list all candidates who you think have a >50% chance of running for 2012 GOP nom

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, we've had similar threads before, but it's been a while.  Who do you think is >50% likely to run for the 2012 GOP nomination?  Ignoring their chances of actually *winning*, just their chances of running in the first place.

I'd go with (in descending order of likelihood):

Romney (all but certain to run)
Pawlenty (very likely to run, not quite as likely as Romney)
Huckabee (more of a tossup....but sure, I'll go with >50% chance for him)


Palin is a possibility, but my gut tells me that she's more interested in being a political celebrity than an actual politician.  Gingrich.....I think (like in 2008) he'll just pretend that he's going to run, so that he can get more media attention, but he's more likely than not to opt out in the end.  Thune is probably more likely to run than the CW holds, but still <50%.  Jindal and Crist are waiting until at least 2016.  Barbour....yes, he's visited both Iowa and New Hampshire, but my gut says <50% chance for him.  Santorum......it would be unprecedented for someone to launch a successful presidential campaign after losing their last statewide race so badly, and Santorum is smart enough to know this.  Kempthorne....made some noises about running back in January, but hasn't been heard from since.  And Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are both possibilities, but less than 50%.

That's really about it.  Obviously, we're not going to have an election with just three candidates, so a few of the people who are <50% likely to run will end up running, I just don't know which ones.  And a few people who aren't on anyone's radar screen will jump in as well.

Thoughts?  Disagreements?  Rotten vegetables to throw?

[You kip if you want to...]

Romney
Pawlenty
Huckabee
Paul
Gingrich

[YankeeFan007]

Romney
Pawlenty
Palin
Jindal

[zclark1994]

Romney
Pawlenty
Giuliani
Huckabee
Santorum

[YankeeFan007]

Giuliani?  Against that embarrasing showing in 2008?  He will never show his face again.

[MatthewZD]

Romney
Pawlenty
Huckabee
Barbour

Palin and Gingrich will play with the idea of running and keep the "will they or won't they" going until we get sick of it.  

I'm going out on a limb and say Rep. Eric Cantor of VA will launch at least a brief campaign.  How far it will go is anyone's guess (House members usually don't have much success).  If anything he'd be (a) prepping for 2016 (b) testing the waters for statewide office, either Governor in 2013 or Senate in 2014, or (c) angling for VP for whomever the nominee is.

[President Mitt]

The less cynical side of me would like to think Palin is smart enough not to run. She would not have a chance in the Republican Primaries at this point. You don't quit on your state 1/2 through your term. Big No No. I say Romney is the only one 100% sure to run at this point.

[Vepres]

Gingrich, Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee

I'll make this now for the record, so when I'm proven right, I'll have proof

If Gingrich enters the Republican primaries, he'll win and defeat Obama by a wide EC margin and a moderate PV margin.

[Alexander Hamilton]

Romney
Pawlenty
Huckabee

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Romney, Huckabee and maybe Tim Pawlenty.

[paul718]

Romney
Pawlenty
Johnson
Kempthorne

Gingrich and Huckabee are probably right at 50%.  Everyone else is well below 50%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney, TPaw, and Palin are the only three I'll say. At the very least, all three will have exploratory committees, which is good enough for me to call "running."