What is the state of the economy?

[Richard]

I'm really hoping to get everyone voting on this poll.  What I want to know is what is your personal opinion of the economy today, and where is it going?

If you have a position X, but you want Y, please vote X, and disclose Y.  I don't want people to vote "I hope the economy is recovering," I want them to make an assessment of their personal belief at this time, and vote.

[Richard]

I voted for sinking.

[Vepres]

It's a gas at the moment.

[You kip if you want to...]

"The economy is not improving, but it has stablized -- we have bottomed out, but improvement will come later this year or next year"

I see a recovery starting to begin during the winter.

[opebo]

Option #1, obviously.

[Sam Spade]

Well, the government has flooded (and I mean flooded) the system with liquidity and is spending (I would estimate) an additional 250 billion each quarter into the economy.  I'm going to ignore the rest of the world's contributions for a second because, well, although extremely important, it will only confuse.

For all this, we've managed to see some stabilization in certain sectors of the economy at the Q1 levels.  Deflation is still occurring, of course, but has abated a bit.  For companies, if you spot the earnings levels, for most that means 15%-30% below their earnings of last year.

Ignoring the private economy, we can therefore say that in order to keep things completely stable, the government would need to continue to do what it is presently doing (see above).  Actually, the math says that it would need to be slowly increased from this over time, but we'll leave it at even for simplicity's sake.

So, in order to achieve growth, debt creation will need to occur through the private sector, either at the consumer or business level (through investment).  At this moment, the numbers clearly indicate that the consumer is deleveraging greatly, which is still a very small amount in the whole scheme of things.  For the US consumer to reach its historical debt level, many years of deleveraging at this rate would have to occur.

Things are a bit more inconclusive on the business side, but from what I can gather through corporate data, there is no major industrial or technological expansion occurring.  Many companies have been raising debt, but these are companies whose balance sheets might blow up if the debt was not available.  Plus, if the US consumer is contracting his debt load, I fail to see the incentive for the investment into much of private business (which is aimed towards the consumer).  Sure, there may be an interest in expanding internationally, but those endeavors pale is size and scope (and have their own big problems).  At best, the combination of consumer and business growth is at stasis.

I fail to see how any recovery can occur under these conditions, though I do expect Q3 GDP to be positive just because of the way the revisions were done the past quarter and the amount of government spending that is being done.

Given that, my view is similar to Richius - the question is timing.

[Ronnie]

Option 4 is the best option.

[Mint]

Last option.

[Mart]

It's either option 2 or 3 for me.....voted for #3.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

3 or 4

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Somewhere between 1 and 2, but voted for 2.

[pogo stick]

The economy is weakening overall, although some individual indicators may show otherwise

[Ban my account ffs!]

I picked option 2, though option 3 would work as well.  I think we're seeing a stabilization, but some parts of the economy are beginning to slowly grow.. so I think the momentum has turned around.. it just hasn't started pushing us upward yet.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Option 4 is the best option.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Given what I've seen and experienced in both my 9-to-5 job search and my freelance business, I'd say that we've hit the bottom of the U.  Not that I necessarily expect that we'll experience quick upside growth.

A lot of this downturn had to do with the fear of the unknown, and with housing prices leveling out a bit, I think we'll finally be able to figure out what kind of losses we're looking at when it comes to these "toxic assets."  Simply having that knowledge in hand has to be a good thing.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Option #1, obviously.

[War on Want]

Number 2.

[k-onmmunist]

Option 3.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We've probably bottomed out, for now, but as for an actually recovery? That's still a question that I cannot answer. Some signs say yes, and others say no.

