Right, but a lot of people thought the Dems might retake the House in 1996 on the strength of a 15-point Clinton victory.  The Dems picked up a couple seats in the House, but their performance was actually pretty disappointing, since some of seats they won were just seats where the Republicans won fluke victories in 1994 that they had no reasonable chance of holding (e.g. Rostenkowski's seat). 

And the Dems ended up losing one net seat in the Senate.    Some of the seats the Dems expected to win (Swett in NH, Nelson in NE) didn't pan out.  Kerry was one of the few Democrats to gain strength at the close of the campaign.
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A18
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« Reply #67 on: October 12, 2004, 03:37:24 PM »

Kerry was one of the few Democrats running in Massachusetts
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #68 on: October 12, 2004, 03:44:37 PM »

Kerry was one of the few Democrats running in Massachusetts
But what does that have to do with Bill Clinton?  Kerry's support rose at the end of the campaign while Clinton's was falling.
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Umengus
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« Reply #69 on: October 13, 2004, 03:34:05 AM »

Party ID last Gallup poll (SOURCE: daily kos)


"Yesterday, Gallup released a new poll for USA Today and CNN, which showed a tightened race in both of their registered voter (RV) and likely voter (LV) results. It turns out that the RV and LV results, showing a 49%-48% Kerry lead amongst LVs, and a 48%-48% tie amongst RVs, were once again based on samples that contained more Republicans than Democrats.
This is the information I obtained from Gallup this morning:

Likely Voters [...]

Likely Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48%

Total Sample: 793
GOP: 302 (38%)
Dem: 269 (34%)
Ind: 219 (28%) [...]

Registered Voters [...]

Registered Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Dead Heat 48%-48%

Total Sample: 1015
GOP: 364 (36%)
Dem: 344 (34%)
Ind: 295 (29%)"




its a joke?
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King
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« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2004, 10:22:24 PM »

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

God, I love this guy. Tongue
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ATFFL
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« Reply #71 on: November 11, 2004, 10:48:20 PM »

I also love all the Gallup bashing when they did quite well excepting their ludicrous 9-1 undecided break for Kerry.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #72 on: November 11, 2004, 10:54:50 PM »

Their state polls sucked big time, though.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #73 on: November 11, 2004, 10:55:27 PM »

Their state polls sucked big time, though.

Yes, they have to rebuild their reputation there.
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King
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« Reply #74 on: November 11, 2004, 11:06:00 PM »

Of the 50 states they predicted, they got Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire wrong. Thats not very good.
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