Melancon will run against Vitter

[biggzcorey]

Charlie Melancon, Louisiana's only democratic congressman, will run against David Vitter. Polls show him trailing, but since he is pro-life and pro-gun he might have a chance.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0809/Melancon_running_against_Vitter.html

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats have an excellent recruitment in 2010 than Republicans.

OPEN GOP seats.
FL- The Republicans are going to nominate Governor Charlie Crist. Whoever the Democrats nominate will be an underdog against Crist.

KS- Red State to elect a Democrat. even Kathleen Sebelius will be a slight underdog.

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

MO- Democrats have Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Republicans have Roy Blunt. Democratic Pickup.

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

OH- Democrats have Lt Governor Lee Fisher/Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Republicans have Robert Portman.  Democratic Pickup.

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

IL- Democrats have Alexi Giannoulias. Republicans have Mark Kirk.- Democratic Retention.

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.

CA- Boxer- Boxer is to CA what Cornyn is to TX. too much of an ideologue but gets re-elected due to the partisan demographics of their state.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

ND- Dorgan-another Red State Democratic Senator up for re-election but Dorgan popularity is greater than the hatred of Obama.

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

WA- Murray is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected.   GOP base is weak.

WI- Feingold is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected. GOP bench is weak.

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

If Democrats were to lose any seat in 2010.
It will be in
AR- Anti Obama State. Lincoln have mediocre popularity.
CO- Swing State- Bennett is appointed with little elected experience.
and maybe PA- depending on how the Democratic primary turns out.
Dodd-CT and Reid-NV will survive because of their Leadership Roles.
VP Biden will do everything to make sure his son wins his old US Senate Seat(DE) and President Obama will do everything to make sure his friend Alexi Giannoulias wins his old US Senate Seat (IL).

Vulnerable Republican Incumbents.
First Term US Senators elected because of Bush 2004 coattails.
AK- Murkowski- narrowly defeated a former two term Governor. Dem bench is weak. Safe GOP.
GA- Isakson- elected by a landslide margin. Democratic bench is weak. Safe GOP.
LA- Vitter- elected with 51% of the popular vote with a Divided Democratic Field. Democrats have a top tier challenger Charlie Melancon. LA will be competitive- Vitter will win in the end.
NC- Burr elected by narrow margin. Burr seat is a curse seat. A possible upset is likely to occur.
OK- Coburn- Dem bench is weak.
SC- DeMint- Dem bench is weak.
SD- Thune- Dem bench is weak.

Rest of the Republican seat are safe.
AL- Shelby
AZ- McCain
ID- Crapo
IA- Grassley
UT- Bennett.

[ajc0918]

Democrats have an excellent recruitment in 2010 than Republicans.

OPEN GOP seats.
FL- The Republicans are going to nominate Governor Charlie Crist. Whoever the Democrats nominate will be an underdog against Crist.

KS- Red State to elect a Democrat. even Kathleen Sebelius will be a slight underdog.

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

MO- Democrats have Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. Republicans have Roy Blunt. Democratic Pickup.

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

OH- Democrats have Lt Governor Lee Fisher/Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Republicans have Robert Portman.  Democratic Pickup.

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

IL- Democrats have Alexi Giannoulias. Republicans have Mark Kirk.- Democratic Retention.

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.

CA- Boxer- Boxer is to CA what Cornyn is to TX. too much of an ideologue but gets re-elected due to the partisan demographics of their state.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

ND- Dorgan-another Red State Democratic Senator up for re-election but Dorgan popularity is greater than the hatred of Obama.

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

WA- Murray is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected.   GOP base is weak.

WI- Feingold is vulnerable because of Liberal ideology but keeps on getting re-elected. GOP bench is weak.

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

If Democrats were to lose any seat in 2010.
It will be in
AR- Anti Obama State. Lincoln have mediocre popularity.
CO- Swing State- Bennett is appointed with little elected experience.
and maybe PA- depending on how the Democratic primary turns out.
Dodd-CT and Reid-NV will survive because of their Leadership Roles.
VP Biden will do everything to make sure his son wins his old US Senate Seat(DE) and President Obama will do everything to make sure his friend Alexi Giannoulias wins his old US Senate Seat (IL).

