Dick Morris sees Democrats losing 100 House seats in 2010

[OC]

The man clearly flip flops from one party to the other to sell his books.  He clearly thinks that the health care reform plan being unpopular the way it is and the Hillary v. Condi race are going to sell the best amont of books.  This guy isn't a Democrat to me anymore.  He is a fox news analyst and I leave it at that.

[Mr.Phips]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

[Senator Ben]

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Or VA-11.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The man who predicted Condi v. Hiillary race in 2008 is no longer an authority for me

No longer? So he ever was?

[nhmagic]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

The man who predicted Condi v. Hiillary race in 2008 is no longer an authority for me

No longer? So he ever was?

Damn it, how can I write this

He's no longer authority in political matters at all

[Mr.Phips]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

Ciro got elected in 2006 after the district was redrawn to be heavily Hispanic. 

CO-03 is a seat that Dems picked up in 2004(not a good year for Democrats)

And Giffords and Kirkpatrick are NOT too liberal for their districts.  They will both likely vote against healthcare and Kirkpatrick even voted against cap and trade.  AZ-01 has a large Democratic registration advantage. 

In CA-11, McNerney won by 10 points in 2008 in a seat wher Republicans have almost no bench anymore.  Not to mention Obama also carried the district handily. 

[nhmagic]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

Ciro got elected in 2006 after the district was redrawn to be heavily Hispanic. 

CO-03 is a seat that Dems picked up in 2004(not a good year for Democrats)

And Giffords and Kirkpatrick are NOT too liberal for their districts.  They will both likely vote against healthcare and Kirkpatrick even voted against cap and trade.  AZ-01 has a large Democratic registration advantage. 

In CA-11, McNerney won by 10 points in 2008 in a seat wher Republicans have almost no bench anymore.  Not to mention Obama also carried the district handily. 

You're from Massachusetts right...Giffords has already said that she will vote for a healthcare bill with a public option.  She voted for Cap and Trade.  She does not listen to her constituents, she hides from them and does not hold open town halls.  She is always seen following Pelosi around and the district is R+4.  Stimulus, omnibus, cap and trade and healthcare are all too liberal for that district.  There are protesters in the streets in her district - she has three military guys gunning for her job.  She is going to go down in 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

Ciro got elected in 2006 after the district was redrawn to be heavily Hispanic. 

CO-03 is a seat that Dems picked up in 2004(not a good year for Democrats)

And Giffords and Kirkpatrick are NOT too liberal for their districts.  They will both likely vote against healthcare and Kirkpatrick even voted against cap and trade.  AZ-01 has a large Democratic registration advantage. 

In CA-11, McNerney won by 10 points in 2008 in a seat wher Republicans have almost no bench anymore.  Not to mention Obama also carried the district handily. 

You're from Massachusetts right...Giffords has already said that she will vote for a healthcare bill with a public option.  She voted for Cap and Trade.  She does not listen to her constituents, she hides from them and does not hold open town halls.  She is always seen following Pelosi around and the district is R+4.  Stimulus, omnibus, cap and trade and healthcare are all too liberal for that district.  There are protesters in the streets in her district - she has three military guys gunning for her job.  She is going to go down in 2010.

Spare me.  Those Republicans running against her are raising almost no money. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm starting to suspect that azmagic is a disgruntled former Giffords boyfriend.

As for Morris, I'd pay good money to see him in a Crossfire-like show with Mike Gravel as his liberal counterpart. Preferably on Comedy Channel.   

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.breitbart.tv/dick-morris-democrats-could-lose-100-seats-in-2010/

On Hannity's show a few nights back, political pundit Dick Morris predicts that Democrats could lose 100 House seats in 2010 because of "the massive debt that Obama is creating". 

I really just have to laugh at this.  If Republicans are going to pick up anywhere near 100 seats, they are going to have to pick up seats like CA-10 in the special election on Tuesday and will also have to get many blacks in black majority districts to switch to their side and vote Republican.  A 100 seat loss would put Democrats at just 157 House seats and 278 for Republicans.  Simply not possible. 

*facepalm*



EDIT: Wait. The Democrats don't even have 278 seats now after easily winning in '06 and '08. WTF? That makes this prediction worse. Has there EVER been an election with a swing like that?

[Senator Ben]

The last time either Party held 278 seats was when the Democrats had 292 during the 95th Congress, from 1977-1979; they held 277 during the 9th Congress, as well.  The GOP gained 130 seats in 1894, and lost 101 in the 1932 Election.  The Democrats lost 125 in 1894.

