2012-PPP: Huckabee within 3 points of Obama

[Mr. Morden]

Remember a long time ago when everyone thought that the 2008 election was going to be between Rudy Guliani and Hillary Clinton.

I can even remember when (according to the CW on this forum) the 2008 election was going to be either Bill Frist or George Allen vs. Mark Warner.

[pbrower2a]

General Election

President Barack Obama: 47%
Mike Huckabee: 44%

President Barack Obama: 47%
Mitt Romney: 40%

President Barack Obama: 49%
Newt Gingrich: 41%

President Barack Obama: 52%
Sarah Palin: 38%

Favorables among all voters:

Huckabee: 45-28
Romney: 37-34
Palin: 40-49
Gingrich: 33-42

Favorables among GOP voters:

Palin: 72-16
Huckabee: 66-13
Gingrich: 56-21
Romney: 52-18

PPP conducted a national survey of 909 voters from August 14th to 17th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_820.pdf

Split the difference, leave any remainder as if it is to go to third parties.

Translation into states voting (using the Cook PVI and a +10 gain for an unambiguous Favorite Son effect):

Obama  51, Huckabee 48:

Obama       307
Huckabee   218
Tie                13

Pale colors under 5%, white is a virtual tie

Ohio, Florida, Colorado, and Virginia will be nailbiters.  

Obama 53, Romney 46

Obama   338
Romney  174
Tie            26


It looks much like 2008, doesn't it? Obama barely loses Indiana; Missouri and North Carolina get interesting.


Obama 55, Gingrich 45

Obama   374
Gingrich  153
Tie            13

Gingrich's performances begin to look mediocre in the South. At best for him  he trades Arizona for Indiana.   This time the networks call the election before the votes from the West Coast start coming in.


Obama 57, Palin 43

Obama 401
Palin     135
Tie           3

Such is the brink of a GOP disaster -- with the disparity in popular vote reminiscent of Eisenhower versus Stevenson in 1956.

.....

The Cook PVI rates states on how much more or less Republican or Democratic they voted as opposed to the national average in 2000 and 2008 or in a Congressional district in 2008. Nothing says that the states will vote in any particular pattern, and it can't predict what the percentages will be in 2012. These maps are estimates. Electoral votes are shown for 2008. Relative popularity and unpopularity of politicians will of course change due to events and of course campaign behavior (including selection and positioning of campaign ads).

[biggzcorey]

Remember a long time ago when everyone thought that the 2008 election was going to be between Rudy Guliani and Hillary Clinton.

I can even remember when (according to the CW on this forum) the 2008 election was going to be either Bill Frist or George Allen vs. Mark Warner.

I think Warner will run in 2016, he won an open seat for senator with 65% of the vote against another former governor. Virginia is a swing state, and the fact that he won by such a huge margin is a good sign for his future.

[The Duke]

Obama v. Huckabee?

I don't want to live.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Obama v. Huckabee?

I don't want to live.

[BM]

Romneycare is a disaster and it's funny to watch the Republicans who think they're enlightened because they're FISCAL CONSERVATIVES THAT DON'T CARE ABOUT GOD AND SOCIAL ISSUES try to stick to believing that this empty suit is their messiah.

Also, this will never get old:

"I purchased a gun when I was a young man. I've been a hunter pretty much all my life." (Romney's campaign later said he'd been hunting twice, once when he was 15, and once in 2006 at a Republican fundraiser

"I'm not a big-game hunter. I've made that very clear. I've always been a rodent and rabbit hunter. Small varmints, if you will."

[fezzyfestoon]

Romneycare is a disaster and it's funny to watch the Republicans who think they're enlightened because they're FISCAL CONSERVATIVES THAT DON'T CARE ABOUT GOD AND SOCIAL ISSUES try to stick to believing that this empty suit is their messiah.

Oh, you must be right.  Thanks for clearing that up for us.  Good post.

[BM]

You're doing a fine job of convincing yourself. Read up a little on what's going on in Massachusetts and try to defend Romneycare as a success from a fiscally conservative perspective, since that's apparently where Romney's credibility lies as a strong Republican candidate.  You can't.

I guess to the Romney fanboys, the best alternative to "big government social cons" like Palin and Huckabee is a big government social...mod(?)...or whatever he is come 2012.

[Alexander Hamilton]

You're doing a fine job of convincing yourself. Read up a little on what's going on in Massachusetts and try to defend Romneycare as a success from a fiscally conservative perspective, since that's apparently where Romney's credibility lies as a strong Republican candidate.  You can't.

I guess to the Romney fanboys, the best alternative to "big government social cons" like Palin and Huckabee is a big government social...mod...or whatever he is come 2012.

Your sig destroys all the credibility you never had. Troll.

[BM]

Well my sig is a little outdated but at one time it coincided with an unironic sig of a certain someone.

But this whole thing is just getting tedious.  Every thread is filled with a bunch of clones whining about how slobbering wingnuts are hijacking the party and how awful it will be if someone as electable and amazing as Romney never gets his chance.  I just wonder how much some of you really know about the guy because you can do better if you really do believe in what you claim to. 

Refusing to recognize your own party or candidate's faults is just obnoxious and damaging.  Haphazardly projecting one's ideals of his or her dream candidate on to someone sure worked out with some liberals and Obama...

[Lunar]

Remember a long time ago when everyone thought that the 2008 election was going to be between Rudy Guliani and Hillary Clinton.

I can even remember when (according to the CW on this forum) the 2008 election was going to be either Bill Frist or George Allen vs. Mark Warner.

I think Warner will run in 2016, he won an open seat for senator with 65% of the vote against another former governor. Virginia is a swing state, and the fact that he won by such a huge margin is a good sign for his future.

If he had wanted to run for president someday, he would have let Obama vet him for VP


he's got some skeletons in his closet

[Dan the Roman]

Can anyone explain to me how Romney is a flip-flopper?  From what I understand, the only issue he's changed his opinion on is abortion.  What else is there?

Don't worry, there isn't actually anything.  It's just an easy way for people to dismiss him because there isn't anything real for them to attack him for.

Yeah, because RomneyCare is a great thing to have on his resume...

Let's see... he managed to get the entire legislature to vote for it pass the funding mechanism over his veto. He got everyone insured. Leadership? Much, much better than Obama's attempts at healthcare reform.

Minor correction.

[bgwah]

I'd prefer Obama win a landslide, of course, but I must say... A competitive election between him and Huckabee would yield fascinating state, county, and precinct results...

[Lunar]

screw your demographic research man, this is people's LIVES we is talkin' 'bout

what are you going to discover, that white people in the South like folksy guitar playing pastors over Harvard-educated black men?