Bellwether seats

[Хahar 🤔]

Obviously, control of the United States House of Representatives cannot be determined by a few bellwethers. Nonetheless, it is interesting to try to determine which seats fit the description best.

Interestingly, the answers are Georgia's 8th and Ohio's 18th, both of which have voted for the winner in every election since 1954. As far as I know, both of them are conservative-leaning districts that were heavily Democratic and stayed so during the long period of Democratic ascendancy, before leaving for the Republicans in 1994 and returning to the fold in 2006.

OH-18 will be eliminated soon, so GA-8 will stand alone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The problem is that districts can change substantially when the districts are redrawn.

[minionofmidas]

I think Xahar's aware of that.

I also think he's wrong on GA-8. Didn't that switch numbers in Georgia's mid-decade redistricting, and was a Republican district before?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current incumbent's old district before that was GA-03, a district that doesn't really fit any pre-existing Georgia districts before that.

[Mr. Morden]

What if we just count elections since 1990, so that we only have to worry about the 2000 redistricting?  How many districts voted for a Democrat in the 1992 election, a Republican in the 1994-2004 elections, and a Democrat in the 2006 and 2008 elections?  Or does the 2000 redistricting alone make it too complicated to talk about the continuity of districts from the 1990s to 2000s?

[nclib]

AZ-5 (was AZ-6 in the 1990s)*:

Harry Mitchell (D) 2006-
J.D. Hayworth (R) 1994-2006
Karan English (D) 1992-1994

*District's area dramatically changed in redistricting--not sure about its population and demographics.

IN-8:

Brad Ellsworth (D) 2006-
John Hostettler (R) 1994-2006
Frank McCloskey (D) 1992-1994

MN-1:

Tim Walz (D) 2006-
Gil Gutknecht (R) 1994-2006
Tim Penny (D) 1992-1994

NH-2:

Paul Hodes (D) 2006-
Charlie Bass (R) 1994-2006
Dick Swett (D) 1992-1994

OH-18:

Zack Space (D) 2006-
Bob Ney (R) 1994-2006
Douglas Applegate (D) 1992-1994

[Brittain33]

Those would be it. For seats that followed this pattern except for voting R in 2006:

ID-1
IL-11
OH-1

[Хahar 🤔]

Both districts retained their status in 2010.