[Smash255]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

NY-1 covers part of LI (eastern & central Suffolk) is where I was when I was in college (live in NY-3 now).  Bishop is safe.  He is a 4th term incumbent (knocked off the GOP incumbent Grucci in 2002) and the GOP has no bench whatsoever in the district.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

The last time either Party held 278 seats was when the Democrats had 292 during the 95th Congress, from 1977-1979; they held 277 during the 9th Congress, as well.  The GOP gained 130 seats in 1894, and lost 101 in the 1932 Election.  The Democrats lost 125 in 1894.

     Is that a typo? I would be surprised if there were even that many seats in the House of Representatives that early on.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

The man clearly flip flops from one party to the other to sell his books.  He clearly thinks that the health care reform plan being unpopular the way it is and the Hillary v. Condi race are going to sell the best amont of books.  This guy isn't a Democrat to me anymore.  He is a fox news analyst and I leave it at that.

He  was never really a Democrat.  He was a Repub strategist before the Clinton campaign.  He was just a conservative working for Clinton.  I think he's always pretty much been a Repub.

[OC]

He  was never really a Democrat.  He was a Repub strategist before the Clinton campaign.  He was just a conservative working for Clinton.  I think he's always pretty much been a Repub.
[/quote]

Except, I was going by when he said on the Geraldo Rivera show last February, that he and Geraldo campaigned in with the Democrats in the 1968 election, along with the support of the DNC.

He has clearly changed party stripes if anything from his advisor roll in the Clinton administration to a conservative analyst on TV.

[Senator Ben]

The last time either Party held 278 seats was when the Democrats had 292 during the 95th Congress, from 1977-1979; they held 277 during the 9th Congress, as well.  The GOP gained 130 seats in 1894, and lost 101 in the 1932 Election.  The Democrats lost 125 in 1894.

     Is that a typo? I would be surprised if there were even that many seats in the House of Representatives that early on.

It is, I meant the 96th Congress; there were only 142 members during the 9th Congress.

[Senator Ben]

So, if the GOP wins every CD that is held by a Democrat and has a CPVI of >R +1, they would gain 69 seats.  The GOP will now win another 31 even more Democratic seats, according to Dick Morris.

[Badger]

There are millions of unemployed qualified people, and Dick Morris still has a job?

Fox has a lot of time to fill bj-ing the GOP & shi$ing on Obama.

And as for the other wild claims of 40+ seat Republican pick-ups, I revert to my standard wild-speculation stopper:

What odds would you require before betting $100 on it?

I gotta set up an Intrade account this year. Lotta gullible birthers and deathers out there who's money I'd love to take.

[Former Moderate]

There are millions of unemployed qualified people, and Dick Morris still has a job?

Fox has a lot of time to fill bj-ing the GOP & shi$ing on Obama.

And as for the other wild claims of 40+ seat Republican pick-ups, I revert to my standard wild-speculation stopper:

What odds would you require before betting $100 on it?

I gotta set up an Intrade account this year. Lotta gullible birthers and deathers out there who's money I'd love to take.

The real money isn't made from partisans, it's from people who can't think beyond "red state, blue state, never the two shall mix."  Which is a lot of people on this forum, I'm sad to say.

Also people who stupidly thought that Romney would be VP.  That was a freakin' goldmine.

[Badger]

There are millions of unemployed qualified people, and Dick Morris still has a job?

Fox has a lot of time to fill bj-ing the GOP & shi$ing on Obama.

And as for the other wild claims of 40+ seat Republican pick-ups, I revert to my standard wild-speculation stopper:

What odds would you require before betting $100 on it?

I gotta set up an Intrade account this year. Lotta gullible birthers and deathers out there who's money I'd love to take.

The real money isn't made from partisans, it's from people who can't think beyond "red state, blue state, never the two shall mix."  Which is a lot of people on this forum, I'm sad to say.

Also people who stupidly thought that Romney would be VP.  That was a freakin' goldmine.

