French Regionals 2010

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.

[Umengus]

Sarkozy doesnt care about regional elections. he considers, and he's right IMO, that presidential election will be different for lots reasons: turnout, candidates, topics,...

Even a crushing defeat for UMP will not alter the chance of Sarkozy to be reelected.

Another interessant thing: criminality is the second topic mentioned in the ifop polls. And secondly, the last polls (Paca, MP and Aquitaine) show a FN in progression, not so way off than their 2004 level).

[Hash]

Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.

We'll see but I'd be really surprised it happens, Onesta is a serious guy and can make damages, but in the same debate, he said he has been very happy of the attitude of far-left with him, and say he could ally with them if possible to stand up against PS, but the guy of the far-left said he will do everything to make win the left (then allying with PS), so...

I really tend to think it was a way for Onesta to express his anger toward Malvy for his behavior until now, but I'd be really surprised Onesta takes the risk of maintaining himself, plus maybe things will happen nationally between PS and EE between the 2 rounds, and national directions could impose things in regions.

Anyways, Malvy didn't really appear as upset about this, though, well, let's see...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A bit more about this, Midi-Pyrénées couldn't be the only one concerned, at least in current declarations, here they speak about it for Rhône-Alpes and Poitou-Charentes as well:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/3/20100226/tpl-regionales-europe-ecologie-duflot-cfb2994_2.html

Would be fun in Poitou-Charentes to see how Ségolène deals with it, and well, if Colomb continues the 'Frêche is my good ole buddy' could be good for EE there, and could also incite them to maintain themselves in the second run. Though all of this can be, like for Onesta I tend to think, mainly to impress. Though, I'm waiting for EE results in Rhône-Alpes.

Also, maybe you've seen it:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/63/20100226/tfr-affiche-anti-musulmans-du-fn-la-licr-019dcf9_1.html

Well, sure, if FN comes back to good ole methods, they can challenge Bloc Identitaire in PACA, but the latter are some specialists in these kinds of methods, to be seen...

Anyways, amusingly enough:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/76/20100225/tpl-le-fn-accus-d-avoir-copi-l-affiche-s-894f5eb_2.html

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The Greenies have been lukewarm partners with Royal in Poitou so far, so it wouldn't be entirely surprising; and they have had digs on Rhône-Alpes for quite some time (since June, basically). Though I think this is only a little temper tantrum on their part to affirm their independence, just like the NC played its little tantrum earlier this year when it threatened separate lists in IdF, Alsace, Bretagne et al. Nothing will come of nothing, so the Greenies must do something in order to get something even though they'll probably do nothing in the end.

The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.

Hence the 3rd link of my post.

[Hash]

More on EE's threat: http://regionales.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/02/26/europe-ecologie-lance-un-bras-de-fer-avec-le-ps/#xtor=RSS-32280322

It mentions Poitou-Charentes, Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes and... Bretagne. The only region were a EE-PS-UMP runoff might hurt the left's chances at holding the region are in Rhône-Alpes (despite the article saying it could help the right in Poitou as well, but journalists don't know squat about voting patterns).

We'll see if it's a temper tantrum or a real threat in the next few days, I guess.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (Paris)

02/25-26

Pecresse (UMP): 32 % (=)
Huchon (PS): 25 % (+1)
Duflot (EE): 15 % (-2)

Arnautu (FN): 7,5 % (-0,5)
Front de gauche: 7 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)
Besancenot (NPA): 3 % (-1)
Aignant (debout la République): 2,5 % (=)

Huchon: 55 %
Pecresse: 45 %

[Hash]

Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.

[big bad fab]

...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.

But my analysis is that the abstention, even if it hurts the left, will first hurt... the UMP !

Because it seems over and because some of the PS regional barons aren't so bad (Rousset, Queyranne, Le Drian, Malvy, Patriat, Beauvais, even Huchon).

