Can our pro choice republican Mark Kirk pull it off in IL?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Broadview and Cicero, where latinos live will prevent Kirk from sweeping the county by that margin, the Census will show the growth of latinos in that area.

[muon2]

The data of the last few off-year election cycles suggests that the magic number in Cook is 400 K. That's the vote differential needed by a Dem to win statewide. Blago was able to clear that number in both 2002 and 2006 and it held off any net from the collar suburban counties.

Broadview and Cicero, where latinos live will prevent Kirk from sweeping the county by that margin, the Census will show the growth of latinos in that area.

Those communities are included in the differential calculation for Cook above. The unknown in communities like Cicero will be turnout, which tends to drop off in off-year elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

[muon2]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

Seals is running in the 10th CD, which only has significant minority populations in Waukegan and North Chicago. None of the Cook County minority areas will be influenced by Seals. This also assumes that Seals survives his primary challenge from State Rep Hamos so that there can be an effect on the general election.

[SamInTheSouth]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

Why would Seals bring out minority support?  He is running for the House of Representatives.  Most people don't even know who the hell their Congressman is let alone show up to vote in an off year election.

[nkpatel1279]

I tend to think otherwise, Dan Seals will bring out minority support and they won't be supporting Kirk.

Why would Seals bring out minority support?  He is running for the House of Representatives.  Most people don't even know who the hell their Congressman is let alone show up to vote in an off year election.

If Seals was running for the US Senate or another Statewide Elected Office than bringing out minority support will be revelant- Seals is running for the US House of Representative from a Suburban Chicago Congressional District- where White Pro Choice Moderates are key to winning the general.  Winning IL-10 is like winning PA-13.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Seals was running for the US Senate or another Statewide Elected Office than bringing out minority support will be revelant- Seals is running for the US House of Representative from a Suburban Chicago Congressional District- where White Pro Choice Moderates are key to winning the general.  Winning IL-10 is like winning PA-13.

I agree but not to the extent that it relates to our president Barack Obama being in Illinois resident as well
This is my hypothesis, I can be wrong, but I predict:

I was referring to the fact that Seals and Obama appear to the average voter as being multiracial and could blunt alot of the racial prejudices that go along with being black, as far as the North shore. If people don't know who Dan Seals is, they sure know who is Obama.

And that in turn can help the Democratic voters down the ballot due the fact that swing voters will see Dems being multiracial as well as bring the black turnout up.

Barack Obama's election brought Dems and Independent voters out and he only ran for one office, Seals can do the same, I believe, not just in the House.  Many voters I talk to outside his district like Seals.

Regardless, I don't think Obama will let his own state slip into the republican column.

[sg0508]

Kirk is the perfect candidate though for an upset.  The economy is starting to improve again, but it won't be fast enough to turn Obama's way.  That will be in 2012, similar to Clinton in 96.

Carrying IL though is very difficult, but during an off year, should be doable.  If I'm remembering correctly though, didn't Fitzgerald almost blow that race to Moseley-Braun in 98?  I remember he had around a 15 pt lead with weeks to go and somehow in the end, she almost managed to steal it.

[minionofmidas]

I hope you didn't mean "steal" literally here.

[Hash]

Again, the key is going to be suburbia around Cooke County.  If Kirk can sweep these votes, which we used to win, but not lately and keep the margin in Cooke to somewhere around 60-40, there's a chance.

A Republican can't come close to winning 40% in Cook County.

[nkpatel1279]

Again, the key is going to be suburbia around Cooke County.  If Kirk can sweep these votes, which we used to win, but not lately and keep the margin in Cooke to somewhere around 60-40, there's a chance.

A Republican can't come close to winning 40% in Cook County.

Cook County is entirely in IL-1,IL-2,IL-3,IL-4,IL-5,IL-7,and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat- gets over 80% of the popular vote in IL-1,IL-2,IL-4,and IL-7.
A Generic Democrat gets over 70% of the popular vote in IL-5 and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat gets over 60% of the popular vote in IL-3.

A portion of Cook County is in IL-6,IL-8,IL-10,and IL-13.
Peter Roskam's base is DuPage County. 
Melissa Bean overperforms in McHenry and Lake County.
Mark Kirk's base is Lake County
Judy Biggerts base is DuPage and Will County.

A Generic Democrat will get at least  70% of the popular vote in Cook County which consists of 40% of the electorate.  For a Democrat to lose in Statewide- they need to get less than 40% in Downstate IL and Collar Counties.  Carol Moseley Braun lost every County outside of Cook County.

[Hash]

Cook County is entirely in IL-1,IL-2,IL-3,IL-4,IL-5,IL-7,and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat- gets over 80% of the popular vote in IL-1,IL-2,IL-4,and IL-7.
A Generic Democrat gets over 70% of the popular vote in IL-5 and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat gets over 60% of the popular vote in IL-3.[/omg]

omgz no wai rly

You must be logged in to read this quote.

False. Try again.

[Deldem]

I don't think so. The GOP simply isn't strong enough there.

[minionofmidas]

Cook County is entirely in IL-1,IL-2,IL-3,IL-4,IL-5,IL-7,and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat- gets over 80% of the popular vote in IL-1,IL-2,IL-4,and IL-7.
A Generic Democrat gets over 70% of the popular vote in IL-5 and IL-9.
A Generic Democrat gets over 60% of the popular vote in IL-3.[/omg]

omgz no wai rly

You must be logged in to read this quote.

False. Try again.

She won four small southeastern counties by a combined 1200 votes. It hardly changes much.

Though it's odd. Two of those haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton (though they provided only 150 votes' margin, and the other two Gallatin and Alexander are pretty predictably Democratic still.)

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yes, two voted for McCain. Bizarre.

[ill ind]

 It's not bizarre at all.  There has been a decided shift away from the Democrats in many of the traditional Democratic downstate counties.  There are several counties where the percentage of people who voted for favorite son Barack Obama in 2008 was less than that for Al Gore 8 years earlier.
  Problem for the GOP is that  Du Page and the other suburban counties have shifted Democratic from their traditional GOP leanings.    It takes a whole lot of Gallatin and Alexander Counties with under 10,000 votes to shift to cancel out the shift of 800,000 vote DuPage however.

Ill Ind