I'm kicking myself for not trying to collect on the diehards willing to bet Ron Paul would win the NH primary less than a month out.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1994 GOP Wave. Republicans made a net gain of 54 seats.
1)AZ-1 (Bush 41) 40-34-  now AZ-5 and AZ-6.
2)AZ-6 (Bush 41) 38-38- now AZ-1 and AZ-5- Democrats unseated Hayworth who represented AZ-5 after 2002 redistricting in 2006. Democrats won AZ-1 a new District in 2002 in 2008.
3)CA-1 (Clinton) 47-29- Democrats won back CA-1 in 1998.
4)CA-19 (Bush 41) 44-38-  Safe GOP District.
5)CA-49 (Clinton) 43-32- now CA-53- Democrats won back CA-49 in 2000- which became CA-53 in 2002 redistricting.
6)FL-1 (Bush 41) 51-26- Safe GOP District.
7)FL-15 (Bush 41) 43-31- Safe GOP District.
8)GA-7 (Bush 41) 47-39 - now GA-11 Safe GOP District.
9)GA-8 (Bush 41) 45-40- Democrats won back GA-8 in 2002 redistricting.
10)GA-10 (Bush 41) 46-39- Safe GOP District.
11)ID-1 (Bush 41) 42-31- Democrats won ID-1 in 2008.
12)IL-5 (Clinton) 51-33- Democrats won back IL-5 in 1996.
13)IL-11 (Clinton) 44-36- Democrats won back IL-11 in 2008.
14)IN-2 (Bush 41) 43-35 now IN-6 Safe GOP District.
15)IN-4 (Bush 41) 46-31 now IN-3 Safe GOP District.
16)IN-8 (Clinton) 43-40 Democrats won back IN-8 in 2006.
17)IA-4 (Clinton) 43-39- now IA-5 Safe GOP District
18)KS-2 (Bush 41) 36-36 Democrats won KS-2 in 2006 but lost it in 2008.
19)KS-4 (Bush 41) 40-33- Safe GOP District.
20)KY-1 (Clinton) 48-40- Safe GOP District.
21)KY-2 (Bush 41) 45-41- Safe GOP District.
22)ME-1 (Clinton) 40-32- Democrats won back ME-1 in 1996.
23)MI-8 (Clinton) 41-36- Democrats won back MI-8 in 1996 but lost it in 2000. In 2002- MI-8 became more Republican. MI-8 can be won back in a huge Democratic wave and a right candidate.
25)MN-1 (Clinton) 39-35- Democrats won back MN-1 in 2006.
26)MS-1 (Bush 41) 50-42- Democrats won back MS-1 in 2008.
27)NE-2 (Bush 41) 48-32- District is now Democratic Friendly.
28)NV-1 (Clinton) 44-31 Democrats won back NV-1 in 1998.
29)NH-2 (Clinton) 41-37- Democrats won back NH-2 in 2006.
30)NJ-2 (Clinton) 41-39- Safe GOP District but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat.
31)NJ-8 (Clinton) 46-43- Democrats won back NJ-8 in 1996.
32)NY-1 (Bush 41) 40-38- Democrats won back NY-1 in 2002-
33)NC-2 (Bush 41) 46-40 Democrats won back NC-2 in 1996.
34)NC-3 (Bush 41) 46-39 Safe GOP Seat.
35)NC-4 (Clinton) 47-39 Democrats won back NC-4 in 1996.
36)NC-5 (Bush 41) 44-43- Safe GOP Seat.
37)OH-1 (Clinton) 43-43- Democrats won back OH-1 in 2008
38)OH-6 (Bush 41) 40-40- Democrats won back OH-6 in 1996
39)OH-18 (Clinton) 43-34- Democrats won back OH-18 in 2006 after the District was gerrymandered to be more Republican.
40)OH-19 (Clinton) 40-37- Now OH-14 Safe GOP District but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat.
41)OK-2 (Clinton) 43-36 Democrats won back OK-2 in 2000.
42)OK-4 (Bush 41) 42-34 Safe GOP seat.
43)OK-6 (Bush 41) 43-34 Safe GOP Seat Now OK-6
44)OR-5 (Clinton) 40-35- Democrats won back OR-5 in 1996
45)PA-13 (Clinton) 44-40- Democrats won back PA-13 in 1998-
46)SC-3 (Bush 41) 52-35 Safe GOP Seat.
47)TN-3 (Bush 41) 44-44- Safe GOP Seat.
48)TN-4 (Clinton) 48-40- Democrats won back TN-4 in 2002.
49)TX-9 (Clinton) 44-36 Democrats won back TX-9 in 1996- The old TX-9 was eliminated during the 2003 Delaymander.
50)TX-13 (Bush 41) 43-36 Safe GOP Seat.
51)UT-2 (Bush 41) 39-31 Democrats won back UT-2 in 2000.
52)VA-11 (Bush 41) 43-43 Democrats won back VA-11 in 2008.
53)WA-1 (Clinton) 41-32 Democrats won back WA-1 in 1998.
54)WA-2 (Clinton) 41-33 Democrats won back WA-2 in 2000.
55)WA-3 (Clinton) 42-33 Democrats won back WA-3 in 1998.
56)WA-4 (Bush 41) 43-35 Safe GOP Seat.
57)WA-5 (Clinton) 40-37 Safe GOP Seat.
58)WA-9 (Clinton) 42-31 Democrats won back WA-9 in 1996.
59)WI-1 (Clinton) 41-36- Safe GOP Seat but Democrats can win it back if OPEN Seat or wave.
Democrats won
1)ME-2 (Clinton) 38-29
2)MN-6 (Clinton) 41-32- District was re-numbered MN-2 in 2002 became more GOP Friendly.-now held Republican.
3)PA-18 (Clinton) 52-31 Now Renumbered PA-14.
4)RI-1 (Clinton) 50-28

