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Author Topic: India elections  (Read 30699 times)
Beet
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« on: November 28, 2003, 02:10:20 pm »
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Which party is more likely to
(1) keep sectarian violence and Kashmir violence in check?
(2) push through necessary ambitious reforms to sustain strong economic growth?
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« Reply #1 on: November 28, 2003, 02:19:37 pm »
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1) Congress
2) Congress
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« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2003, 05:43:42 am »
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I didnt know that you guys were interested in Indian politics. I am happy to see that you are.(U remember I'm an Indian-American right?? Smiley)

I highly recommend it to everyone else as well. The Indian political theatre is one of the most complex and interesting ANYWHERE in the world.!!

Unfortunately I dont have time to discuss tomorrows elections in detail. I would have but I didnt know people are interested.

You can refer to these links for some decent coverage of the election:

http://www.ndtv.com/elex2003/default.asp

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/election

http://inhome.rediff.com/election/poll03.htm

Happy surfing!! Cheesy



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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2003, 07:29:20 am »
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With "theatre" being the key word Wink

This round of elections won't be crucial to the general; India has a multi-party system and these elections are INC v BJP dogfights.

The outcome of the Uttar Pradash election(and subsequent turmoil ending in Yadev taking over...again) does seem to have had a more direct impact than the current round.
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2003, 08:37:37 am »
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Hi evryone, I deeply regret to announce a sweeping BJP victory in these vital provincial elections.

They have swept the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (near three-fourths majority) and look like they have evn wrested the state of Chhatisgarh which had a progressive Christian Chief Minister (whom of course they vilified as being anti-hindu and part of a worldwide Christian conspiracy)

The Silver Lining is a sweeping congress victory in the prestigious territory of Delhi (where the central government is based)

To be fair there were justified reasons for anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where governance was terrible. This was more of an anti-congress vote which happened to benefit the BJP as the main opposition.

In Delhi which had a sucessful congress govt. the voters bucked the trend and delivered a two-third legislative majority to incumbent Congress CM Sheila Diksh**t.

Chhatisgargh is the only case of a performing government kicked out because of the BJP's communal and hate-based campaign.
Shows it can still work in some areas.

Not a reason to dispair yet for India's secular identity but serious reason for worry. If nationally the congress party is unable to provide a decent govt. then that leaves no real national opposition for the BJP to win a majority at the center on its own (the end of India as we know it Sad ). Okay that may be a bit harsh but lets just say I'm not looking forward to that prospect.
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2003, 08:44:56 am »
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Blue- Congress
Saffron- BJP
Yellow - Other
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2003, 12:34:02 pm »
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As I expected...

However on the bright side the BJP have collapsed in Uttar Pradash and Yadev's Socialists(sorry I can't remember how to spell their proper name. I think it's Samajvadi) look to be sweeping it in the general election(with the BSP getting seriously hurt by the Taj Mahal affair), and these results show that a wave of anti-incumbency is sweeping India...

Also the Commies(CPI-M) should do well in West Bengal again and Southern Indians hate the BJP.

Congress have agreed to co-operate with the Left haven't they?
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« Reply #7 on: December 13, 2003, 04:53:34 pm »
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I am afraid that NDA at this stage will surge to victory in 2004.  I feel that BJP and INC are evenly matched but the distribution of BJP and INC support hurts INC.  INC strength tends to be spread across India, while the BJP is strong in the Hindi heartland and weak in the South.  This actually helps the BJP in alliance making.  Its strength in places like UP and Bihar makes it possible that if it just ropes in a few allies it could surge to victory in this first-past-the-post system.  The rise of BSP in the North also hurts the INC who traditionally votes INC.  The BJP is weak in the South so it has NO CHANCE of winning unless it attaches itself to some reginal party, like BJD in Orissa, DMK/AIADMK in TN, TDP in AP, and JD(U) in KT.    INC, on the other hand, are strong in the South.  But it is strong enough to make a bid for power on its own but not strong enough to stop an alliance of the BJP and a reginal party.  It is in the regional party's intrest to ally with BJP as if they do not hand togeather they hang seperately.  

I think in UP next year it is a no-win for INC.  If it makes an alliance with BSP, then BJP and SP will make a de facto alliance and surge to victory.  If it goes it alone, BJP, BSP and SP will split the seats.  If it makes an alliance with SP, that would anger the BSP which in turn could hurt INC in other states, like MP, Rajastan, Gujarat and so on where the the anti-BJP vote will be split and throw the elections to the BJP.  
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« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2003, 05:20:51 am »
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Well from what I hear the INC has FINALLY agreed to accept formal alliances, which is a good thing.
The SP will probably sweep UP, so it's vital that Congress build bridges with Yadev.
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« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2003, 01:34:21 pm »
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Problem with an INC-Left Front alliance is that it might not work on the ground.  Left Front (mostly CPM and CPI) only strong in Tipura, West Bengal, and Kerela.  In all three cases their main rival in the staet is the INC.  In WB, it is reall a three cornered contest with the Left Front, INC, and BJP-AITC.  In all three states the local INC would not accept any accomodation with their longtime rival, the Left.  This makes allaince making very difficult.  I guess In WB it is possible the Left Front and INC can form an alliance but the INC splinter AITC has been in the decline and INC had hoped to rope it back into the mother party.  The AITC is very hostile to Left Front so again at the local level it is difficult.

Simply put, for an alliance to work, it would involve support by the Left Front for INC in all states where it is marginal.  In return, Left Front would obviously demand that INC support it in the three states mentioned.  Local INC activitists would oppose that and if a deal is made over their head they might defect to BJP.  Truely between a rock and a hard place.
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« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2003, 06:56:47 pm »
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anyone tell me the reason for this anti-BJP sentiment?
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« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2003, 08:48:43 pm »
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anyone tell me the reason for this anti-BJP sentiment?

