French Regionals 2010
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Author Topic: French Regionals 2010  (Read 112705 times)
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #475 on: March 14, 2010, 04:47:40 PM »

My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #476 on: March 14, 2010, 04:49:03 PM »

In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...

Please note "some" in my post.
Leftist voters of the FN and real far-rightists will keep on voting for Binder.
Alsace isn't Ardennes, Nord, Oise, be careful.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #477 on: March 14, 2010, 04:49:21 PM »

Bourgogne: FN, PS, UMP in runoff. EE has 9.84%, barely miss the run-off.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #478 on: March 14, 2010, 04:50:16 PM »

Another village result, this time Solesmes (72, Fillon's stronghold) where Bechu has 58.6%

And, of course, in Melle (79), Sego wins 52.6%.

In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...

FN voters in Alsace are usually far more white rural Protestant folks who don't like 'em blacks and Africans, which makes them more likely to vote UMP (the FN's results in Alsace have gone down a lot since the 2002-2004 heyday).

In the runoffs, the FN vote obviously does not grow much at all. In all regions, they will either gain 1-2% maximum, stabilize or lose 1-3% of their March 14 vote.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #479 on: March 14, 2010, 04:50:43 PM »

My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .
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Hashemite
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« Reply #480 on: March 14, 2010, 04:52:48 PM »

My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

Yes, remember for the PS that after wonderful 2004 came not-so-good 2005 with the division over the EU, Le Mans and in 2006 came the fights between Royal the Maverick and the elephants.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #481 on: March 14, 2010, 04:55:12 PM »

In Darcos' hometown of Périgueux, Rousset is on 36.4% with Darcos trailing with 30.7%.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #482 on: March 14, 2010, 05:04:12 PM »

My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

Yes, remember for the PS that after wonderful 2004 came not-so-good 2005 with the division over the EU, Le Mans and in 2006 came the fights between Royal the Maverick and the elephants.

But there isn't any big event that will be good for the right in the next 3 years...

Reforming the pensions ?
Cutting public spendings ?
Facing a new banlieues revolt ?
Facing agricultural crises ?

So far, so good Wink

And Royal is down now. And DSK is lazy. And Delanoë only aimed at a big post after 2012. And Hollande isn't big enough alone to beat Aubry.
Sad
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #483 on: March 14, 2010, 05:06:30 PM »

If regional elections in France now follow the pattern of local elections in Britain (and I think they do) then there aren't many national implications to be drawn from these results - as much as I'd like to think otherwise, obviously.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #484 on: March 14, 2010, 05:10:09 PM »

If regional elections in France now follow the pattern of local elections in Britain (and I think they do) then there aren't many national implications to be drawn from these results - as much as I'd like to think otherwise, obviously.

Well, for example, if there effectively is a 'grand chelem' of PS next Sunday, that would be important for Aubry, the score of EE is important for them too, it is important for Marine Le Pen too, so yes, maybe they aren't many, there are some, that are undeniable, but not definitive ones to me.
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« Reply #485 on: March 14, 2010, 05:24:32 PM »

Results in my neck of the woods now:

Saint-Malo: PS 33.42, UMP 31.78, EE 13.21, FN 6.58, MODEM 4.47
Bovel: PS 33.54, EE 17.39, UMP 16.77, FN 10.56, rural 6.21, PCF 4.35
Rennes: PS 39.68, UMP 21.1, EE 17.96, PCF 4.83, MODEM 4.75, FN 4.51
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« Reply #486 on: March 14, 2010, 05:28:09 PM »

In Pas-de-Calais as a whole, the FN is ahead of the UMP with 19.8% against 15.9% for the UMP.

The FN is at 39.1% in that sh**thole Henin, against 27.3% for the left and 10.1% for EE.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #487 on: March 14, 2010, 05:29:03 PM »

Yeah... Be wise... Be careful...
Come on, I know that a political momentum nowadays changes in 6 months, of course.

But I also know that the fundamental political landscape is now very bad for the right in France until 2012.
That all those Le Pen voters (from 1984 to 2007, he was never below 10 % !) who were stolen by the UMP in 2007 (presidential and legislative elections) are now even angrier at the right than before as they fell betrayed.

I also know thatthe villepinistes will be very harsh and that Copé and all the other Chirac-Juppé "babies" (Baroin, Pécresse) will objectively gain from a Sarkozy defeat in 2012, just because it will be better to fight an incumbent and ageing Aubry in 2017.

And the big problem is now that France will soon follow Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and... the UK, as there isn't much money left.
The time is now at cutting public spendings, really...
How can Sarkozy prepare for 2012 without money ? By turning to Berlusconi behaviour ?
He may do it, but a large part of the reasonable would revolt. And Fillon, Woerth et alii would probably go.

