Taiwan elections

[jaichind]

I pray each day that the demogogue Chen Sui-Bien does not win in 2004.  His is running a populist campaign to cover up his losy record on the economy.  At this stage the Lien-Soong ticket still have about a 60% chance of winning but the sly Chen could pull at lot of rabbits out of his hat.

[jaichind]

I am from Taiwan Province myself.  Of course I am very biased.  I am Chinese reunifiaction and very hostile to Chen Sui-Bien.  Here is how I see the election matches up.  Traditionally the pro-unification pan-KMT parties has about 60% of the vote and the pan-DPP has about 35% of the vote.
A split in the KMT in 200 lead to a victory for Chen with 39% vote.  KMT candidate Lien got 23% and renegade KMT candidate Soong got 37%.

The breaking off of the pro-independence faction of the KMT in 2001 led by ex-KMT Chairman Lee realigned the 60-35 balance to 55-40 balance between the two blocs.  

Chen in March 2004 faces a Lien-Soong ticket.  The power of incumbancy should swing another 5% so the election should be a 50-45 affair with advantage for the KMT.  It is totally possible that Chen could provoke Mainland China ahead of the election and the resulting tensions could push Chen to victory.  

Polls either show a dead heat or Lien-Soong with a 5-10% lead.  Problem for Chen is that no poll show him with more than 40% support.  The undecided are at least 20% and in the USA most of that will go to the challanger.  But this is the Chinese province of Taiwan and not USA.  That is where the hope of the Chen campaign lies.

My prediction:  Lien 53 Chen 47.

[jaichind]

I believe that the ROC armed forces does not number that high to be the 4th largest in the world.  For sure, American, Russian, India, North Korean, South Korean armed forces are larger.  
For sure a conflict should be avoided at all costs.  Back in 1996 it was more Mainland China's fault for increase in tensions.  This time it is 100% Taiwan with the Chen administration at the helm.
Of course the conflict might not last that long.  Most estimates have the ROC armed forces holding out between 22 hours to two weeks before utter defeat.  And that does not take into account of possible collapse of morale in the pro-unification ROC armed forces when they realize that they are fighting for Taiwan independence.   They might just defect en masse.  Diehard unificationsts on Taiwan Province like me might not number that high (5-15% dependending on how one counts it) but some will be working actively for the PLA in a conflict and bring the war to a quick resolution.

[jaichind]

Editorial from Indian newspaper The Hindu.  I could not have said it better myself.

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TAIWAN'S PRESIDENT CHEN Shui-bian has embarked on a dangerous course by trying to harm the prospects of a political unification of the island with the People's Republic of China. In persisting with a plan for a referendum on proposals that will shape Taiwan's future, he seeks to reduce Beijing's role in the process that will define the character of One China. The People's Republic, which considers Taiwan as nothing more than a dissident province, has always treated the very notion of a referendum as anathema since it implies that the people of the island have a right to strive for independence. China warned Taiwan that it will resort to military action if the incipient effort to make the island a sovereign nation is not wound up. However, Mr. Chen has not abandoned his incendiary plan since he believes it will lead to his re-election. His record in office has been dismal and the Opposition had reason to believe that he could be defeated in the elections to be held in March 2004. The Opposition, which mainly consists of different factions of the Kuomintang, stands for reunification with the mainland provided the interests of its constituents are protected. In proposing that the referendum and the presidential poll be held simultaneously, Mr. Chen has tried to promote himself as the champion of an alternative scheme to protect the interest of the islanders. However, the Taiwanese are apprehensive about electing a person who might lead them into a confrontation with China. Mr. Chen has tried to convince them that the United States will come to their defence.

