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Author Topic: Targeted Democratic seats  (Read 2891 times)
biggzcorey
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« on: August 26, 2009, 04:58:25 am »
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Below is a list of Democratic congressmen that will be targeted by the NRCC






VA-05  Tom Perriello (D)  R+5  <1% 
ID-01  Walt Minnick (D)  R+18  1% 
MD-01  Frank Kratovil (D)  R+13  1% 
OH-15  Mary-Jo Kilroy (D)  D+1  1% 
PA-03  Kathleen Dahlkemper (D)  R+3  2% 
MI-07  Mark Schauer (D)  R+2  2% 
NY-29  Eric Massa (D)  R+5  2% 
PA-11  Paul Kanjorski (D)  D+4  3% 
CT-04  Jim Himes (D)  D+5  4% 
FL-08  Alan Grayson (D)  R+2  4% 
NJ-03  John Adler (D)  R+1  4% 
NY-24  Mike Arcuri (D)  R+2  4% 
AL-05  Parker Griffith (D)  R+12  4% 
NV-03  Dina Titus (D)  D+2  5% 
VA-02  Glenn Nye (D)  R+5  5% 
OH-01  Steve Driehaus (D)  D+1  5% 
NH-01  Carol Shea-Porter (D)  R+0  6% 
TX-17  Chet Edwards (D)  R+20  7% 
WI-08  Steve Kagen (D)  R+2  8% 
AZ-05  Harry Mitchell (D)  R+5  9% 
MI-09  Gary Peters (D)  D+2  9% 
NC-08  Larry Kissell (D)  R+2  10% 
OH-16  John Boccieri (D)  R+4  10% 
CA-11  Jerry McNerney (D)  R+1  10% 
FL-22  Ron Klein (D)  D+1  10% 
MS-01  Travis Childers (D)  R+14  10% 
PA-04  Jason Altmire (D)  R+6  12% 
PA-10  Chris Carney (D)  R+8  12% 
CO-04  Betsy Markey (D)  R+6  12% 
NM-01  Martin Heinrich (D)  D+5  12% 
NM-02  Harry Teague (D)  R+6  12% 
VA-11  Gerald Connolly (D)  D+2  12% 
NY-25  Dan Maffei (D)  D+3  13% 
IA-03  Leonard Boswell (D)  D+1  14% 
NH-02  (Open) (D)  D+3  15% 
IL-14  Bill Foster (D)  R+1  15% 
KS-03  Dennis Moore (D)  R+3  16% 
NY-01  Tim Bishop (D)  R+0  16% 
OR-05  Kurt Schrader (D)  D+1  16% 
PA-12  John Murtha (D)  R+1  16% 
FL-24  Suzanne Kosmas (D)  R+4  16% 
AZ-01  Ann Kirkpatrick (D)  R+6  17% 
NY-19  John Hall (D)  R+3  18% 
IN-09  Baron Hill (D)  R+6  20% 
OH-18  Zack Space (D)  R+7  20% 
PA-07  (Open) (D)  D+3  20% 
WI-07  Dave Obey (D)  D+3  22% 
ND-AL  Earl Pomeroy (D)  R+10  24% 
NY-20  Scott Murphy (D)  R+2  24% 
IL-11  Debbie Halvorson (D)  R+1  24% 
NY-13  Mike McMahon (D)  R+4  28% 
UT-02  Jim Matheson (D)  R+15  28% 
WI-03  Ron Kind (D)  D+4  29% 
IN-08  Brad Ellsworth (D)  R+8  30% 
KY-06  Ben Chandler (D)  R+9  30% 
MO-04  Ike Skelton (D)  R+14  32% 
GA-12  John Barrow (D)  D+1  32% 
SD-AL  Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D)  R+9  35% 
OK-02  Dan Boren (D)  R+14  41% 
CA-47  Loretta Sanchez (D)  D+4  44% 
AR-02  Vic Snyder (D)  R+5  53% 
OR-01  David Wu (D)  D+8  54% 
HI-01  (Open) (D)  D+11  58% 
OR-04  Peter DeFazio (D)  D+2  69% 
AR-04  Mike Ross (D)  R+7  72% 
AR-01  Marion Berry (D)  R+8  100% 
VA-09  Rick Boucher (D)  R+11  100% 
WV-01  Alan Mollohan (D)  R+9  100% 
LA-03  Charlie Melancon (D)  R+12  100%

Many democrats do have to worry about being re-elected (Minnick, Bright, Katovil), but some of these are just not going to happen (HI-01,OR-01,WI-07)
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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2009, 11:20:21 am »
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They will not have enough money to "target" that many seats effectively.
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2009, 11:30:43 am »
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This is the AP list, right? There's a thread on it elsewhere. Suffice to say, either the AP or the NRCC is completely bullsh**tting. David Wu? Ron Kind? Loretta Sanchez? David Obey? LOL.
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2009, 11:34:22 am »
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There's one glaring omission to that list and thats Gabi "Pelosi's Lapdog" Giffords.
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2009, 05:15:55 pm »
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There's one glaring omission to that list and thats Gabi "Pelosi's Lapdog" Giffords.
Yes, after all this was such a narrowly drawn list. I'm sure Giffords' omission from a list that includes such prime targets as HI-1, CA-47, GA-12 and OR-1 was a simple oversight. The NCCC is surely licking their chops at the the prospect of Giffords going down.
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2009, 05:41:09 pm »
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There's one glaring omission to that list and thats Gabi "Pelosi's Lapdog" Giffords.

