'Great Recession' Appears to have Bottomed Out

[Frodo]

Leading economic indicators rise in July

By TALI ARBEL
AP BUSINESS WRITER

NEW YORK -- A private research group says its forecast of economic activity rose for a fourth straight month in July, but at slower pace than in the past three months.

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators gained 0.6 percent last month, slightly less than economists expected. The index, which is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months, climbed 0.8 percent in June and 1.2 percent in May.

Still, the Conference Board said Thursday that the indicators suggest the recession has bottomed out, and growth in economic activity will begin soon.

The six-month growth rate rose to 3 percent through July, up from 2.1 percent through June. That's the highest growth rate since mid-2004, the Conference Board said.

Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the index increased in July, including employment data and stock prices.

The biggest gainer was the "interest rate spread," the difference between yields on 10-year Treasurys and the federal funds rate at which banks lend to one another, which is at a record low near zero. A big difference between the two is viewed as positive because investors are willing to lend for longer periods.

Consumer expectations hindered growth in the index more than any other factor.

An accompanying index meant to measure the current state of the business cycle was flat in July, after dropping for eight straight months, the Conference Board said.

[Sam Spade]

Q:  "Daddy, daddy, when can you tell that economy or sector has 'bottomed'"?

A:  "When everyone is afraid to call the 'bottom.'"

[opebo]

Another way to call the bottom, SS, is when only wacko ideologues are poo-pooing it.

[Sam Spade]

Another way to call the bottom, SS, is when only wacko ideologues are poo-pooing it.

Then let me know when you are poo-pooing the "bottom".

[CARLHAYDEN]

As I have previously noted (in another thread on this forum), one of the six supposedly positive indicators, employment/unemployment for July, was the result of rather strong 'adjustments' which will be factored out in a couple of months with rather shocking results.

So, don't be too optimistic.

[opebo]

Another way to call the bottom, SS, is when only wacko ideologues are poo-pooing it.

Then let me know when you are poo-pooing the "bottom".

Hahaha, that sounds funny.  But while I freely admit I'm an extreme ideologue, I haven't made any firm predictions about the economy, and really given no opinion at all about it until the last couple of days.  You by contrast have been really beating the drum for doomsday - and surely you'll admit you are an extreme ideologue at the opposite end of the spectrum from me?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As I have previously noted (in another thread on this forum), one of the six supposedly positive indicators, employment/unemployment for July, was the result of rather strong 'adjustments' which will be factored out in a couple of months with rather shocking results.

So, don't be too optimistic.

Losing 250k jobs in a month is a positive indicator? I'm afraid to ask what's a negative indicator.

[phk]

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 8/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 8/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q2 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Key word: "appears"

[CARLHAYDEN]

As I have previously noted (in another thread on this forum), one of the six supposedly positive indicators, employment/unemployment for July, was the result of rather strong 'adjustments' which will be factored out in a couple of months with rather shocking results.

So, don't be too optimistic.

Losing 250k jobs in a month is a positive indicator? I'm afraid to ask what's a negative indicator.

It will be interesting to see how they spin the numbers for the next couple of months (as the adjustment rolls off).

[War on Want]

Figure 1: Real GDP in billions Ch.2005$, SAAR (blue bars), Macroeconomic Advisers 8/17 release (green), and e-forecasting 8/19 release (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming end occurs at 2009M06. Source: BEA 2009Q2 advance release, Macroeconomic Advisers, e-forecasting, NBER.

Interesting stuff here.