The Taiwanese leader was not deterred even after President George W. Bush endorsed China's position during Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's visit to Washington last week. Mr. Bush called on both sides to refrain from unilateral actions to change the status quo, described the referendum move as provocative, and expressed his opposition to the plan. While Beijing was satisfied with what it perceived as a clear warning to Taiwan, Mr. Chen preferred to believe that he had been left with a loophole. He was induced to do so because of the perceptible divisions within the U.S. administration on China policy. The Bush administration commenced its term by categorising China as a "strategic competitor" and swore that it would protect Taiwan at all costs. Its policy became more realistic once it understood the costs of alienating a great country that has emerged as an economic powerhouse and a leading player on the world stage. However, several key members of the administration have not subscribed to this change in approach. They take their cue from American neo-conservatives, a core component of Mr. Bush's support base, who were appalled at the apparent appeasement of China by their President. These ideologues could push the administration to change its policy in the months to come.

Beijing's opposition to the referendum proposal is based on the sound and just principle that Taiwan belongs to all the people of China, those on the island as well as the mainland. Its future status cannot be decided by those living on the island alone. China's leadership has assured the Taiwanese that it understands their yearning for democracy and respects their desire to control their destinies. However, Beijing will not tolerate any flouting of the One China principle. While force might be a last resort, the People's Republic has focussed on the actualities that promote closeness between the people of the mainland and those who live on the island. The economies of China and Taiwan are closely intertwined and people-to-people contacts are extensive. Beijing has urged Taiwan to concentrate on the development of these linkages instead of pursuing dangerous, madcap fantasies.

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[jaichind]

A conflict would obviously be bad, but Taiwan is after all a democracy and China is not. I think it is better for Taiwan to remain a good example than to be sucked into a Chinese dictature. And I am not convinced of the "two systems-talk", it doesn't seem to be working well in Hongkong. If people want to form independent nations, let them! China is essentially an imperialist state and should learn to behave themselves.

That would be a CW position by someone from the liberal democratic West.  I am from the Orient and see things a bit differently.  First, I do not see Hong Kong as not working.   For me there is nothing any average Joe cannot do today they could do before 1997.  Sure Mainland China tried to push Act 21 down its throat.  But that act is not that much different from the American Patriotic Act the Bush administration pushed in the USA.  For sure the Hong Kong economy has not been doing as well recently.  But that has more to do with deflation related to economic integration with Guangdong province where the price gap between Hong Kong and Guandong is much larger than the productivity gap.  Deflaction and economic convergence is bound to take place regardless of the political sytsem.  I been visiting  Hong Kong once a year since the early 1990s and  on the whole Hong Kong has done quite well under One Country Two Systems.

As for my home province of Taiwan I really do not see the benifits of "democracy" and competitve politics.  I only see, since the early 1990s. competitve populism and poor economic mangement.  Funny how more "democratic" Taiwan gets the worse its public policy gets.  Corruption, the budget deficit, crime, unemployment and so on all have surged since the early 1990s.  In fact, one million people from Taiwan province have migrated to and are living in Mainland China today.  Funny how fully 5% of the population of "democratic" Taiwan prefer authoritarian Mainland China.  A poll of residents of Shanghai from Taiwan Province showed that they consider the quality of life in all respects are superior in Shanghai than Taipei.  The one exception, and I can atest to that, is health care, where the gap between Shanghai and Taipei is still large.  

It is funny that the economic mismagement of Chen Sui-Bien that drove that one million people from Taiwan to migrate to Mainland China actually helps his reelection campaign.  Reason is that most of that one million are urban, middle-class, highly educated, and ages 30-50.  That fits the strongest demographic profile of the pro-reunification Pan-Blue opposition.  The ruling pro-independence Pan-Green bloc led by Chen are strong in rual, low-income, low-education and 60+.  In other words, Chen is strong with the Bubbas and Billy Bobs of Taiwan Province, many of whom would vote for Pan-Green no matter what.  Truely ironic.  One of the first cases of elecoral politics where economic mismangement actually HELPS the incumbent.

[jaichind]

I am not opposed to democracy.  But I see it as a means not an end.  Same could be said for the one million people from Taiwan Province that moved to the Mainland.  Most of them I am sure have no problem with democracy in the abstract.  It is that at that place, at time, that particular stage of development, the so-called "democarcy" on Taiwan Province is not delivering the correct policies for them thrive in an economic sense.  