Because many of the voters who were former FN voters and Sarkozy voters in 2007 but who weren't from the left "sociologically" will abstain. An dthose who are "sociologically" leftists will vote for Mélenchon and the PCF.
Many mainstream rightists will abstain because of failed or uncompleted "reforms" and because of Frédéric Mitterrand or Michel Charasse.
Many MPF, DLR or former Pasqua voters will abstain, now that they don't have "their" lists.

Plus, with a Sarkozy, when the elections are won, he is adored. When the elections begin to be lost, he will be hated inside the right and the revenge will translate in the ballot boxes.

(Myself, I'm a mainstream rightist, a "légitimiste" one, we can say; but I'm really fed up and I will hesitate until the end; fortunately, there isn't anything in the center-right or between the UMP and the FN; so, my vote isn't lost for the UMP, but who knows... )

[Umengus]

Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.

IDF of course (the "great paris" lol)

[Hash]

Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)

[Umengus]

Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)

Where is ipsos when we need it.

[Umengus]

Ifop NPDC (yes !)

PS: 27 %
UMP: 20 %
FN: 17 %
EE: 12 %
Front de gauche: 10,5 %

PS: 54 %
UMP: 29 %
FN: 17 %

The result of the FN is the same than in 2004. Good for Marine. The question is to know if FN will do better than UMP. Second question, will Marine do better than her father in Paca?

Considering his last polls, Ifop sees a progression of the FN and PS, a decline of UMP and a bog failur for Modem.

[Hash]

The 2004 runoff results were:

PS 52
UMP 28
FN 20

Not very surprisingly, the FN's decline benefits the PS more than the UMP in a region where FN voters are often working class ex-lefties.

[Math]

Awful results for the UMP in Alsace (but it is CSA, you know)...

Richert (UMP) 33%
Bigot (PS) 19%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 15%
Binder (FN) 12%
Werhling (MoDem) 5%
Santiago (Europe sociale) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 5%
Zimmermann (NPA) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 2%
Stirby (DVD) 1%

Turnout 54%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 46%
Richert (UMP) 42%
Binder (FN) 12%

Bigot (PS) 46%
Richert (UMP) 41%
Binder (FN) 12%

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 53%
Richert (UMP) 47%

Bigot (PS) 55%
Richert (UMP) 45%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2010/opi20100224-intentions-de-vote-en-region-alsace-dans-la-perspective-des-elections-regionales-de-mars-2010.pdf

[Hash]

lulz.

A 26-region full sweep by the left would be funny, very funny indeed. I still hope Fernique can pull ahead of the Bigot in Alsace (sorry, couldn't resist).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

You might have seen that I decided not to care a lot about polls.

I really think abstention will be very high for all reasons I've explained several times and that it could be quite good for UMP and EE. I also think it would be hard to poll EE. And I also think this PS triomphalism is very bad for them, triomphalist polls as well.

And I must also say that the fact that everybody, almost the journalist class as whole, doesn't try to go further than 'POLLS SAY. PERIOD', beyond the fact i find it foolish, and a bit short as an analysis, it leads me to try to look in an other direction, though, I don't do that by principle, I wouldn't if I didn't see some relevance.

We'll see, campaign just began one week ago with the - 2nd but only one which made noise - Soumaré affair. It just begin and remains 2 week of campaign then.

I maintain PS could have big surprises.

[Hash]

You might also have noticed that I don't place absolute trust in polls (as judged by my comments about CSA lol polls), but I do understand that they're not absolutely wrong and they tell, generally well, the current mood (French pollsters being generally quite good, compared to other nations). I also understand the election is not today, and things can change, but it's getting rather late for the UMP to turn things around from where they are today. I predict turnout to be around 50-55%, which is very low for a non-Euro election in France.

CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 30%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 11%
Beaufils (FG) 6%
Fesneau (MoDem) 5%
Megdoud (LO) 4%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

Bonneau (PS) 50%
Novelli (UMP) 38%
Loiseau (FN) 12%

Bonneau (PS) 59%
Novelli (UMP) 41%

59-41 seems way too big, but CSA sucks as rule. Didn't bother to look at crosstabs much.

