SC-PPP Gubernatorial - July 2008

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

(link)

Yes I know it's 13 months old but as far as I know there isn't a more recent poll.

542 Likely Voters
±4.2% Margin of Error
Conducted July 9-11, 2008

Barrett (R) 31%
Rex (D) 36%

McMaster (R) 36%
Rex (D) 36%

Tanenbaum has since this poll was taken indicated that she will not be running, but I include the numbers below anyway, since they suggest that Barrett wasn't lagging as far behind McMaster as the Rex numbers alone indicate.

Barrett (R) 40%
Tanenbaum (D) 39%

McMaster (R) 39%
Tanenbaum (D) 39%

Breakdowns by gender, party, race, and age available at the link.

[SamInTheSouth]

(link)

Yes I know it's 13 months old but as far as I know there isn't a more recent poll.

542 Likely Voters
±4.2% Margin of Error
Conducted July 9-11, 2008

Barrett (R) 31%
Rex (D) 36%

McMaster (R) 36%
Rex (D) 36%

Do you think the Wall Street bail out vote is hurting Barrett?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Depends entirely on whether the bailout is still a significant issue come next June.  Unless something spectacular goes wrong with the banks and/or the economy beyond the current forecasts, I don't expect it to be an issue on its own.  Haley might have tried making it an issue, but with Sanford toast, so is Haley and any impact she might have on the race.  That's small comfort, as given how dysfunctional Sanford has been as governor, I think the chance another maverick Congressman will become Governor in 2010 is slim, though at least unlike Sanford, Barrett has served in the General Assembly.

The race is really too fluid to tell.  Any of Barrett, Bauer, or McMaster could get it.  As long as Bauer doesn't get it, I'll be content.  If Bauer does run I'll be voting in the Republican primary yet again so as to vote against him.

[SamInTheSouth]

I just realized that poll is from a year ago.  It's not really significant at this point.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am almost certain Bauer will run. He told some local TV show over the summer during the Sanford fiasco that he felt he was ready to become governor if Sanford stepped down.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

He keeps saying he won't run if Sanford resigns. Does the same apply if he is impeached and removed from office?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I have no idea. Sanford probably will not resign, rather he'll finish his term out under the radar. Bauer, if he were to run, would have a hard time winning a primary because a lot of the locals I talk to would never support him. His support may be so low that he just will stay out of the race.