Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL?

[sg0508]

The good news is, he's well-respected, moderate and could win the surburban votes that used to carry the state for the GOP prior to the 90s.  There are several democrats in the primary, which could allow Kirk to open a lead here and he's generally scandal-free.

That being said, it is tough for a republican to win a solid blue state that's not a gubernatorial race.  Even Peter Fitzgerald almost choked against Moseley-Braun in 98 (being far more to the right). 

I'm a pro choice republican, so this is awesome in my opinion.

Can he and will he do it?

[Holmes]

I really wouldn't get my hopes up.

[nkpatel1279]

In states like California, Connecticut,Delaware, Illinios, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, winning a US Senate  nowadays is tough for Republicans.

In order for a Republican to win a US Senate Seat in these states. The Democrat needs to be unpopular or corrupt.  ie  Dodd-CT during the 2010 Cycle. Moseley Braun-IL during the 1998 Cycle. Torrecelli-NJ during 2002 when he dropped out.


Giannoulias will do well in Chicago- neutralize Kirk's strength in Collar Counties. Turnout in Downstate IL will be low.  This will be like the Hillary-Lazio 2000 NY race.  The biggest question is how well Giannoulias can play in Downstate IL.

[OC]

If the Madigans who I think are very much ideological the same as Giannoulias have been able to neutralize the downstate republican vote to win statewide office, surely Giannoulias could.

Fiscal restraint, low taxes and energy production and health care will drive the vote in Illinois.

[sg0508]

Look at the Ryan/Poshard map in 98.  Poshard killed him because of the pro gun control issue in southern IL, but Ryan kept it close in Cook, killed him in the suburbs and won by 4 pts.

The same thing could happen this time.

[OC]

Poshard was pro-life and lost 200,000 votes in Cook County, because of that. The NW suburbs want to break away from Cook County, do to tax issues. Statewide races will determine that issue and that alone can make or break the senate race for either candidate.

[sg0508]

So, you don't even think Kirk has a chance?  IL is a excellent example of what has gone wrong with the GOP.  We no longer appeal to moderate, suburban voters.

States like IL, PA, NJ, DE, CT, NY, OR, WA, MI, etc..we used to crush democrats in suburbia.

You don't think he could win enough votes in Schaumburg, etc (and maybe get 40% in Cooke) to have a shot at carrying the state?

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it just me or is Illinois to the GOP what Texas is to the Democrats. The thought of them carrying it is really a pipedream.

[OC]

I think in order for  Dems to lose they have to root for things to go bad like the Blagojevich and todd stroger, barring that it leans Democratic.

[sg0508]

Look, I know the dynamics of the GOP has changed, not for the better (as I'm from the old moderate wing) and that IL has changed, but I think there's a shot at this one.

Kirk is well-known in Congress and he has a moderate appeal.  Plus, it could be somewhat of a down year for democrats, not 94, but there will be a shot to steal a few unlikely seats (IL, CT and DE to name a few).

[OC]

Female moderates are more attrative to Democratic Illinois voters than the opposite: Corrine Wood, Judy Baar and Judy Biggart. I think that will still hold true, but we will have to see.

[pogo stick]

I'll support Mouse-face, but I Don't like him and most of his of Illinois comrades. Too much corruption in the state.

[IllinoisFreedomFighter]

I don't think anything like the Poshard/Ryan 1998 map could happen in Illinois, especially with Gianoulious on the Democrat side.  Poshard was to the right of Ryan on a whole bunch of issues that are important in Southern Illinois.  The reasons I think Kirk may have a rough time winning are: 1. many in the Republican base feel betrayed by him voting FOR the bailout and FOR cap-and-trade, activists that would volunteer and donate may focus on congressional races or the governor's race.  2.  Obama will step in for the Democratic nominee if he/she looks to be in trouble, he does not want to lose this Senate seat, and would be far more likely to "allow" the GOP to regain the Governorship.  3.   The Illinois GOP is only starting to actually show themselves to be anything different from the Democrats this year, with issues such as Governor Quinn's proposed income tax hike.  MANY IN ILLINOIS still view the Dems and Repubs as two side of the SAME CORRUPT COIN.

Not saying it can't be done, but Kirk would have to show himself as significantly different enough, especially on economic issues to get people motivated to actually volunteer and donate to his campaign while maintaining his moderate social stances to win suburban cook county.

[OC]

He was in a Republican blue collar suburb and he marginally won his district back in 2008, I don't think he will buck the trend and pick up that many more than he did back then.  And besides the fact this is Obama's backyard, Rahn Emanual will be heavily involved in this race.

[Vepres]

Is Kirk pro-gay rights, and how is he viewed by Chicago's black community? The poor in Chicago in general?