Vulnerable Republican Incumbents.
First Term US Senators elected because of Bush 2004 coattails.
AK- Murkowski- narrowly defeated a former two term Governor. Dem bench is weak. Safe GOP.
GA- Isakson- elected by a landslide margin. Democratic bench is weak. Safe GOP.
LA- Vitter- elected with 51% of the popular vote with a Divided Democratic Field. Democrats have a top tier challenger Charlie Melancon. LA will be competitive- Vitter will win in the end.
NC- Burr elected by narrow margin. Burr seat is a curse seat. A possible upset is likely to occur.
OK- Coburn- Dem bench is weak.
SC- DeMint- Dem bench is weak.
SD- Thune- Dem bench is weak.

Rest of the Republican seat are safe.
AL- Shelby
AZ- McCain
ID- Crapo
IA- Grassley
UT- Bennett.

Obviously your predictions are not based on poll numbers whatsoever. Which makes this look like crap. 

[Sensei]

Are poll numbers at all valuable at this point? (No, but thanks for your participation, you get a copy of the home edition)

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

Even without Bunnings dems have a shot, but slingty R favored

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

Ayotte is easy to beat with painting her as a right-wing nutjob. Dems only need to move on

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

Yup, without Mike Biden ladsdlide. But with, thanks to Joe influence and Democratic state politics, he'd win anyway

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.
[/qoute]

I can't see a formidable GOP candidate. Lincoln win by deflaut.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

Bennett have a great fundraising ability and if 2010 is not a fatal year for Dems, he'd win

Dodd may win narrowly due to partisian demograhic

And I don't think either Reid would be unseated

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

I'd love to see her topled in primary

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

Toomey have no chance against either Specter of Sestak

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

Yes!

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

Even without Bunnings dems have a shot, but slingty R favored

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

Ayotte is easy to beat with painting her as a right-wing nutjob. Dems only need to move on

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

Yup, without Mike Biden ladsdlide. But with, thanks to Joe influence and Democratic state politics, he'd win anyway

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.
[/qoute]

I can't see a formidable GOP candidate. Lincoln win by deflaut.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

Bennett have a great fundraising ability and if 2010 is not a fatal year for Dems, he'd win

Dodd may win narrowly due to partisian demograhic

And I don't think either Reid would be unseated

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

I'd love to see her topled in primary

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

Toomey have no chance against either Specter of Sestak

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

Yes!

How is Ayotte a right wing nutjob, she is for Gay Marriage.

Republicans will have Norton in Colorado and Sue Lowden in Nevada, not top tier sure but not third tier either.

Toomey has a chance against Specter but not against Sestak. I think Flyer's is right that Sestak will not only bring home the liberals but also his military background will bring home some of the voters out west. Specter though will underperform almost any Democrat outside of the SE because Westerners of both parties hate him and his dithering on policies will ensure that liberals are not as hard core supporting as they would be for Sestak. Its thin but its enough to give Toomey a Santorum 94 style win.

OH is a toss-up. People will not care as much about Bush in 2010 and he only was OMB for a few months and combined with his time as Trade Rep its a little less then 2 years as a Bush appointee, during which no major policy decisions or changes were made that weren't already in place.

Edit: By the way, one of you guys screwed up the quoting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

Even without Bunnings dems have a shot, but slingty R favored

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

Ayotte is easy to beat with painting her as a right-wing nutjob. Dems only need to move on

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

Yup, without Mike Biden ladsdlide. But with, thanks to Joe influence and Democratic state politics, he'd win anyway

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.
[/qoute]

I can't see a formidable GOP candidate. Lincoln win by deflaut.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

Bennett have a great fundraising ability and if 2010 is not a fatal year for Dems, he'd win

Dodd may win narrowly due to partisian demograhic

And I don't think either Reid would be unseated

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

I'd love to see her topled in primary

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

Toomey have no chance against either Specter of Sestak

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

Yes!

How is Ayotte a right wing nutjob, she is for Gay Marriage.

