UPDATED - Chicago Tribune Polls of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesoat

[The Vorlon]

All of these at 500 LVs => +/- 4.4% 19/20

I do not have any additional details at this time

Alan Keyes says this poll is rigged however


Poll shows Kerry gaining ground in key Midwestern states

By Jeff Zeleny and John McCormick
Tribune staff reporters
Published October 12, 2004, 7:36 PM CDT

CHICAGO -- Sen. John Kerry has improved his standing over President Bush in four Midwestern battleground states where domestic concerns of health care and the economy have overtaken the issues of terrorism and Iraq with three weeks remaining in the presidential campaign, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows.

In Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin - states that are among the most contested in the nation - the president's approval rating is below 50 percent, historically a warning sign for an incumbent. While a narrow majority of likely voters in each of those four states say they are dissatisfied with Bush's handling of Iraq and the economy, they still find him to be a strong leader in the war on terror.

As the candidates prepare for their final face-to-face encounter in a debate Wednesday night in Tempe, Ariz., a forum devoted to domestic issues, voters say Kerry would be more likely than Bush to restore jobs and grow the economy. While the war in Iraq has dominated the campaign for months, the poll underscores the importance of pocketbook issues.

The impressions from the likely voters, who were surveyed by telephone Friday evening through Monday evening, offer a glimpse into the uncertainty of the race. More than any other single geographic region, Bush and Kerry have aggressively targeted those Midwestern states by spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising and have repeatedly visited the states.

The separate, state-by-state polls found Kerry to hold slim leads over Bush in Ohio, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while Bush maintained a narrow advantage in Iowa. But the findings of the surveys, which questioned 500 likely voters in each state, fall within a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The poll found that likely voters in the four states place a greater importance on health care and jobs than they do on terrorism, moral issues or taxes. When asked to name their top concern, voters in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin listed health care most commonly, while those in Ohio said the loss of jobs.

In recent weeks, some of the nation's most respected polls have delivered wildly varying assessments of the race, even as both sides have promoted surveys that show their efforts in the best light while rebutting those that don't.

Much discussion has been made of trying to get an accurate snapshot of public opinion through telephone polling in a society that relies heavily on cellular phones. But pollsters say research shows that no more than 3 percent of the electorate has been removed from the polling universe because of people who use cell phones as their sole line.

Since the first presidential debate two weeks ago in Florida, Kerry has gained ground in most national polls and surveys in targeted states. The Tribune poll was taken primarily after the second presidential debate late last week, although about a fifth of the interviews were conducted before the town hall forum in St. Louis.

In each of the four states, Kerry receives the stronger support among those 65 and older. His advantage among seniors was greatest in Wisconsin, where Kerry is attracting support from 53 percent in that age group, compared to 39 percent for Bush.

The poll found that Kerry has closed a perceived gap in likability and has improved his standing among women, a move that is essential to any chances of success for him. In the weeks after the Republican convention, when Bush and an army of surrogates campaigned on a strong theme of national security, many women voters had started gravitating toward Bush. Since then, Democrats charged their rivals with campaigning on a message of fear, and mounted an effort to win women back to the ticket.

In each of the four states, the electorate is nearly evenly divided when likely voters were asked if America is winning the war in Iraq, losing the war or if it is too soon to make a determination. Though Bush has built his re-election around fighting terrorism, only a slim majority of voters in each of the four states believe military action in Iraq is part of the broader war on terror.

Iowans are slightly more optimistic than voters in other states, with 33 percent saying they believe America is winning, compared to 27 percent in Ohio and Wisconsin, and 28 percent in Minnesota.

While both sides have their core group of supporters firmly in their grasp, Kerry has closed a perceived gap in likability, which strategists believe is an important hurdle to cross when trying to unseat a sitting president.

Still, when asked which candidate is more personable or likable, Bush clings to a narrow lead that falls within the margin of error. But Bush remains the clear favorite among men for personality and Kerry is a narrow favorite in this area among women.

In each of the four Midwest battleground states, Kerry maintains a narrow advantage among women. Bush, meanwhile, does better among men in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while Kerry is doing better among men in Ohio, a state with a high proportion of union households.

The gender gap is strongest in Minnesota and Wisconsin, where Kerry has the backing of more than half of likely women voters. In Minnesota, 51 percent of women say they plan to vote for Kerry, while 38 percent pick Bush. In Wisconsin, 55 percent of women are planning to back Kerry and 36 percent say Bush.

Of the four states, Bush's approval rating is lowest in Ohio, where factory closings and unemployment hang like a cloud over the president's re-election hopes. As Bush's campaign is well aware, no Republican has made it to the White House without winning Ohio, and just two presidential candidates since 1892 have won without the state.

