4-year French presidential terms

[Hash]

A random idea I had, out of curiosity and fun.

Let's say the Presidential term in France was set to 4 years in 1958 and not 7 (later 5)... like in the United States.

De Gaulle wins as in OTL in 1958 by the electoral college... the next elections are:

1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010

Who runs, who wins, what are the main points of these elections? I'll post my thoughts later... I have a surprise for y'all coming up

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's a very interesting idea, and I remember already having done this sort of list. However, to make a list, me lack a very important factor : the duration of a legislative term. This can influence the results of the Presidential elections very much. Could you inform me about it ?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

1962 elections would be held not long following Petit-Clamart and de Gaulle may be able to use this to introdude popular voting, or not? Interesting

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Charles de Gaulle (1959-1969)
Pierre Mendes-France (1969-1977)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'll guess that, in a will of stability, De Gaulle chose to set the Legislative term duration corresponding to the Presidential one. So, here's a little guess.

1962 : De Gaulle
1966 : De Gaulle
1969 : Pompidou
1973 : Giscard
1977 : Giscard
1981 : Mitterrand
1985 : Chirac
1989 : Rocard
1993 : Rocard
1997 : Rocard
2001 : Sarkozy
2005 : Sarkozy
2009 : Strauss-Khan

In 1962, De Gaulle easily wins in the First Round with Pinay finishing second, a communist third, and Mendès only fourth. His term goes as in real life, and in 1966 he faces a closer race than expected against dark horse Mitterrand, even if he wins comfortably. In 1968, he dissolves the Assembly and UNR gets a strong majority. In 1969 he resigns as in real life, and Pompidou wins the election against Poher. 1973 goes like 1974 ( Pompidou doesn't run because of his health ), even if Chaban does a bit better, and Giscard defeats Mitterrand surprisingly and in a close race. In 1977, Giscard is still quite popular, and the UDF had become a strong political force since 1976 legislatives. However, he faces his former ally Chirac, leader of a new "gaullist" formation, and a weak Rocard on the left, which he destroyed in the runoff. In 1981, he is candidate for the third time, but he surprisingly loses against a coming-back Mitterrand. Once elected, Mitterrand dissolves National Assembly and PS gets a huge majority. However, his first term goes as in real life and he gets destroyed by Chirac in 1985. However, his neoliberal policies during his term rapidly make the left gain back credibility. With Michel Rocard's leadership ( taking the presidency of the PS to Jospin in 1986, Mitterrand being politically deas ), it claims for more reasonable economic policies but refuses Chirac's radicalisms. He's also elected President in 1989, starting a long era of left domination ( even if a newly-unified right wins 1993 legislative election though failing to defeat Rocard, left comes back in 1995 after a dissolution ). In 2001, fatigue after a long Rocard presidency causes Sarkozy's election against Rocard's PM Jean-Paul Huchon. Sarkozy's elections puts an end to a period of divisions in the right, since even if UDF and RPR merged in 1992 to create the French People's Party, nobody emerged as a strong leader. However, he acts more moderately than in real life, and forms a national union cabinet ( a bit like Rocard did from 1993 to 1995 ) until the right wins back legislatves in 2003. During his second term, he is more and more criticized for his right-wing policies but remains popular. However, the 2008 economic crisis causes the return of the PS in 2009, with the economist Dominique Strauss-Khan.
Today, out of the 604 seats of the National Assembly, the PS has 278 seats, the Greens 34, the communists 11, the Radicals and various PS alliees 8, the PPF 225, his alliees 17, and the FN 31. The electoral system is proportional, similar to current Italian one. It was set by the right in 1988, to prevent right's division to cause its defeat. Rocard tried to re-establish uninominal majoritary system, but he failed due to the opposition of PS's alliees and the PPF. The FN managed to pass the 5%-threshold, but the majority prize given to the winning coalition preveted the necessity of an alliance with it. The Senate has less power than in real life due to many Rocard reforms. It has however been dominated by the right. The current Prime Minister is Pierre Moscovici.

[big bad fab]

Popular vote in 1962 and after ?

Do you need VPs ?

I'll carved out one list with your answers.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Popular vote in 1962 and after ?

Do you need VPs ?

I'll carved out one list with your answers.

It would be interesting to assume that de Gaulle created in his 1958 constitution a Vice Presidential office

[Hash]

Popular vote in 1962 and after ?

It's up to you, but probably yes.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hmm... probably not.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just for fun try to think whe could be de Gaulle running-mate and onwards

[Хahar 🤔]

Debré

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Debré

Then who'd be PM?

[big bad fab]

By referendum, in March 1962, presidential elections will be contested through universal suffrage. De Gaulle immediately resigns (his term ends in December) and an election is set for May 1962.