[OC]

The fact he ran against Seals doesn't bold well for him and he doesn't support Obama's health care reform effort that Blacks, expecially the ones that uses Cook County hospital uses.

I think Kirk will have better luck with hispanics and gay rights issues.

[nkpatel1279]

As I mentioned before- The Giannoulias vs Kirk race is going to be like the Hillary Clinton vs Rick Lazio 2000 NY US Senate Race.

Kirk is going to be Rick Lazio- a Moderate to Conservative US Congressman from a Democratic leaning suburban  congressional district. Lazio represented a NYC Suburban Congressional District. Kirk represents a Chicago Suburban Congressional District.
Giannoulias is going to be Hillary Clinton- A polarizing Democratic elected official.

Hillary won the 2000 NY US Senate Race by a 55-42 percent margin by winning NYC with at least 75% of the popular vote.  Cutting into the  Lazio's base in Upstate NY getting at least 45%. and 45% in Long Island.

Giannoulias is going to get at least 75% of the popular vote in Chicago.  (40% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 50% of the popular vote in Chicago Suburbs (20% of the population).
Giannoulias is going to get at least 45% of the popular vote in NW and Downstate Illinios (40% of the population.)

Giannoulias is going to win by a 57-42 percent margin.
Giannoulias will have not only Barack Obama, but the Daley Machine, the Madigan Machine, and the Hynes Machine.

If we were to determine the 2010 IL US Senate Race based on Congressional Districts.
Giannoulias will win the CBC Districts 1,2,and 7 with at least 85% of the popular.
Giannoulias will win the CHC District 4 (Guitteriez) by at least 80% of the popular vote.
Giannoulias will get at least 65% of the popular vote in IL-5(Rostenkowski,Blagojovich,and Emanuel) and IL-9(Schakowsky). Northern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 60% of the popular vote in IL-3(Lipinski) Southern Chicago/Suburbs.
Giannoulias will get at least 50% of the popular vote in IL- 10(Kirk's District) and IL-11(Halverson).
Giannoulias will get at least 45% of the popular vote in IL-6,IL-8,IL-13,IL-14 and IL-16- NW Collar County Districts.
Giannoulias will get at least 55% of the popular vote in IL-12(Costello)-Downstate) and IL-17(Lane Evans/Phil Hare)- Rock Island/Springfield District.
Giannoulias will get at least 40% of the popular vote in IL-15(Tim Johnson),IL-18(Ray LaHood, Aaron Schrock,) and IL-19(John Shimkus).

[OC]

And as the Clinton-Lazio race, the GOP has to root for corruption to even come close to winning this race. He has to root for the failures of the Blagojevich and Roland Burris corruption trial to arrouse voters to winning this race.  Barring that clear cut Giannoulias win.

Just like before, when Rasmussen had a poll out on the PA, R2k,  will show the race where it really is.

[SamInTheSouth]

Yes Kirk could win.  The recent Rasmussen has it a dead heat with Kirk slightly ahead.

[nkpatel1279]

In 1998 when Carol Mosely Braun narrowly lost to Peter Fitzgerald.
George Ryan narrowly won the Governors Race against Glenn Poshard.
In 2010- The Democratic Nominee ,whether is Pat Quinn or Dan Hynes is going to win the 2010 IL Governors Race by a double digit margin.
In 1998- Republican IL AG Jim Ryan and IL Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka won re-election by a double digit/landslide margin.  The open seats were Secretary of State which Democrat Jesse White won by a landslide margin and Comptroller- which Dan Hynes won by a landslide margin.
2010- Democratic IL AG Lisa Madigan and IL Secretary of State Jesse White are running for re-election- They are going to win by a landslide margin. Which candidate is going to get the most votes statewide.  Regarding the open Treasurer and Comptrollers position. Democrats are going to win both of these positions by a wide margin.
Because Democrats are going to win every statewide elected office in IL- Kirk will have a tough time winning.

[Former Moderate]

NEAL PATEL, NO MORE

NO MORE, NEAL PATEL

[OC]

And Rasmussen had PA a double digit deficit for Specter and you can take that with a grain of salt as well.  I don't rely solely on Rasmussen polls, I take them in conjunction with other polls.

[pogo stick]

I honestly hate Mark Kirk, but anything is better then another democrat in Illinois.


I also hate The Illinois GOP, so yea

[Jayhawker]

I think he has a chance, at least. What it comes down to is the political climate in November `10. Personally, I think Democrats will end up taking the seat by a couple of points. But, a few gaffes and a lot of money going to kirk, and he might have a chance.

[sg0508]

Again, the key is going to be suburbia around Cooke County.  If Kirk can sweep these votes, which we used to win, but not lately and keep the margin in Cooke to somewhere around 60-40, there's a chance.