I think there is a misconception of definitions here.  I think most of the positive aspects you think of when the word "democracy" is used should really be refered to as "civil society."  While there is for sure some correlation between the two, one does not necessary imply the latter.  Competitive electoral politics has not made Taiwan any less corrupt than the authoritarian 1980s.  In fact it is even more corrupt today.  Ditto for places like India, Philippines, and so on.  

[jaichind]

But that is a problem.  TAIWAN IS NOT A SOVEREIGN STATE.  Republic of China(ROC) is a sovereign state.  As per the Constitution of the Republic of China, Taiwan and Mailand China both belong to ROC.  As per the Constitution of the Peoples Republic of China(PRC), Taiwan and Mainland China belong to PRC.   This is a classic CIVIL WAR.  International law for sure does NOT apply.  If a PRC attack on Taiwan Province violates international law then when PRC took over Hainan Island in 1950 from ROC armed forces and ROC, that act should also be considered a violation of international law.  As of March 1950, the legal status of Hainan Island (same place the US spy plane was forced to land back in April 2001) and Taiwan Province were the same.  Do not see why the attack by PRC in 1950 was legal and an attack today on Taiwan Province is illegal under international law.

The UN got it right: "There is only One legal govenment of China and Taiwan is part of that One China."  

This is a domestic affair of the Chinese.  International law does not apply.

[jaichind]

China does worry me enormously. They have a diabolical human rights record and a dreadful attitude to the environment. This has included flooding the 3 gorges and displacing millions of people. Shameful. Hopefully however, as the Chinese become wealthier and more vocal there will be a strong demand for reform and democracy will prevail. Military action of any kind is out of the question. Not only does China have the worlds largest army, but they also have nukes and wouldn't need much provokation to use them I'm sure.

I actually think in the opposite.  If democratic politics were to take place on Mainland China today, then for sure rapid populist ultranationalist parties will for sure win in an election.  Most urban Mainland Chinese are for a war ASAP to take over Taiwan Province.  The ruling Chinese Communist Party is taking a long term view and holding back such outbursts.  Democracy now would most likley mean war over Taiwan Province.  

I still hold out hope that Chinese reunification can be achieved via peaceful means.  But a pre-requsite of that would have to be NO FREE elections on the Mainland for a while.  Democracy would lead to populism and then lead to war.

[jaichind]

On the issue of Mainland Chinese human rights.  I have been visiting the Mainland once every couple of years since the mid 1980s.  I can report they made huge progress in that area.  Of course I define it as what an averge Joe can do and what the government will let him do.  I still strongly object to their "One Child Policy" and their policies on "Religion."  I found those two policies more than any other getting in the way of everyday life for the average Joe.  But again, whereas I used to be very hostile to the Communist regime back in the 1980s I find myself approving of this regime more and more over the years in this area.

[jaichind]

I am afriad we will have to agree to disagree.  All those events you spoke of I also consider domestic affairs.  However I condem those events, I feel that they are the affairs of others.

I view a PRC attack on Taiwan Province the same as the USA assult and suppression of the in 1861-5 Southern Independence movenment.  Same as the 1995 crushing by Croatia of the Serb Republic of Krimnia.  Why not demand these acts of "violation of international law" be reversed, if we were to take your logic?

If a PRC attack of Taiwan Province is an international affair, then the PRC takeover of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, SzeChuan, GuiZhou, Gansu, and XingJiang provinces in late 1949 after the formation of the PRC are also international affairs.  Ditto for the PRC takeover of Hainan Island in 1950.  Why not demand the return of such provinces to the Taipei based ROC regime? Why do we allow such violations of "international law" not to be reversed?  By not reversing them are we not encouraging futher violations of such "international law"?