Republicans will have Norton in Colorado and Sue Lowden in Nevada, not top tier sure but not third tier either.

Toomey has a chance against Specter but not against Sestak. I think Flyer's is right that Sestak will not only bring home the liberals but also his military background will bring home some of the voters out west. Specter though will underperform almost any Democrat outside of the SE because Westerners of both parties hate him and his dithering on policies will ensure that liberals are not as hard core supporting as they would be for Sestak. Its thin but its enough to give Toomey a Santorum 94 style win.

OH is a toss-up. People will not care as much about Bush in 2010 and he only was OMB for a few months and combined with his time as Trade Rep its a little less then 2 years as a Bush appointee, during which no major policy decisions or changes were made that weren't already in place.

Edit: By the way, one of you guys screwed up the quoting.

Ayotte is anti-gay marriage:

http://www.nhpr.org/node/26450

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

KY- Democrats have Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo/AG Jack Conway. Republicans have Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Tossup.

Even without Bunnings dems have a shot, but slingty R favored

NH- Democrats have US Rep Paul Hodes. Republicans have Kathy Ayotte. Democratic Pickup.

Ayotte is easy to beat with painting her as a right-wing nutjob. Dems only need to move on

OPEN Democrats.
DE- Democrats have Beau Biden. - If Republicans get Mike Castle- It will be a tossup but in the end Biden will win.

Yup, without Mike Biden ladsdlide. But with, thanks to Joe influence and Democratic state politics, he'd win anyway

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents.
AR- Lincoln- The Only Democratic Senator up for re-election from an anti Obama- State. Republican bench is weak.
[/qoute]

I can't see a formidable GOP candidate. Lincoln win by deflaut.

CO- Bennett- appointed Democrat from swing state- no elected experience. Republicans are not fielding any top tier candidates to challenge Bennett.

CT- Dodd- Usually Safe but First Time Vulnerable because of Bad Publicity. Republican have top tier challenger- ex US Rep Bob Simmons. Tossup but Dodd will end up winning in the end.

NV- Reid- vulnerable being Senate Majority Leader. always faced tough race except in 2004. Republican bench is weak.

Bennett have a great fundraising ability and if 2010 is not a fatal year for Dems, he'd win

Dodd may win narrowly due to partisian demograhic

And I don't think either Reid would be unseated

NY- Gillibrand- appointed but GOP bench is weak. Pataki,Guiliani,and King will be underdogs.

I'd love to see her topled in primary

PA- Specter is faceing a tough primary challenge from Joe Sestak. Republicans have Pat Toomey who may be too conservative for the state. It all depends on how the primary turns out.

Toomey have no chance against either Specter of Sestak

Other Democratic US Senators up for re-election.
HI- Inouye is an elder statesman- He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
IN- Bayh is very popular in IN. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
MD- Mikulski is very popular in MD. She will get re-elected by a landslide.
NY- Schumer is very popular in NY. He will get re-elected by a landslide.
OR- Wyden is very popular in OR. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.
VT- Leahy is an elder statesman. He will get re-elected by a landslide margin.

Yes!

How is Ayotte a right wing nutjob, she is for Gay Marriage.

Republicans will have Norton in Colorado and Sue Lowden in Nevada, not top tier sure but not third tier either.

Toomey has a chance against Specter but not against Sestak. I think Flyer's is right that Sestak will not only bring home the liberals but also his military background will bring home some of the voters out west. Specter though will underperform almost any Democrat outside of the SE because Westerners of both parties hate him and his dithering on policies will ensure that liberals are not as hard core supporting as they would be for Sestak. Its thin but its enough to give Toomey a Santorum 94 style win.

OH is a toss-up. People will not care as much about Bush in 2010 and he only was OMB for a few months and combined with his time as Trade Rep its a little less then 2 years as a Bush appointee, during which no major policy decisions or changes were made that weren't already in place.

Edit: By the way, one of you guys screwed up the quoting.

Ayotte is anti-gay marriage:

http://www.nhpr.org/node/26450

Even so she must not be too Far right otherwise, Lynch never would have kept her on the job.