[Democratic Hawk]

Somewhat better than it would have been if them Republicans were still running the show - austerity and WEALTHFARE (the only appropriate term, which encapsulates their tax policy)

A hell of a lot better than if them Tea Baggers were running the show. No bailouts, no stimulus. That would have guaranteed a reprisal of the 'Great Depresssion'

I see much promise in Obama's "investment" strategy and WORKFARE tax policy but I'm not optimistic that positive freedom will, ultimately, triumph against negative freedom, unfortunately

I voted option 2

[TeePee4Prez]

Somewhat better than it would have been if them Republicans were still running the show - austerity and WEALTHFARE (the only appropriate term, which encapsulates their tax policy)

A hell of a lot better than if them Tea Baggers were running the show. No bailouts, no stimulus. That would have guaranteed a reprisal of the 'Great Depresssion'

I see much promise in Obama's "investment" strategy and WORKFARE tax policy but I'm not optimistic that positive freedom will, ultimately, triumph against negative freedom, unfortunately

I voted option 2

Good answer.  Mine as well.  The Sam Spades/Richiuses WANT to see a failure to be able to promote their policies and hopefully have another 1994.  Our economy is too bad for a 1994 to happen.  People are not just all of a sudden go back to the policies that got us in this mess in the 1st place overnight.  It took 6 years to wake up on Bush's policies.

[Sam Spade]

Somewhat better than it would have been if them Republicans were still running the show - austerity and WEALTHFARE (the only appropriate term, which encapsulates their tax policy)

A hell of a lot better than if them Tea Baggers were running the show. No bailouts, no stimulus. That would have guaranteed a reprisal of the 'Great Depresssion'

I see much promise in Obama's "investment" strategy and WORKFARE tax policy but I'm not optimistic that positive freedom will, ultimately, triumph against negative freedom, unfortunately

I voted option 2

Good answer.  Mine as well.  The Sam Spades/Richiuses WANT to see a failure to be able to promote their policies and hopefully have another 1994. 

Far from it.  In this case, I am merely an observer and have no political goals or wishes in mind.  In fact, if what I think will happen actually comes anywhere close to happening, the end result will be something far from what I want.  I have noted that on many occasions going back to September 2008.  I don't speak for Richius, however, so maybe his posts are motivated by such hopes.  I don't know.

The scope of what happened in Fall of 2008 caught me off-guard because I was completely unaware that what was going on was greater than the mere collapse of a liquidity-driven housing bubble (not to mention its extent - which still amazes me).  For that, I apologize - I was too focused on politics and my own legal studies, even though I smelled "big" housing bubble since 2005 or so and acted accordingly with my own money.

I do want to say that I find it rather remarkable that you accuse my positions of being politically driven when the above two posts are nothing but politically-driven nonsense devoid of economic facts and realities.

I will be nice and leave with some helpful advice for anyone who own stock.  I expect the ISM manufacturing index to beat expectations and to probably go above 50.  Please use any bounce that occurs based on this number to either start getting out of your stock market positions or finish getting out, whichever.  The parabolic blowoff I thought might occur Friday before last has not occurred and time has pretty much run out on that scenario, I suspect (or may have already run out - you know, they don't ring bells at the top). 

The danger is that I'm a bit too early and that the jmfcst/opebo's of this world will continue to crow and lead people off on the wrong path for a while longer.  That's the way it goes.  Better safe than sorry.

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I'm just waiting for some people here (and it ain't just you or Democrats in general) to realize that, economically, Bush's policies are Obama's policies and vice versa, just that the benefited elites don't always align.  If we ever reach that point, then maybe we get somewhere.

[opebo]

The danger is that I'm a bit too early and that the jmfcst/opebo's of this world will continue to crow and lead people off on the wrong path for a while longer.  That's the way it goes.  Better safe than sorry.

Who would have ever thought the emboldened conjunction would have been reasonable?  But it is.  However, though jmfcst and I agree on the economy, I know that I am not 'crowing' (can't speak for him).  I'm not particularly pleased about the state of policy, as it has not changed from the extreme right, nor does the economy effect me much directly.  I

I only hold the position I do because it seems the most likely outcome.

I'm just waiting for some people here (and it ain't just you or Democrats in general) to realize that, economically, Bush's policies are Obama's policies and vice versa, just that the benefited elites don't always align.  If we ever reach that point, then maybe we get somewhere.

