ABC/WP tracking polls

[Whacker77]

We've seen divergent moves in tracking polls toady.  Rasmussen went one way and Zogby went the other.  While tracking results can be affected by "noise", what does everyone expect we might see in the ABC/WP poll today?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It would be hard to imagine that poll going any more pro-Bush, so I would guess Kerry will pick up a point, probably two or three in the next couple days.

[The Vorlon]

We are dealing with a pretty small daily sample too..

Rasmussen when he was at 500 per day had a ton of blips where one candidate who magically have a "lead" of 3 or 4% for 3 days.

The ABC poll is even smaller at 400 LVs per day.

Expect a fair bit of "noise" on these tracking polls.

I imagine over time it will, on average, settle back a few points.

Zogby has at least party "de-blipped" and joined the consensus, I expect ABC will too..

[Whacker77]

Well, the new WP numbers are out and it's now 50-47 among likely voters.  Among registered voters, Kerry leads 48-46.  Monday must have been a great day for Kerry.