1962
De Gaulle 41,5% - 64,1% winner
Pinay 18,3% - 35,9%
Thorez 17,7%
Defferre 9,1%
Schumann 6,5%
Bidault 6,2%
others 0,7%

The old right, opposed to the new trends of de Gaulle's presidency, succeeds in making the retired Pinay his candidate. He advocates a more economically liberal policy, a more European stance and a less presidential regime. He is not very clear on Algeria, being able to steal many votes from the far-right.
The PCF hesitates but finally put forward his leader, Thorez, whose personal manners and illness are exposed in a way that results in a bad national result for the PCF.
Mollet is forced to agree on the name of the young Defferre, who is unknown but is able to reach beyond SFIO's old and corrupt image.
Maurice Schumann is reluctantly candidate for the centre, but his old-style manner isn't very efficient.
Bidault is the "Algérie française" candidate, but his extremist speeches frighten many French people.

In the run-off, many Pinay voters, having understood that he can't win, prefer to vote for de Gaulle... But, furthermore, the PCF and even many other leftist voters are forced to abstain. Schumann isn't very clear and, contrary to the centrist party, doesn't appeal to vote for Pinay.

1966
De Gaulle 37,9% - 62,7% winner
Mitterrand 17,4% - 37,3%
Rochet 16,0%
Lecanuet 13,1%
Depreux 7,2%
Tixier Vignancour 5,8%
others 2,6%

Mitterrand isn't able to gather all the left behind him. Depreux, who makes a good score for the PSU, and another ailing PCF candidate aren't able, though, to prevent him from being in the 2nd round. Lecanuet, young and media favorite, is very competitive.
In the run-off, without any momentum on the left, Mitterrand is trounced.

1970
Pompidou 42,2% - 52,9% winner
Servan-Schreiber 22,8% - 47,1%
Duclos 20,0%
Savary 7,1%
Rocard 6,7%
others 1,2%

After the death of De Gaulle, an election is organized in December.
In the first round, a legitimacy effect plays well for Pompidou, but he has no reserve of votes.
Servan-Schreiber is able to grasp many centre-right and centre-left voters and a large chunk of the socialists who don't believe the new convert Alain Savary can be trusted. Savary is almost beaten by Rocard, his old pal in the PSA-PSU.
In the run-off, Pompidou does surprisingly well, dut to a momentum towards JJSS. But the communists fail to turn to vote for the latter en masse.

1974
Giscard d'Estaing 33,6% - 71,3% winner
Marchais 18,5% - 28,7%
Chaban-Delmas 17,3%
Mitterrand 11,4%
Servan-Schreiber 11,2%
Edgar Faure 6,5%
others 1,5%

Pompidou's death sets election in May again...
JJSS is unable to repeat his 1970 success, having been unable to organize a solid party. Besides, Edgar Faure acts as a Giscard proxy and steals many votes from JJSS. Mitterrand proposes many hard left proposals and loses votes to Servan-Schreiber and to Marchais, who is more moderate (for a communist) during his "eurocommunist" trend.
Chaban-Delams is betrayed by Chirac, Pasqua and even Guichard and fails to make it to the run-off.
Due to feras of communism and appeals from all the big candidates, except Mitterrand, to vote for him, Giscard is triumphantly elected.

1978
Rocard 29,4% - 53,7% winner
Giscard 26,1% - 46,3%
Peyrefitte 21,2%
Roland Leroy 13,8%
Dumont 5,5%
others 4,0%

Due to his aristocratic presidency and the Crisis, Giscard is weakened by a mediatic campaign from Peyrefitte (whom Chirac has pushed on the forefront), by a strong Michel Jobert candidacy (3,5%) and by the new moderateness of Rocard, which contrats well with the 1974 Mitterrand.
The bad result of the orthodox Roland Leroy precludes the PCF from being too noisy about Rocard's moderateness.
So, in the run-off, Rocard wins convincingly.

1982
Chirac 24,7% - 51,4% winner
Rocard 26,0% - 48,6%
Giscard d'Estaing 19,1%
Marchais 15,6%
Tazieff 6,1%
Le Pen 5,3%
others 3,2%

After an unsuccessful term and many attacks from the inside of his party, Rocard is just able to finish ahead of Chirac in the first round. The Green candidate, Haroun Tazieff, scores well and Le Pen too.
Giscard, outraged of having been ousted so easily in 1978, is again candidate but loses quite clearly.
In the run-off, Chirac's victory is difficult, but divisions on the left are a bit more harmful than those on the right.

[big bad fab]

1986
Rocard 28,8% - 52,0%
Chirac 23,9% - 48,0%
Fiterman 14,7%
Barrot 10,9%
Le Pen 9,8%
Noir 7,5%
others 4,4%

After a difficult term, during which his personal behaviour has been criticized and France has been unable to recover fully from the crisis, Chirac's result is bad in the first round.
Feeling the rise of Le Pen, he has to strenghten all his positions, resulting in the candidacy of Michel Noir, who is more moderate and is young and mild-mannered.
Fortunately for Chirac, the UDF candidate isn't an arch-enemy and Barrot isn't very strong in the medias.
In the run-off, despite unity on the right, Rocard comes back.