Just 43 percent of likely voters in the Buckeye State say they approve of the job Bush is doing, while 50 percent disapprove. Seven percent say they have no opinion.

Bush's approval rating is a few points higher in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin, but remains below 50 percent in all three states, a worrisome sign for an incumbent president.

Here, too, women are more disapproving of the president. While 50 percent of men in the four states say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, just 41 percent of women agree.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader, who remains a wild card in the race, is on the ballot in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and 33 other states.

He did not receive a position on the Ohio ballot, but has challenged that decision in court.

In Iowa, Bush has support from 47 percent of likely voters, compared to 45 percent for Kerry. Nader attracts the backing of 1 percent. Seven percent remain undecided.

To the north in Minnesota, Kerry leads 45 percent to 43 percent, with Nader attracting support from 2 percent. The remaining 10 percent say they are undecided or plan to vote for someone else.

In Wisconsin, Kerry leads Bush, 47-43, with Nader getting 2 percent and 8 percent saying they remain undecided.

And in Ohio, where Nader's status on the ballot remains in question, Kerry leads 49-45, with 6 percent saying they remain undecided or plan to vote for someone else

[agcatter]

Weekend polls.  Figures.

[Defarge]

Kerry behind in Iowa but up in Ohio.  Does that make sense?

[Sam Spade]

What is the record of Chicago Tribune polls?

Honestly, I didn't even know they did polls.  The only other polls I've seen the Tribune release have been done by SUSA.

[MODU]

Kerry +4 in Wisconsin AND Ohio?  I think not.

[bushforever]

The Chicago Tribune was once considered the conservative newspaper.  But now it's nothing but garbage that caters to the yuppies in Lincoln Park and the North Shore.  I don't trust anything from that newspaper...even the comics suck.  There is no way that Bush is leading in IA and losing in OH & WI by 4 pts.  Don't trust these biased polls one bit.  After all, the Chicago Tribune was the newspaper that published the famed "Dewey defeats Truman" back in '48.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Kerry +4 in Wisconsin AND Ohio?  I think not.

Hey, you guys were calling Jersey a tossup when it was +6 for Kerry!  4 points isn't huge, and considering the jobs issue out in the midwest (what they consider most important BTW), it's very possible.  Bush is not frickin FDR, he's not even Clinton.  The base may love the guy, but there's not gonna be some landslide because he approval rating was at 80% 3 years ago.  I think when you are looking at a poll with a canidate down by just 4 and calling it absurd in a close race, you are greatly overestimating this guy's support. 

Only thing I find strange is that I don't think Kerry is doing better in Wisconsin than he is in Minnesota.  I could be wrong, who knows. 

[Shira]

Don't trust these biased polls one bit. 

Do you claim that they changed the numbers they got?

[bushforever]

Don't trust these biased polls one bit. 

Do you claim that they changed the numbers they got?

No, but I claim that they are not expert pollsters and have a reputation of liberal bias.

[Shira]

Don't trust these biased polls one bit. 

Do you claim that they changed the numbers they got?

No, but I claim that they are not expert pollsters and have a reputation of liberal bias.

Let's assume that they are very liberal, how does it affect the numbers?

Let's even assume that they are poor pollsters. Why in this case the numbers deviate necessarily toward Kerry in all four states.

[Sam Spade]

I just want to know their methods and their record, because I've never seen their polls before.

I assume Vorlon would be the one to potentially know these sorts of things.

[mypalfish]

The Wisconsin result isn't surprising in the least.  It may be a few points too favorable to Kerry, but he does have the lead as of yesterday.

[The Vorlon]

Let's even assume that they are poor polsters. Why in this case the numbers deviate necessarily toward Kerry in all four states.

Most of the errors bad pollsters make do actually systemically tend to favor the Dems.

I wrote about a 2 page post on this a few months back.  I'll look for it.

This is a <<generic>> comment BTW, I do not know enough good or bad about the Tribune polls to comment on them specifically.

[bushforever]

Don't trust these biased polls one bit.

Do you claim that they changed the numbers they got?

No, but I claim that they are not expert pollsters and have a reputation of liberal bias.

Let's assume that they are very liberal, how does it affect the numbers?

Let's even assume that they are poor polsters. Why in this case the numbers deviate necessarily toward Kerry in all four states.

Because they only poll in cities or do random calling or ask people at only a certain time, i don't know.  All I know is that I read the Tribune, it's very biased, and they're not experienced pollsters.  It's just like Strategic Vision, Zogby, other unreliable polls.  Most people could agree it's Bush +2 in WI, Bush +2 in OH, Kerry +2 in IA, Kerry +2 in MN.  That's fair, that seems more accurate, more logical.  I don't like polling, even when it does favor the candidate I like.  Because there's too many things that could go wrong or are unaccounted for.  They also can discourage people from voting if the percentages are greater than 5 or 10% towards one candidate.  I like the blue state, red state predictions better.