Keep the dream alive!
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ajc0918
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2009, 05:49:01 pm »
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This is the AP list, right? There's a thread on it elsewhere. Suffice to say, either the AP or the NRCC is completely bullsh**tting. David Wu? Ron Kind? Loretta Sanchez? David Obey? LOL.

Loretta Sanchez has a formidable opponent. He outraised her by 3k, she definitely isn't safe.
But it is lean democrat.

Here's the opponent. www.joinvantran.com
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brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2009, 05:55:02 pm »
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Jim McDermott, Frank Pallone, Gerry Connolly
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2009, 06:00:38 pm »
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Wow, that's a lot of people. I wish they focused on less seats, so they could spend more there.
I'm suprised they are targetting Brad Ellsworth. His only opponent thus far is a no name candidate. Possibly Bob Heaton could make the rate interesting, but even then, I'm suprised it would make the list.
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biggzcorey
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2009, 06:31:39 pm »
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This is the AP list, right? There's a thread on it elsewhere. Suffice to say, either the AP or the NRCC is completely bullsh**tting. David Wu? Ron Kind? Loretta Sanchez? David Obey? LOL.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Aug05-s.html

this is an interesting article on it
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2009, 06:42:27 pm »
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The Republicans should probably put all their chips on targeting every Southern Democrat not in a majority-minority district. The South seems to be the most fertile ground for making gains in the House, seeing as how it's the epicenter of the tea parties and birthers.
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brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2009, 08:44:50 am »
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This is the AP list, right? There's a thread on it elsewhere. Suffice to say, either the AP or the NRCC is completely bullsh**tting. David Wu? Ron Kind? Loretta Sanchez? David Obey? LOL.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2009/Senate/Maps/Aug05-s.html

this is an interesting article on it

Murkowski and Thune are "barely GOP" while Dodd is safe... no thanks.
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« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2009, 08:51:21 am »
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Murkowski and Thune are "barely GOP" while Dodd is safe... no thanks.

Lawl. Why even have that map if you're just going to show 2004 election results with it?
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brittain33
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« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2009, 10:23:37 am »
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Murkowski and Thune are "barely GOP" while Dodd is safe... no thanks.

Lawl. Why even have that map if you're just going to show 2004 election results with it?

Thanks for explaining their methodology. This looked full-on Dick Morris-type crazy without that.
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« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2009, 10:47:20 am »
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Murkowski and Thune are "barely GOP" while Dodd is safe... no thanks.

Lawl. Why even have that map if you're just going to show 2004 election results with it?

Thanks for explaining their methodology. This looked full-on Dick Morris-type crazy without that.
   "1.   The most recent poll in every state is always used.
   2. If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
   3. If one or more polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally."

I suppose most races haven't been polled yet so (just as on this site's poll aggregator, btw) the previous result is used as the base.
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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2009, 10:56:37 am »
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Murkowski and Thune are "barely GOP" while Dodd is safe... no thanks.

Lawl. Why even have that map if you're just going to show 2004 election results with it?

Thanks for explaining their methodology. This looked full-on Dick Morris-type crazy without that.
   "1.   The most recent poll in every state is always used.
   2. If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.
   3. If one or more polls were taken within a week of the most recent, all of them are averaged, weighted equally."

I suppose most races haven't been polled yet so (just as on this site's poll aggregator, btw) the previous result is used as the base.

Polls HAVE been taken on races in Connecticut and New Hampshire, for instance, two states incorrectly showing huge leads for the incumbent parties based on '04 results. I just think it's a problem with them not focusing enough on those races or that site enough to put them in. August 2009 is a long way off from November 2010ómost people haven't seriously put much thought into these races.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2009, 11:01:03 am »
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That brings me to the other option... they're posting articles but haven't started updating the map yet.

In which case the question, "why post the map at all?", is of course a pertinent one. Smiley
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biggzcorey
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2009, 08:36:52 pm »
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They haven't updated the map yet, probably because it's too early to really tell. Showing the 2004 results is just a base.
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« Reply #18 on: August 27, 2009, 09:17:02 pm »
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They haven't updated the map yet, probably because it's too early to really tell. Showing the 2004 results is just a base.

They normally update it when it gets to the point when there's almost daily polls for the battlegrounds.
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2009, 01:00:37 pm »
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This is the AP list, right? There's a thread on it elsewhere. Suffice to say, either the AP or the NRCC is completely bullsh**tting. David Wu? Ron Kind? Loretta Sanchez? David Obey? LOL.

Loretta Sanchez has a formidable opponent. He outraised her by 3k, she definitely isn't safe.
But it is lean democrat.

Here's the opponent. www.joinvantran.com

I will admit that Tran will do well in Garden Grove. But he is going to be absolutely destroyed everywhere else.
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