OpinionWay in Corse (weird that they poll there)
Rocca Serra (UMP) 22%
Simeoni (PNC) 17%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 6%
Baccarelli (AEI) 6%
Cardi (FN) 6%
Talamoni (CL) 6%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (DVD) 1%

Giacobbi-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-CSD) 32%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 29%
Simeoni (PNC) 19%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Talamoni (CL) 8%

Giacobbi-Simeoni-Renucci (PRG-PS-PNC-CSD) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Bucchini (FG) 14%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 12%

Giacobbi-Bucchini-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-FG-CSD) 45%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Simeoni-Talamoni (PNC) 22%

(the threshold here is now 7%, so

[Hash]

CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 31%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 7%
Fesneau (MoDem) 6%
Verdon (PDF) 3.5%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2.5%

Bonneau (PS) 48%
Novelli (UMP) 42%
Loiseau (FN) 10%

Bonneau (PS) 54%
Novelli (UMP) 46%

Much more reasonable runoff numbers than CSA, of course.

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes (change on last Ifop poll)
Royal (PS) 35% (+2)
Bussereau (UMP) 29% (nc)
Coutant (EE) 12.5% (-1.5)
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 8% (+1)
Monier (MoDem) 6% (+1)
Jean (FG) 5.5% (+0.5)
Rossignol (NPA) 3% (-1)
Gaillard (LO) 1% (nc)

Royal (PS) 56% (-1)
Bussereau (UMP) 44% (+1)

OpinionWay in "Pays-de-la-Loire"
Bechu (UMP) 32%
Auxiette (PS) 30%
Magnen (EE) 15%
Gallerneau (MoDem-AEI) 7%
Gicquel (FG-NPA) 6%
Neveux (FN) 6%
Le Beller (LO) 3%
Flippot (PB-NTFB) 1%

Auxiette (PS) 55%
Bechu (UMP) 45%

Well, it's obvious the the sack of crap will win, but 55-45 seems a tad too generous with him. 53-47 seems more like it, to me.

And some extra numbers for the Ifop poll in NPDC:
MoDem 5%
LO 3%
NPA 2.5%
'jeunes agriculteurs' 1.5%
CNI-"Ch'tis list" 1.5%

Hopefully there's some sort of poll in Bretagne soon, mostly for the first round which could be interesting with the 'rural list' and Troadec's list.

[Hash]

There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.

[Hash]

There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.

Apparently those idiots are re-doing it. They've polled Champagne-Ardenne (57-43 for the left in runoff. LOL)

OpinionWay poll nationally (I'm starting to really like OpinionWay given the current stock of pollsters, CSA and Sofres rofl).

UMP 31% (-1)
PS 27% (+1)
Greenies 13% (-1)
FN 9% (nc)
FG 6% (+1)
MoDem 5% (nc)
NPA 3% (+1)
DVG 2% (+1)
LO 1% (nc)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1% (nc)
Others 1% (-1)

[Umengus]

A good poll for UMP but, unfortunatly for this party, it's a sofres poll !

Alsace (03/2-4)

UMP: 41 %
PS: 17 %
EE: 17 %

FN: 9 %
Modem: 4 %


UMP: 55 %
EE- PS (Fernique): 45 %

UMP: 53 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 47 %

UMP: 49 %
EE-PS (Fernique): 42 %
FN: 9 %

UMP: 47 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 44 %
FN: 9 %

The alsace csa poll (02/23-24):

UMP: 33 %
PS: 19 %
EE: 15 %
FN: 12 %

Turnout: 54 %

UMP: 41 %
PS / EE: 46 %
FN: 13 %

UMP: 42 %
EE/PS: 46 %
FN: 12 %

[Umengus]

CSA national (03/02-03)

PS: 31 % (+1)
UMP: 27 % (-2)

EE: 14 % (-1)
FN: 9 % (+1)
FG: 6 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)