No, really, it's over.
The only way for Sarkozy to win would have been a divided PS. And I doubt it will be the case.
Sarkozy lost 2012 when Royal conceded defeat after Reims.
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« Reply #488 on: March 14, 2010, 06:35:51 PM »

Clairoix: UMP 28.01, PS 24.45, FN 16.26, GRN 13.25, FG 3.96
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« Reply #489 on: March 14, 2010, 06:49:09 PM »

Orange (84): Ligue 36.6, UMP 18.51, PS 16.67, FN 11.14, GRN 7.73, FG 4.14
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« Reply #490 on: March 14, 2010, 06:53:28 PM »

Alpes-Maritimes (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 32% (29.3%; 35.1%)
PS 22% (30.9%; 10.7%)
FN 16.5% (25%; 11.2%)
EE 15% (17.1%)
FG 5.5% (4.9%)
MoDem 3.5% (6.2%)
Ligue 2.5%
AEI 1% (3.4%; 4.2%)
LO 1% (0.5%)
NPA 1% (2.8%)

UMP 30.93
FN 22.01
PS 20.84
EE 12.59
FG 4.81
MODEM 2.35
AEI 2.32
Ligue 2.09
NPA 1.60
LO 0.45

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UMP 32.97
PS 23.12
FN 20.44
EE 9.69
FG 4.49
AEI 2.51
MODEM 2.34
Ligue 1.95
NPA 1.86
LO 0.62

Poll fail
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Hashemite
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« Reply #491 on: March 14, 2010, 06:55:05 PM »

Grenoble is a fun place: PS 27.6, EE 26.5, UMP 19.4, FN 8.9, FG 8.1, MODEM 4.47
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MaxQue
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« Reply #492 on: March 14, 2010, 07:14:36 PM »

Results are avaliable for each department but Hauts-de-Seine and Val-d'Oise.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #493 on: March 14, 2010, 08:59:33 PM »

And now, all is counted. In all regions, 3 lists or more can be present in the run-off. Sometimes, it is EE, sometimes, FN, sometimes, EE and FN and sometimes PG is added in that. The only exception is Aquitaine, where there is only PS, UMP and MoDem (the only region where they qualify).
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MaxQue
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« Reply #494 on: March 14, 2010, 09:20:09 PM »

Results maps:

General results, Languedoc-Roussillon is Frêche.


PS results


UMP results


EE results


FN results
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PGSable
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« Reply #495 on: March 14, 2010, 11:36:57 PM »
« Edited: March 14, 2010, 11:58:35 PM by PGSable »

The results of the American regions are mostly in.

In Guadeloupe, Victorin Lurel (PS) is re-elected with 56,80%. Blaise Aldo (Majority) has 14,00% and Eric Jalton (DVG) has 12,00%.

In Guyane, Rodolphe Alexandre (Majority) at 40,61% will face Christiane Taubira (PRG–Walwari) at 23,02%.

In Martinique, Serge Letchimy (PPM) leads incumbent president Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM), 40,20 % to 32,30%. André Lesueur (Majority), with 10,50%, also proceeds to the runoff.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #496 on: March 15, 2010, 01:16:47 AM »

What is that strong UMP region in the lower center and why is it so ?

(Sry, just turned in)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #497 on: March 15, 2010, 01:27:00 AM »

What is that strong UMP region in the lower center and why is it so ?

(Sry, just turned in)

That is Cantal department, in Auvergne region. It is a right-wing department and the regional UMP candidate is from Cantal. Hashemite probably knows more about that.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #498 on: March 15, 2010, 01:37:27 AM »
« Edited: March 15, 2010, 01:46:17 AM by Senator MaxQue »

Results by region

Alsace
UMP 34.9
PS 19
EE 15.6
FN 13.5
Alsace d'Abord (far right) 5
Modem 4.4
FG 1.9
NPA 1.6
DVG (some pacifist) 1.6
DVD (running as centre-droit) 1.6
LO 0.9

Aquitaine
PS 37.6
UMP 22.1
Modem 10.4
EE 9.8
FN 8.3
FG 6.0
NPA 2.5
AEI 1.9
LO 0.8
Some basque nationalist 0.7
Another basque nationalist 0.02 (250 votes)

Auvergne
UMP 28.7
PS 28
FG 14.2
EE 10.7
FN 8.4
Modem 4.5
NPA 4.2
LO 1.2

Basse-Normandie
PS 32.6
UMP 27.7
EE 12
Modem 8.9
FN 8.7
FG 5
PDF (Carl Lang and his friends, far right) 3.7
LO 1.5

Bourgogne
PS 36.3
UMP 28.8
FN 12
EE 9.8
FG 4.3
Modem 3.8
AEI 2
LO 1.6
DVG (with a tinpot name: POUR LA BOURGOGNE CITOYENNE "A GAUCHE SUR LES VALEURS DE LA REPUBLIQUE" LISTE D'INITIATIVE CITOYENNE) 1.3

BRETAGNE, BREIZH!
PS 37.2
UMP 23.7
EE 12.2
FN 6.2
Modem 5.4
Nous te ferons Bretagne-Hashemite endorsed 4.3
FG 3.5
Terres de Bretagne 2.6
NPA 2.5
Bretagne Phare du nouveau monde 0.9
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #499 on: March 15, 2010, 01:55:50 AM »

That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Well, I guess you feel like I do for Obama and the USA... Sarko also gave much hope to the french right (but admit that for the moment he has done more things than Obama Tongue).
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