Even though my views are to the Right I am very hostile to the BJP and prefer the center-left INC or even the Left Front in India.  This is because of the BJP's Hindu extremist nature.  One example is what happend to Gujurat a couple of years ago.  An incompent BJP state government was clearly head toward defeat.  But the BJP led by Modi wipped up a pogram targeted at the Muslims that lead to the death of several thousand innocent n Gujurat, mostly Muslims.  That the Modi and his BJP goons would kill several thousands people just to win an election just makes me sick.  BTW, it worked.  A year ago the BJP won in a landslide based on the anti-Moslim riots.  It captured about 125 out of 180 seats.  It is intresting to note that the about 100 districts affected by riots the BJP won nearly all of them.  It only won about 25 of the 80 some seats not affected by the riots.  Projecting these results it is clear that the BJP would have been ousted if it was not for the anti-Mulsim riots.
Truely a record to be shameful of.
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« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2003, 07:41:24 pm »
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Breaking news.  In Tamil Nadu, the DMK has left the NDA and its ministers in the NDA government has resigned.  This could lead to realignments ahead of the 2004 Lok Shaba election in Tamil Nadu.  Now there could be a DMK-INC-Left Front alliance in the 2004 polls.  This also could lead to an alliance of the ruling AIADMK and the BJP.  Of course, given the ego of AIADMK supermo Jayalalitha, she might not want to give any significant number of seats to the BJP and the election in TN might turn into a three-way race with BJP way behind.  MDMK might back BJP but its appeal is limited in TN.  Both Jayalalitha of AIADMK in TN and Yadav of SP in UP think/hope that the election in 2004 will result in neither the NDA nor INC-led bloc with a majority.  In which the AIADMK or SP could be kingmaker with the prospect of Jayalalitha or Yadav becoming PM, or so they hope.  This means both SP and AIADMK would want to contest the maximum number of seats in UP and TN and hopefully win enough chips at the post-election horse trading table.  

Under this logic, AIADMK might not want to give BJP and seats and the election in TN will mostly be a battle between DMK-INC-Left Front and AIADMK.  This does provide a ray of hope to INC which is sad shape after losing three of four assembly election in what many calls the election "playoffs" before next years "finals" of the Lok Shaba polls.  
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« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2004, 10:23:54 pm »
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A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 
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« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2004, 10:26:31 pm »
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Jaichind--out recruiting people to vote for Atlas elections.  Just ask you to come and vote for Supersoulty when the time is right.  Take a look if you would.  Thanks.

--sorry not up on India much or I'd contribute.
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« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2004, 11:34:06 am »
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Jaichind--out recruiting people to vote for Atlas elections.  Just ask you to come and vote for Supersoulty when the time is right.  Take a look if you would.  Thanks.

--sorry not up on India much or I'd contribute.

He is an independent. Do you really want his vote?
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« Reply #16 on: January 21, 2004, 08:32:02 am »
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Actually living in India at the moment, so I have to say something on this count:
Basically the BJP can't win much longer, the Congress can't win for the time being, and anyone else's government is going to end in rapid breakdown as it did twice before:
Vajpayee is personally much more popular than his party - I myself like the guy even though he's allied with people I'd put to the gallows if I endorsed the Death Penalty -
but he's 79 and ill. They need him to win. That there'll be early elections is partly due to this respect.
The Congress party is so dead that it's leader is the widow of the son of the last capable leader they ever had. (That she's also Italian doesn't matter to me) That it's still around is only because so many voters have nowhere else to go.
That at least is my pesimistic assessment.
My optimistic one is that Congress will overcome its earlier mistakes and form a bit broader coalition and Sonia will actually prove a capable leader and the BJP is back to fringe as soon as Vajpayee dies.
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« Reply #17 on: January 21, 2004, 09:29:16 am »
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What's the chances of Congress forming a coalition with Yadev and the rest of the Left?

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« Reply #18 on: January 21, 2004, 09:41:58 am »
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It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely
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« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2004, 10:26:26 am »
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Interesting possibility...

BTW do you know where I can find maps of constituancies etc?
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« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2004, 10:37:02 am »
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Well I believe at the Indian Parliament and the Election Commission you only get lists with the districts they're in... Yet I've seen such maps in the Deccan Herald and the Times of India concerning the state polls... Not the new results strangely, but in the pre-poll coverage they showed maps of the previous result. So maybe you should just email these people, I don't know...
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« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2004, 11:00:44 am »
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I'll have another look at the electoral commision site...
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« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2004, 10:06:33 pm »
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Former UP CM Kalyan Singh is rejoining the BJP. He'd walked out before the last general election and set up his own outfit. It took (I think) 2 Lok Sabha seats but its five percent vote share across the state probably cost the BJP 10-12 seats. I'm not sure how they fared in the State polls since.
His party isn't following him back into the fold actually, but as he's the only prominent head most voters will. In fact it's really a caste-based "vote bank". He's the only Lodh who's made it this big, so the Lodhs vote for him...Hey, that's India!
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« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2004, 01:47:12 am »
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It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely

Wouldn't this coalition try to halt privatization and de-regulation? From what I hear that would be a turn back into the past.
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« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2004, 05:36:29 am »
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It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely

Wouldn't this coalition try to halt privatization and de-regulation? From what I hear that would be a turn back into the past.

Funny that you should say that, with that signature...
I don't think India is overregulated, it's more like misregulated. A lot of red tape has been applied, but just not in the places where it belongs.
Basically I have the feeling that the Economic reforms of the last 15 years -initiated by the last Congress government but continued by the BJP- have done a lot to make the small middle class richer, but for the poor the best that can be said is they haven't hurt. (Hey-that means they've actually been quite succesful!)

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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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