[jaichind]

Economist Intelligence Unit predicts a Lien-Soong victory over Chen-Lu 55-45 in March 2004.  Most bookies in Taiwan Province itself handicaps Lien-Soong 6% or so implying a 53-47 victory.  Due to confusion in the Chen-Lu camp over the harsh words of USA President Bush on the DPP proposed referendum polls has moved in the direction of Lien-Soong.  Whereas the gap used to be around 5-10% in the polls it is now around 10-15%.  Chen's recent momentum has been broken.  Eventually the Chen camp will re-group but might have to call off the referendum due to threats from Mainland China and USA or at least water it down so it becomes meaningless.

[jaichind]

As an incumbent, one could never count Chen out, no matter how far back Chen is in the polls.  There are still plenty of tricks in his bag.  The key question is how the undecided will break.  Most polls has Lien-Soong having a 45-35 lead in the polls.  Traditionally, most undecided break against the incumbent.  But Taiwan Province politics does not work like others.  Historically, the now ruling DPP captures a good deal of the undecided on election day.  This was mostly because DPP supporters were reluctant to indicate their voting preferences due to they fear that such a preference revealed to pollsters might come back to bite them by the then ruling KMT, especially during the early 1990s.  Also, DPP is strong in the less educated electorate who are also relectuant to indicate their preferences.
Even since the DPP capured power in 2000, the first factor has become less signficant.  If I had to guess now I will still give the edge to Lien-Soong.

But I feel the fact is that no matter who wins, the policy choices of whoever is in charge of Taipei is fairly limited.  Chinese reunifiation most likely cannot be delayed and for sure will take place within 15-20 years, no matter who is in charge in Taipei.  Another Chen administration would mean the chances of an armed attack by the PLA provoked by the Chen administration will go up but I suspect even Chen would not be foolish enough to try to tangle with the PLA.

[jaichind]

Field Report from Taiwan Province for the March 2004 ROC Presidential elections.  

I spent about 17 days on Taiwan Province for Chinese New Year.  Despite visiting the province twice a year I did not have a chance to spend Chinese New Year on my home province since I moved to the USA.  I managed to visit 12 of the 23 counties/cities on Taiwan Province.  These 23 counties/cities plus the two counties on Fujian Province will form the election regions for the March 20 2004 Presidential elections.

Most polls indicates a 7-15 point lead for the Lien-Soong ticket over the incumbent DPP Chen-Lu.  On the whole, the self-employed, those above 60, lower income, rural, low educated, Southern counties are for Chen-Lu and professional, middle aged, upper middle class, urban, highly educated, Northern counties are for Lien-Soong.  In 2000, Lien and Soong ran seperately and captured 23% and 37%  respectively while Chen captured 39% in a winning effert.  It would be a mistake, of course to predict a Lien-Soong based on the 2000 results as former KMT chairman Lee Teng-Hui is now actively working for Chen-Lu an for sure have the 5-10% pro-Lee block with him from the pan-Blue block to the pan-Green block.

What I discovered during my visit was the the electorate is highly polarized around the demographic groups I mentioned aboved.  It was not so in 2000.  Almost all my relatives and friends of relatives match the demographic profile of the pan-Blue block.  Of the several dozen friend/relatives of my back on Taiwan province, about one third supported Chen-Lu back in 2000 but none support them this time around.  Those who voted for Chen-Lu are mostly not voting due to the poor record of Chen-Lu administration and could not bring themselves to vote for the pro-unification pan-Blue block.  One of course cannot call the race for Lien-Soong based on this unscientific survey.  One can go to the rural counties of Southern Taiwan Province and find a smiliar polarization in favor of Chen-Lu relative to 2004.  

I attended a Lien-Soong campaign rally and was a spectator at a Chen-Lu campaign rally.  Unlike 2000, the pan-Blue rallies seem to have more energy.  This seems to be verified in the polls.  Regardless of the poll and relative lead of Lien-Soong over Chen-Lu, large majorities expect Lien-Soong to win the 2004 election.  Even the DPP poll which gives Lien-Soong a 2 point lead has a large majority that expect Lien-Soong to win.  Morale is clearly lower in the pan-Green camp.  This could very well change as there will be a massive 2/28 "Million hands across Taiwan" lead by the Lee Teng-Hui to rally for the Chen-Lu ticket so it would be too early for count Chen-Lu out.