1990
Rocard 38,5% - 55,4%
Léotard 18,2% - 44,6%
Le Pen 13,6%
Chirac 9,4%
Séguin 8,8%
Ralite 8,1%
others 3,4%

With the economy buoying, Rocard sails to victory, against a divided right, Chirac trying again to be president and being humiliated by Le Pen. Séguin, as the social and nationalist gaullist, only manages to divide the right and even seems to support Rocard in the 2nd round by deriding personal abilities of Léotard.
The moderate line of the PCF since 1983 plays well for Riocard in the second round. He wins with a double-digit margin.

1994
Chirac 16,7% - 52,6%
Rocard 25,3% - 47,4%
Le Pen 16,0%
Balladur 14,4%
Chevènement 9,0%
Bosson 8,7%
Deniau 7,6%
others 2,3%

Among a divided right and centre-right, Chirac is able to beat Le Pen by a very small margin. Fortunately for him, Deniau, Bosson and Balladur gather around him and show a big united image.
Because of scandals inside the PS, of a big score from a reluctant Chevènement and of returning crisis, Rocard is eventually beaten by his old enemy.
It's more a defeat for the left than a big win for the right.

1998
Fabius 27,6% - 76,7%
Le Pen 16,9% - 23,3%
Chirac 15,8%
Bayrou 13,1%
Pasqua 9,3%
Voynet 6,4%
Laguiller 5,2%
others 5,7%

After a catastrophic term, Chirac is beaten by Le Pen and by divisions inside the right.
Bayrou, so sure to be in the second round, resigns from any political position.
In the run-off, there is no real contest and Fabius becomes the great saviour, even if Le Pen makes some progress, due to Pasqua' sympathy towards him.

2002
Juppé 24,3% - 53,2%
Fabius 24,3% - 46,8%
Le Pen 13,0%
Madelin 7,2%
Villiers 6,1%
Dutreil 6,1%
Lipietz 5,5%
Emmanuelli 5,4%
Laguiller 5,0%
others 3,1%

Even if the left and the right are divided, Juppé has the momentum: he is surprisingly high, Le Pen is down and the rest of the right is too divided to be harmful.
On the left, Lipietz is very reluctant to support Fabius and Emmanuelli attacks him even more than he fights against Juppé.
In the run-off, Juppé's very efficient campaign leads him to a convincing victory.

2006
Strauss-Kahn 27,7% - 50,2%
Juppé 26,1% - 49,8%
Le Pen 13,2%
Raffarin 12,4%
Mélenchon 10,0%
Cohn-Bendit 7,3%
others 3,3%

Juppé hasn't made a bad term, but the mood is against him. Le Pen is still high. Cohn-Bendit steals some far-left voters and makes them available for Strauss-Kahn. Mélenchon divisive candidacy isn't so bad as it makes Besancenot eat the dust.
Juppé is narrowly beaten, in the closest election of the 5th Republic.

2010
Sarkozy 33,0% - 56,8%
Strauss-Kahn 23,9% - 43,2%
Baroin 11,1%
Borloo 9,1%
Le Pen 7,3%
Mélenchon 7,2%
Cochet 5,8%
others 2,6%

After the crisis, the left is in bad shape. Sarkozy manages to push Borloo in order to divide the natural electorate of Baroin. He makes a big result in the first round and gets the momentum. Mélenchon doesn't support Strauss-Kahn and gives no electoral instruction in the second round.
In the run-off, without any motivation, Strauss-Kahn almost drops and lets Sarkozy win with a big margin.

[Hash]

Great job!

[Хahar 🤔]

Lot of right-wingers there...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Rocard back, this was beautiful

[big bad fab]

Lot of right-wingers there...

Well, less than in real life !
In my series, you've got 20 years of socialist presidents: 14 years in RL and 15 years of prime ministership...

But if you were talking about the number of candidates on the right, well, yes, a bit more than in RL

[big bad fab]

Great job!

I haven't made it on purpose, but I knew a Marchais in the run-off would please you

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Socialist-friendly hack list


Charles de Gaulle (1959-1969)

Elected in 1958, reelected in 1962 and 1966, resigned in 1968. Things are going more difficult for Gaullists

Alain Poher (1968-1972)

First Interim President, suprisingly elected, defeated in 1972 for reelection

Jacques Chaban-Delmas (1972-1976)

Defeated for reelection

Michel Rocard (1976-1984)

After defeating Mitterrand (by the fluke of te Gods) for Socialist leadeship, Rocard went to win two terms in Elysee

Jacques Chirac (1984-1988)

Defeated for reelection

Valery Giscard d'Estaing (1988-1992)

After narrowly edgeing incumbent Chirac in runoff, he defeated socialist opponent

Jacques Chirac (1992-1996)

Lol, he managed to back

Lionel Jospin (1996-2004)

Two termer

Dominique de Villepin (2004-present)