French Regionals 2010

[Hash]

Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...

Junk poll.

[Hash]

IFOP national poll (Nov 19-20)

UMP 27%
PS 21%
Greens 15%
FN 8%
PCF-PG 7%
MoDem 6%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
NC 3%
LO 2%
Others 4%

As of the OpinionWay poll, the national 'rapport de forces' was Left 44, Right 31, EXD 9, Centre 7, EXG 4, ecolo 2 and others 3.

Now, the IFOP poll's 'rapport de forces' is Left 43, Right 30, EXD 8, EXG 6, Centre 6, ecolo 3, others 4.

[Alexander Hamilton]

UMP forever!

[Hash]

Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html

Well, yes, Midi-Pyrénées and Limousin won't be tough battle, sure.

Especially Limousin, yes, this is so sweet there, people are spontaneously pragmatically sweetly leftist there, and rather constructive. That are not some excited, and/or guys that do that in reaction or because they feel they have to follow a line. That's a  kind of spontaneous ambiance there, that's pretty pleasant. Well, except maybe in the Brive's area in which I lived the most time, which has a kind of bourgeois mentality/ambiance, rather rightist, that's the Périgord entry in the Limousin! Not the same ambiance.

[Hash]

Viavoice Rhone-Alpes (Oct 30 - Nov 3: revealed on Dec 3). Rather skeptic of this poll.

UMP 26.5%
Greens 22%
PS 20%
FN 8%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
LO 5%
NPA 3%
NC 0.5%

http://www.lyoncapitale.fr/lyoncapitale/journal/univers/Politique/Regionales-2010/Sondage-Europe-Ecologie-devant-le-PS

Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.

[big bad fab]

There will be many votes wasted for the left in the first round in Brittany, but, well, wouldn't it be an even better candidate for a firs-round win than Limousin ?

We can really ask the question, as there won't be any NC autonomous list () and the bad is already done, with Malgorn Nr.1 in the region AND in Finistère, Le Guen ready to have a "mission d'information parlementaire en Afrique"...., Bruno Joncour able to get a good result for the MoDem, Goulard acting against his own camp in Morbihan and de Legge as an unknown and outside candidate for the UMP in Ille-et-Vilaine...

And, back to Ile-de-France, poor Valérie, her career will be stopped...
With the MoDem "gadget", Duflot very punchy and DLR as a protest vote on the right, she will do bad, very bad... And everybody will be affected, Jouanno, Yade, NKM, J.C. Lagarde. Unless they all agree to make Pécresse responsible for that... (Karoutchi, Santini and Sarkozy will be very happy to do just that !)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.

Each one his analyze, but, one more time, I think names are really less important than parties here, actually. Leaders matters, but not heads of list.

By now, but one more time I think we would see more clear after the new year.

I tend to expect a Green/Pink France on the map.

Though, haven't really tried to put down all elements to make a real analysis yet, but that would be the feeling I have. If abstention on the left and on the right and if a growing FN, then yeah, big Greens. And I think that them taking Paris could be serious, in term of image they beat it all there, IdF's PS is down.

Oh, and, one more beautiful act from Ségolène. She owned Franky. MoDem is already on the way to fail. François, tu t'es fait eu...

[Hash]

Senator Jean-Louis Masson (DVD) might run for DLR in Lorraine. He won 6.7% running as a DVD in 2004, and probably hurt Longuet a bit in the runoff. If he runs for DLR, it'd be a nice media coup for them, at least in the region and they might poll more than 2% there.