[Shira]

Because they only poll in cities or do random calling or ask people at only a certain time, i don't know.  All I know is that I read the Tribune, it's very biased, and they're not experienced pollsters.  It's just like Strategic Vision, Zogby, other unreliable polls.  Most people could agree it's Bush +2 in WI, Bush +2 in OH, Kerry +2 in IA, Kerry +2 in MN.  That's fair, that seems more accurate, more logical.  I don't like polling, even when it does favor the candidate I like.  Because there's too many things that could go wrong or are unaccounted for.  They also can discourage people from voting if the percentages are greater than 5 or 10% towards one candidate.  I like the blue state, red state predictions better.

Do you have any relevant information ( sample not random - for example) beside that you don't like their views.

I know some pollsters who explicitly declare their political views and by no means it discredit their polls.

I know nothing about the Chicago Tribune (Lib, Con etc.) and its immaterial.

[bushforever]

Well, say the NRA did a poll and then Planned Parenthood did a poll.  Wouldn't you expect the results to be slanted or inacccurate because a) the group has little experience in state polling and b) because the group has partisan tendencies.  Well, it's the same here.  The Trib is a liberal institution and is not the non-partisan expert pollster that should be running polls.  I think I know my city's newspaper, thank you.

[Whacker77]

I'll put my two cents in on these Tribune polls.  Unless I'm mistaken, they only questioned 500 LV's.  As far as polls go, that seems smaller than usual.  Second, they polled on a Saturday and Sunday.  Third, they are completely opposite of Rasmussen and SV.  Still, they have to be considered.  Only a fool would disregard a bad poll.  Always run from behind.  Stay aggresive.

[elcorazon]

Don't trust these biased polls one bit. 

Do you claim that they changed the numbers they got?

No, but I claim that they are not expert pollsters and have a reputation of liberal bias.

The tribune is NOT liberal.  They may not be competent, but they are NOT liberal.  They thought Bush won the FIRST debate.  No one left of Dick Cheney thought that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Chicago Tribune endorsed Durbin's no name opponent in 2002, who got trashed with less than 40% of the vote. How is that liberal?

[Gustaf]

Kerry +4 in Wisconsin AND Ohio?  I think not.

MoE.

[elcorazon]

I also think Iowa is a good result for Bush.  If these polls are all biased to the left, then Bush is solidly ahead in Iowa, which I doubt also.  Hey, as Vorlon says, it's one poll; throw it on the heap.

[Sam Spade]

FWIW, since I wanted to know the Chicago Tribune's record in polling, I was given a link to this site that detailed it.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmDetail.html?&PollingFirmID=65

They have done 34 races and have averaged overstating the D support level by +4.6364 and have understated the R support level by -5.6526 (and overstated the L support level by +2.9702).

Seems to me that their record is not that great, imo.

[Hegemon]

FWIW, since I wanted to know the Chicago Tribune's record in polling, I was given a link to this site that detailed it.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmDetail.html?&PollingFirmID=65

They have done 34 races and have averaged overstating the D support level by +4.6364 and have understated the R support level by -5.6526 (and overstated the L support level by +2.9702).

Seems to me that their record is not that great, imo.

Actually, a firm called Market Shares Corp. did the Chicago Tribune polls, and according to the website that you linked to, Market Shares has a +1.5316 D, -0.0601 R bias -- very close to Mason-Dixon's accuracy (+1.1260 D, -0.0119 R).  The data on that site looks stale, however ...

[The Vorlon]

FWIW, since I wanted to know the Chicago Tribune's record in polling, I was given a link to this site that detailed it.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/cgi-bin/r.cgi/PollingFirmDetail.html?&PollingFirmID=65

They have done 34 races and have averaged overstating the D support level by +4.6364 and have understated the R support level by -5.6526 (and overstated the L support level by +2.9702).

Seems to me that their record is not that great, imo.

Actually, a firm called Market Shares Corp. did the Chicago Tribune polls, and according to the website that you linked to, Market Shares has a +1.5316 D, -0.0601 R bias -- very close to Mason-Dixon's accuracy (+1.1260 D, -0.0119 R).  The data on that site looks stale, however ...

I do not see where it says who actually did these polls.. do you have a link please ?

[CARLHAYDEN]

The Iowa and Minnesota numbers seem plausible to me.

The Ohio and Wisconsin numbers seem absurd.  My information has Bush up 4 points in Ohio and 3 points in Wisconsin at this time.