The Red District Democrats house members who survived the 1994 GOP wave was.
1)AL-3 (Browder)- retired in 1996- went Republican- Safe GOP.
2)AL-4 (Bevill)- retired in 1996- went Republican- Safe GOP.
3)AL-5 (Cramer)- retired in 2008- Democrat Griffith narrowly won seat in 2008.
4)GA-9 (Deal) switch parties in 1995- Safe GOP seat.
5)IN-3 (Roemer)- now IN-2- retired in 2002- went Republican in 2002- Democrats won IN-2 back in 2006.
6)KY-6 (Baesler)- retired in 1998 went Republican- Democrats won back KY-6 in 2004.
7)MI-10 (Bonior) retired in 2002- Went Republican- Safe GOP.
8)MS-3 (Montgomery)- retired in 1996- went Republican Safe GOP seat.
9)MS-4 (Parker)- switched parties in 1995- retired in 1998- went back Democratic- eliminated in 2002.
10)MO-4 (Skelton).
11)NC-8 (Hefner). retired in 1998- went Republican. Democrats won back NC-8 in 2008.
12)ND-AL (Pomeroy).
13)PA-6 (Holden)- now PA-17- gerrymandered into a GOP freindly District in 2002 and survived ever since.
14)SC-5 (Spratt)
15)SD-AL (Johnson)- ran for US Senate in 1996- seat went Republican- Democrats won it back in 2004.
16)TX-4 (Hall)- switched Parties in 2004- safe GOP seat.
17)TX-11 (Edwards)- now TX-17- gerrymandered into GOP friendly district in 2004 Delaymander and survived.
18)TX-14 (Laughlin)- switched parties in 1995-lost in GOP primary- Safe GOP seat.
19)TX-17 (Stenholm)- The OLD TX-17 was eliminated in 2004 Delaymander.
20)VA-2 (Pickett)- retired in 2000- seat went Republican. Democrats won it back in 2008.
21)VA-4(Sisisiky)-died in 2001- seat went Republican- safe GOP seat.
22)VA-5 (Payne)- retired in 1996- Goode elected as a Democrat became Republican held onto the seat until his defeat in 2008.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

AZ-1 Ann Kirkpatrick
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords
AL-2 Bobby Bright 
ID-1 Walter Minnick
MD-1 Frank Kratovil
NM-2 Harry Teague
OH-15 Mary Jo Kilroy
PA-7 OPEN (Sestak)
AL-5 Parker Griffith
CO-4 Betsy Markey
FL-8 Alan Grayson
MI-7 Mark Schauer
NV-3 Dina Titus
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter
NH-2 OPEN (Hodes)
NY-29 Eric Massa
NC-8 Larry Kissell
OH-16 John Boccieri
OH-18 Zack Space 
VA-2 Glenn Nye
VA-5 Tom Perriello
AR-1 Marion Berry
CA-11 Jerry McNerney
CO-3 John Salazar
FL-24 Suzanne Kosmas
GA-8 Jim Marshall
NJ-3 John Adler
NY-1 Tim Bishop
NY-20 Scott Murphy
PA-4 Jason Altmire
PA-10 Chris Carney
PA-12 John Murtha 
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez
LA-3 OPEN (Melancon) R+12

and a couple of other dem ones too...

Democrats are not going to lose TX-23, NY-01, CO-03, CA-11, AZ-01, or AZ-08.

Ciro just got elected in 2008 - he's a first term dem in incredibly unfriendly territory
Ny-01: you may be right (is that the long island district though?)
CO-03: another first term dem (i think) in unfriendly territory
CA-11: McNerney is a joke, he was elected in 2006 and 08 because of waves, we will win this back as long as we have a good candidate
AZ-01 & AZ-08: way too liberal for our districts, Giffords is making enemies left and right, her constituents dislike her. Both districts have like a 6pt republican advantage in them as well.

Ciro got elected in 2006 after the district was redrawn to be heavily Hispanic. 

CO-03 is a seat that Dems picked up in 2004(not a good year for Democrats)

And Giffords and Kirkpatrick are NOT too liberal for their districts.  They will both likely vote against healthcare and Kirkpatrick even voted against cap and trade.  AZ-01 has a large Democratic registration advantage. 

