General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 05:52:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: General Election 2010 Forum Forecasts  (Read 5186 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: March 21, 2010, 12:24:38 PM »

Think you must have Blackburn and Burnley mixed up there.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: March 21, 2010, 01:03:19 PM »



...I'm pretty confident that Wallasey will be a Labour hold. Hardly a toss-up.

I'm surprised you have Bolton West and NE down as pretty certain Tory holds.  My gut feeling is that West is too close to call (it's my seat) but Labour should hold NE.

(I actually misread the map and thought you had Wythenshawe down as too close to call!)

That was my reaction with Wallasey. It's a Labour hold unless they fall below 200 seats nationally.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: March 21, 2010, 01:22:23 PM »

Well, Harry's showing Labour at a minimum of 104 seats outside Yorkshire & Humberside, the West Midlands and Wales. Which probably comes out to, what, 160-175 nationally?
Logged
Hans-im-Glück
Franken
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,970
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: March 21, 2010, 01:30:10 PM »

I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?

Is it possible that the BNP or UKIP gets a seat?
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: March 21, 2010, 01:32:54 PM »

I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?
The leader of the largest party will become Prime Minister. He is likely to attempt to run a minority government, preferring longterm instability to shortterm constitutional improvising that could backfire. A coalition *might* become an option, if the conditions are just right (ie Labour-LD or Tory-LD has a solid majority but Labour or the Tories are quite far from a majority of their own) but it's unlikelyish even then.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
The first is highly improbable. The latter is impossible.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: March 21, 2010, 02:29:10 PM »

Well, Harry's showing Labour at a minimum of 104 seats outside Yorkshire & Humberside, the West Midlands and Wales. Which probably comes out to, what, 160-175 nationally?

The tallies are:
Conservatives 366 (+156) of which 29 are too close to call
Labour 183 (-166) of which 30 are too close to call
Liberal Democrats 63 (+1) of which 9 are too close to call
Scottish National Party 11 (+5) of which 2 are too close to call
Plaid Cymru 5 (+3) of which 1 is too close to call
Green 1 (+1) of which 1 is too close to call
Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 (Unchanged)
Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 1 (Unchanged)

That was based on the February average polls. On March 31st I will do a new set of calculations and reflect the revival in Labour that March has seen.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: March 24, 2010, 10:36:45 AM »

Wales (my own patch)

Logged
k-onmmunist
Winston Disraeli
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,753
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: March 26, 2010, 03:58:25 AM »

I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?
The leader of the largest party will become Prime Minister. He is likely to attempt to run a minority government, preferring longterm instability to shortterm constitutional improvising that could backfire. A coalition *might* become an option, if the conditions are just right (ie Labour-LD or Tory-LD has a solid majority but Labour or the Tories are quite far from a majority of their own) but it's unlikelyish even then.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
The first is highly improbable. The latter is impossible.

Actually, both are impossible. But UKIP actually has slightly more chance than the BNP
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2010, 09:01:14 AM »

I have 2 questions:

What happens if no party achieved a majority? Will we then see a coalition in the UK and who can form a coalition with whom?
The leader of the largest party will become Prime Minister. He is likely to attempt to run a minority government, preferring longterm instability to shortterm constitutional improvising that could backfire. A coalition *might* become an option, if the conditions are just right (ie Labour-LD or Tory-LD has a solid majority but Labour or the Tories are quite far from a majority of their own) but it's unlikelyish even then.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
The first is highly improbable. The latter is impossible.

Actually, both are impossible. But UKIP actually has slightly more chance than the BNP

The BNP have more of a chance...
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: March 26, 2010, 12:18:30 PM »

There is one seat the BNP might gain if hell really boils over for Labour. There is no seat UKIP might gain no matter what.
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,940
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: March 26, 2010, 12:25:06 PM »

There is one seat the BNP might gain if hell really boils over for Labour. There is no seat UKIP might gain no matter what.

The BNP do have a better chance at taking the Barking and Dagenham Council
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: March 26, 2010, 12:25:35 PM »

There is one seat the BNP might gain if hell really boils over for Labour. There is no seat UKIP might gain no matter what.

The BNP do have a better chance at taking the Barking and Dagenham Council

Doubtful.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: March 28, 2010, 11:50:56 AM »

West Midlands

Yorkshire
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: March 31, 2010, 12:04:24 PM »

March Average Polls Forecasts

Blaenau Gwent People's Voice 1 (0 too close to call)
Conservatives 327 (28 too close to call)
Kidderminister Health Concern 1 (0 too close to call)
Labour 241 (21 too close to call)
Liberal Democrats 49 (15 too close to call)
Plaid Cymru 5 (0 too close to call)
Scottish National Party 7 (0 too close to call)

(Maps to follow)
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: March 31, 2010, 12:37:34 PM »

I'd be amazed if any of the three seats entirely within Sandwell MBC are lost and surprised if any were halfway close.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.222 seconds with 11 queries.