Um, lots of us left-leaners always say that the Democrats are a center-right party, scarcely any different at all from the Republicans.  Basically the Democrats are the same as the Republicans on economics, at least in all important or substantive ways, and the only distinction between the parties is the very fine one about social issues.

[Democratic Hawk]

The danger is that I'm a bit too early and that the jmfcst/opebo's of this world will continue to crow and lead people off on the wrong path for a while longer.  That's the way it goes.  Better safe than sorry.

Who would have ever thought the emboldened conjunction would have been reasonable?  But it is.  However, though jmfcst and I agree on the economy, I know that I am not 'crowing' (can't speak for him).  I'm not particularly pleased about the state of policy, as it has not changed from the extreme right, nor does the economy effect me much directly.  I

I only hold the position I do because it seems the most likely outcome.

I'm just waiting for some people here (and it ain't just you or Democrats in general) to realize that, economically, Bush's policies are Obama's policies and vice versa, just that the benefited elites don't always align.  If we ever reach that point, then maybe we get somewhere.

Um, lots of us left-leaners always say that the Democrats are a center-right party, scarcely any different at all from the Republicans.  Basically the Democrats are the same as the Republicans on economics, at least in all important or substantive ways, and the only distinction between the parties is the very fine one about social issues.

Democrats are way better on economic and quality of life issues. In the neoliberal era, most of the 22% increase in median incomes occurred under Clinton

Whether or not Obama can liberate himself from the "cult of neoliberalism", I don't know - but there won't be any going back to pre-Reagan tax rates; a welfare system that rewarded idleness over work (that only served to see the white working class - a pillar of the 'New Deal' - increasingly vote Republican) or a mixed economy

The way I see it is this:

Left: WELFARE ('Great Society')..... Center: WORKFARE ('New Deal').... Right: WEALTHFARE (Neoliberalism and conservatism)

No gold stars for guessing which path I urge the president and congressional Democrat to take moving forward

The bailouts, arguably WEALTHFARE, were necessary to avert a reprisal of the 'Great Depression'. Aye, big bad evil government riding to capitalism's rescue - AGAIN!

There you have it. Classical liberalism produced a catastrophe (the seeds of the 'Great Depression', precipitated by the 'Wall Street Crash' were sown while Coolidge snored - and farted) and neoliberalism produced a near catastrophe.

Well done, negative freedom . It's frustrating to think just how many still subscribe to it

As for the Republican Party, it's rightwing dogmatoid to the point of encapsulating Einstein's definition of insanity. If there were any standards of good governance whatsoever that party would have hit 1932 levels by now

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I will be nice and leave with some helpful advice for anyone who own stock.  I expect the ISM manufacturing index to beat expectations and to probably go above 50.  Please use any bounce that occurs based on this number to either start getting out of your stock market positions or finish getting out, whichever.  The parabolic blowoff I thought might occur Friday before last has not occurred and time has pretty much run out on that scenario, I suspect (or may have already run out - you know, they don't ring bells at the top).

You and others on this forum have been whining in the face of the best 6 months of the stock market in over 70 years!  Barring external factors, this market is not going to implode, but it does need a correction.  I for one would love to see a 10% pullback in the S&P with financials off 20% from these levels.  It would be a GREAT buying opportunity.

The vast majority of last week’s and today’s economic reports blew away the estimates.  The fact that the market eased off in the face of all these good reports simply means the market needs a breather.

Barring a geopolitical blowup, we are going to have at least 3% GDP growth the last 2 quarters of this year.  There is literally a wall of money, that is still frozen and illiquid, waiting to enter the economy.  This growth will help free up a good portion of that money.

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The danger is that I'm a bit too early and that the jmfcst/opebo's of this world will continue to crow and lead people off on the wrong path for a while longer.  That's the way it goes.  Better safe than sorry.

Labeling opebo and me as one and the same is like comparing a drug addict with someone who takes medication only during times of illness.