Counties where FDR ran behind Al Smith?
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  Counties where FDR ran behind Al Smith?
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Author Topic: Counties where FDR ran behind Al Smith?  (Read 2497 times)
Rob
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« on: August 15, 2009, 12:25:35 AM »

I no longer have a full membership (although imo I should have one, since I've contributed 180 goddamn maps... but I digress Tongue), so I can't look this up myself. Are there any counties where FDR, in 1932, actually received a lower percentage than Smith had in 1928?
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bgwah
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2009, 12:49:31 AM »

Hmm. My first thought was to look at Louisiana, as I hypothesized Smith may have received a Catholic boost that FDR didn't get in Cajun Country.

I see that Iberville Parish voted 85% Smith, but only 75% FDR. Iberia is 86% Smith and 75% FDR. St. John the Baptist is 89% Smith and 80% FDR. St. James is 92% Smith and 88% FDR.

It looks like there are more, but because the swing/trend feature doesn't go back that far, checking is kind of time-consuming. If you have any ideas of where else to check, I would be happy to do so.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2009, 05:39:55 AM »

(although imo I should have one, since I've contributed 180 goddamn maps... but I digress Tongue)

Unfortunately, you have to pay for that. But you should do : it worths the price it costs ! Wink
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Nym90
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2009, 09:47:09 PM »

Hmm. My first thought was to look at Louisiana, as I hypothesized Smith may have received a Catholic boost that FDR didn't get in Cajun Country.

I see that Iberville Parish voted 85% Smith, but only 75% FDR. Iberia is 86% Smith and 75% FDR. St. John the Baptist is 89% Smith and 80% FDR. St. James is 92% Smith and 88% FDR.

It looks like there are more, but because the swing/trend feature doesn't go back that far, checking is kind of time-consuming. If you have any ideas of where else to check, I would be happy to do so.

There are no swing/trend maps, but there is swing/trend data available on the data tables, which can be sorted by swing/trend.
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2009, 09:50:20 PM »

Every state swung to FDR, but Massachusetts had the smallest swing, and there was one county there, Berkshire, that swung towards Hoover (though FDR still narrowly carried it). The Catholic influence again.
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RI
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2009, 09:57:22 PM »

I believe New Haven County, CT did, but, as I don't have a membership anymore, I can't guarantee it.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2009, 09:59:58 PM »

I believe New Haven County, CT did, but, as I don't have a membership anymore, I can't guarantee it.

No, it had a 3.47% swing to FDR.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2009, 10:02:24 PM »

I believe New Haven County, CT did, but, as I don't have a membership anymore, I can't guarantee it.

No, it had a 3.47% swing to FDR.

Yeah, I checked my other source, and you are correct. The Democratic percentage did drop, though. It just was because of the socialist vote. Tongue
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2009, 10:09:06 PM »
« Edited: August 18, 2009, 10:13:58 PM by realisticidealist »

What about Clinton County, New York and Elk County, Pennsylvania?

It appears Zapata County, Texas; Jackson Parish, Louisiana; and Lafource Parish, Louisiana did as well.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2009, 10:12:38 PM »

What about Clinton County, New York and Elk County, Pennsylvania?

Clinton County had a 2.05% swing to Hoover, and Elk County had a 13.68% swing to Hoover.
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2009, 05:15:25 PM »

Just on a hunch I looked at SC. You will laugh: 4 counties swung to Hoover (Bamberg, Calhoun, Clarendon and Edgefield). Clarendon swung by almost 2.5%

Of course, there were no real general elections in SC back in the time Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2009, 05:18:25 PM »

What about Clinton County, New York and Elk County, Pennsylvania?

Clinton County had a 2.05% swing to Hoover, and Elk County had a 13.68% swing to Hoover.

In NY Clinton, Fulton and Warren swung to Hoover (Fulton and Warren by about a quarter of 1%).
In PA Elk was the only one to do so.
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ag
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« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2009, 05:25:04 PM »

Another hilarious "result" - Humphreys County, MS (a 2.34% "swing" to Hoover - he only got 1 vote there in 1928, but a whole of 10 votes in 1932).
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Hash
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« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2009, 05:27:01 PM »

Try Ellis County, Kansas maybe. IIRC it's an old Catholic enclave.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2009, 05:31:55 PM »

Hmm. My first thought was to look at Louisiana, as I hypothesized Smith may have received a Catholic boost that FDR didn't get in Cajun Country.

I see that Iberville Parish voted 85% Smith, but only 75% FDR. Iberia is 86% Smith and 75% FDR. St. John the Baptist is 89% Smith and 80% FDR. St. James is 92% Smith and 88% FDR.

It looks like there are more, but because the swing/trend feature doesn't go back that far, checking is kind of time-consuming. If you have any ideas of where else to check, I would be happy to do so.

Louisiana swings to Hoover: Iberia (+21.95%), Iberville (+20.34%), Jackson (+3.82%), LaFourche (+2.67%), St. Bernard (+6.68%), St. James (+8.69%), St. John the Baptist (+16.28%), West Baton Rouge (+5.13%)
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ag
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« Reply #15 on: August 19, 2009, 05:33:24 PM »

In Iowa, apparently, 3 counties swung to Hoover: Montgomery (+39.1%), Muscatine (+33.9%) and O'Brien (+17.37%). Any ideas why?
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2009, 05:34:42 PM »

Try Ellis County, Kansas maybe. IIRC it's an old Catholic enclave.

Nope. 17% swing to Roosevelt. Of course, it might be the smallest swing in KS - the state swung over 50%
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ag
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2009, 05:40:10 PM »

That seems to be all on the atlas (it is missing the county data either for 1928 or for 1932 for a few states, such as TX or VA, though).
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RI
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2009, 06:25:17 PM »

In Iowa, apparently, 3 counties swung to Hoover: Montgomery (+39.1%), Muscatine (+33.9%) and O'Brien (+17.37%). Any ideas why?

None of those swung to Hoover. Hoover won all three of them in 1928, and lost all three of them in 1932.
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ag
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2009, 07:33:40 PM »

In Iowa, apparently, 3 counties swung to Hoover: Montgomery (+39.1%), Muscatine (+33.9%) and O'Brien (+17.37%). Any ideas why?

None of those swung to Hoover. Hoover won all three of them in 1928, and lost all three of them in 1932.

Ok, must be a typo on the atlas - I just followed the Atlas tables' swing columns.
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