Chen-Lu is far stronger in the Southern counties.  The political TV talk show "Taiwan Voice" moderated by rabid Taiwan Independence supporter Wong Ben-Hu is very popular in the Southern counties.  Despite my rapid pro-unification view, I enjoy his show as an alternative to most other poltical TV talk shows that are mostly pan-Blue and reflect Northern opinon. "Taiwan Voice" is high on emotion and could be an explosive force in pushing up turnout in the Southern counties and potentially push the election to Chen.  As of now, Lien-Soong and Chen-Lu are neck-to-neck in Southern Counties.  In Central Conties, Lien-Soong has a 5 point lead or so and in Northern Counties Lien-Soong has up to 20 point leads.

One way to get a good idea who are the partisans for each camp is to look at the Happy Chinese New Year signs outside each household/store.  While many are non-partisan in nature, a significant about of them are political in nature.  The are the Chinese answer to campaign signs the the American yards.  The disctribution of such signs pretty much match the results one gets from polls.  There are a lot more Lien-Soong signs in Taipei City where I was staying but the further South one moves along the coast the more Chen-Lu sign one sees.  In a rural town in Southern county of ChangHua I saw several streets where all signs of political nature are for Chen-Lu.  Likewise, in upper class districts in Taipei City where I spent a lot of time, Lien-Soong seem to dominate.

 

[jaichind]

There was a monster rally on 3/13 all across Taiwan Province and Fujian Province for the 3/20 ROC Prez elections.  The Pan-Blue historically has been weaker than the Pan-Green in political rallies.  The successful Pan-Green 2/28 rally which involved at least 1.5 million improved morale and had Chen-Lu closing within 3-5% of the Lien-Soong in polls making the race too close to call.  The Pan-Blue camp planned the 3/13 rally to try to reopen the lead.  The Chen's wife the First Lady made a mistake a couple of days ago in saying that the Pan-Blue rallies will be attended by "two or three cats at most."  This seems to have provoked the Pan-Blue supporters.  The Pan-Blue rallies attracted about 2.5 million and could have been as high as 3 million.  In almost all counties/cities across the ROC the size of the rallies broke all records.  

As of 3/10 all polls are banned on ROC.  Only way to estimate the state of the race is by odd makers.  Back in 9/2003 the odd makes expected a 53-47 win by Lien-Soong.  By 1/2004 it became 54-46.  The successful Pan-Green rally on 2/28/2003 had the odds makers calling it 51-49.  In lieu of the size of the monster Pan-Blue rallies, the odds are now for a 55-45 Lien-Soong victory.  

I still hold to my original prediction ot a 53-47 Lien-Soong victory I made last year.

[jaichind]

Which day is the election?

3/20  Election results should be out around 9:30PM or 9:30AM NY time.

[jaichind]

my ROC election predictions for 3/20

                                     Lien                   Chen
                                   
Taipei City                     59                        41

KaoShiung City              48                        52

Taiwan Province
     Taipei County           56                        44
     Keelung City             61                        39
     Yilan County             47                        53
     Taoyuan County       57                        43
     Tsintsu City               63                       37
     Tsintsu County         66                        34
     Miaoli County            64                        36
     Taichung City            55                        45
     Taichung County       53                        47
     Changhwa County    51                        49
     Nanto County           55                         45
     Yunlin County           49                         51
     Jiayi City                   49                         51
     Jiayi County              47                         53
     Tainan City               49                         51
     Tainan County          43                         57
     Kaoshiung County    49                         51
     Pingdong County      47                         53
     Hualian County         69                         31
     Taidong County        67                         33
     Penghu County         56                         44

Fujian Province
     Jinmen County          89                         11
     Lienjian County         91                          9
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ROC                               53                         47

It really comes down to turnout.  I assume higher turnound in pro-Chen counties/cities.  If pro-Lien counties/cities turnout equals pro-Chen counties/cities then it should really be like 54/55-46/45 victory for Lien.