In CA-11, McNerney won by 10 points in 2008 in a seat wher Republicans have almost no bench anymore.  Not to mention Obama also carried the district handily. 

Add PA-7.  If and only if Pat Meehan is the nominee does the GOP stand a greater than 20% chance of winning.  Sestak won the district handily over a not to shabby Williams and Obama was lights out there.

PA-12:  Better run a moderate.  Bill Russell is too far right even for that area.

OH-15 and MI-7 I beg to differ as well.

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Held US House Districts that went for McCain.
1)MS-4 (Taylor-D) 32-68
2)TX-17 (Edwards-D) 32-67
3)OK-2 (Boren-D) 34-66
4)TN-4 (Davis-D) 34-64
5)AL-2 (Bright-D) 36-63
6)ID-1 (Minnick-D)36-62
7)MS-1 (Childers-D) 38-62
8)TN-6 (Gordon-D) 37-62
9)LA-3 (Melancon-D)37-61
10)MO-4 (Skelton-D) 38-61
11)AL-5 (Griffith-D) 38-61
12)AR-1 (Berry-D) 38-59
13)VA-9 (Boucher-D) 40-59
14)AR-4 (Ross-D) 39-58
15)UT-2 (Matheson-D) 39-57
16)MD-1 (Kravitol-D) 40-58
17)WV-1 (Mollohan-D) 42-57
18)WV-2 (Rahall-D) 42-56
19)TN-8 (Tanner-D) 43-56
20)SC-5 (Spratt-D) 43-56
21)GA-8 (Marshall-D) 43-56
22)KY-6 (Chandler-D)43-55
23)PA-4 (Altmire-D) 44-55
24)AR-2 (Snyder-D) 44-54
25)AZ-1 (Kilpatrick-D) 44-54
26)FL-2 (Boyd-D) 45-54
27)PA-10 (Carney-D) 45-54
28)ND-AL(Pomeroy-D) 45-53
29)SD-AL (Herseth-D) 45-53
30)OH-18 (Space-D) 45-52
31)AZ-8 (Giffords-D) 46-52
32)NC-7 (McIntyre-D) 47-52
33)NC-11(Schuler-D) 47-52
34)AZ-5 (Mitchell-D) 47-52
35)IN-8 (Ellsworth-D) 47-51
36)VA-5 (Perriello-D) 48-51
37)PA-17 (Holden-D) 48-51
38)NY-29 (Massa-D) 48-51
39)MN-7 (Peterson-D) 47-50
40)CO-3 (Salazar-D) 47-50
41)FL-24 (Kozmas-D) 49-51
42)OH-6 (Wilson-D) 48-50
43)OH-16 (Boccieri-D) 48-50
44)NY-13 (MacMahon-D) 49-51
45)IN-9 (Hill-D) 49-50
46)CO-4 (Markey-D) 49-50
47)NM-2 (Teague-D) 49-50
48)PA-12 (Murtha-D) 49-50
49)PA-3 (Dahlkemper-D) 49-49

Looking at the 49 McCain Democratic US House Districts.  The following US House Seats are likely to flip.
1)TX-17
2)TN-4
3)AL-2
4)ID-1
5)MS-1
6)LA-3 OPEN
7)AL-5
8)MD-1
9)GA-8
10)AZ-1
11)PA-10
12)OH-18
13)AZ-8
14)AZ-5
15)VA-5
16)NY-29
17)FL-24
18)OH-16
19)CO-4
20)NM-2
21)PA-12
22)PA-3

Other Democratic US House Members that might lose.
1)FL-8
2)MI-7
3)NY-20
4)NY-24
5)OH-1
6)OH-15
7)VA-2
8)NH-2
9)PA-7

We pickup LA-2,IL-10,PA-6 and DE-AL

At most Republicans will pick up 25 seats.

[Sam Spade]

There are millions of unemployed qualified people, and Dick Morris still has a job?

Fox has a lot of time to fill bj-ing the GOP & shi$ing on Obama.

And as for the other wild claims of 40+ seat Republican pick-ups, I revert to my standard wild-speculation stopper:

What odds would you require before betting $100 on it?

I gotta set up an Intrade account this year. Lotta gullible birthers and deathers out there who's money I'd love to take.

The real money isn't made from partisans, it's from people who can't think beyond "red state, blue state, never the two shall mix."  Which is a lot of people on this forum, I'm sad to say.

Also people who stupidly thought that Romney would be VP.  That was a freakin' goldmine.

Can I include people who think Romney will ever be President (much less nominee)?

Btw, as silly as this scenario is, it's looking more realistic every day (but still obviously not very - to put it mildly - let's not get silly)