Also, departmental top candidates for the major parties have come out. Interesting stuff:
Michel Moyrand (PS Mayor of Perigueux, defeated Darcos in 2008) in Dordogne
Bernard Péré in Lot-et-Garonne and Marie Bové in Gironde for Greenies. Péré is a Bovéist, and Marie is Asterix's daughter.
Alain Lamassoure (UMP) MEP in Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Brice Hortefeux (UMP) in Puy-de-Dôme. More of a symbolic candidacy, like his candidacy in the Euros
Henri de Raincourt (UMP) in Yonne
Marylise Lebranchu (PS) in Finistère
Alain Rafesthain (PS) in Cher, former President of the CR until 2004 and current President of the Cher CG
Jean Germain (PS Mayor of Tours) in Indre-et-Loire
Serge Lepeltier (UMP-Radical) in Cher (defeated candidate in primaries to the nut Novelli)
Philippe Vigier (NC) in Eure-et-Loir
Nicolas Perruchot (NC) in Loir-et-Cher
Catherine Soullie (UMP) MEP in Loiret
Benoist Apparu (UMP) in Marne
Étienne Butzbach (MRC) in Belfort
Anne Hidalgo (PS) in Paris. She's a potential candidate to succeed Delanoe in 2014.
Chantal Jouanno (UMP) in Paris
Yves Jégo (UMP-Radical) in Seine-et-Marne
David Douillet (UMP) in Yvelines (second behind Pécresse)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP) in Essonne
André Santini (NC) in 92
Gérard Longuet (UMP) in Meuse. Defeated President of the CR in 2004
Sylvia Pinel (PRG) in Tarn-et-Garonne
Gérard Trémège (UMP-Radical) in Hautes-Pyrénées
Philippe Augier (NC) in Calvados. He wanted the top candidacy in the region.
Hervé Morin (NC) in Eure (3rd on list, Le Maire is first)
Antoine Chéreau (MPF Mayor of Montaigu) in Vendée
Henri de Richemont (UMP) in Charente. Sidelined ex-top candidate in the region
Hubert Falco (UMP) in Var
Bernard Deflesselles (UMP) in Bouches-du-Rhône
Gaston Franco (UMP) in Alpes-Maritimes
Damien Abad (NC) in Ain (lol)
Nora Berra (UMP) in Rhône

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I thank France Bleu and LH2 to make my point:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2009-12-08/sondage-71-des-francais-ne-connaissent-pas-leur-president-de-region/917/0/402610

It says that spontaneously 71% of French don't know the name of the president of their région.

29% know it then.

34% can find back the name when you tell them several names.

Which means that 63% have a clue about it and 37% no clue.

Also, 63% know the political color of their région. As says the article it has to be put in perspective with the fact that all régions have the same color except 2.

Motive to vote:

45% say they will determine their vote according to the social and economical situation (which I personally understand as the national situation).

Only 25% will take into account the what has done the preceding regional executive.

20% will vote based on what the government does.

What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.

[Umengus]

It would be good to know wich regions Sarkozy won in 2007 and compare with 2010. My opinion is that there will be a big difference...

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: fav: 38 % def: 60 %

Fillon: fav: 43 % def: 48 %

All polls show the +- same result. Sarkozy in deep trouble and loved only by UMP voters. Below 50 % with the rest, FN voters even.

DOn't imagine that fillon is stronger than sarkozy. This guy is just invisible and when he speaks, he loses popularity...

[Hash]

What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.

Well, yeah, but I still think there's a sense of attachment in France to municipalities, departments and regions even if they don't care about local government outside of their mayor. Perhaps it would help if people knew what the regional executive actually did.

The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.

FN voters even.

I don't see why that's surprising. FN voters who voted FN based out of concern over immigration or stuff now vote UMP. Those who still vote FN are clearly opposition voters, and not ideological voters.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.

Well, sure, local issues may remain important but that's the question of this centralized state, people still think centralized, President/Mayor are the figureheads, and lesser are Deputies/Préfets, the départementaux/régionaux executives are something vague, people are not aware of what they do.

That may change step by step, if I'm not a fan of the 'good ol' identities' movements as you know, I actually think that some decentralisation can be good, though I also find some advantages to centralisation, a balance could be found maybe but i haven't spent much time on it personally. Anyways it is surely on its way in this country, but today that's still not predominantly the case. And that s**king reform of régions won't help, may the PS point it well during the campaign.

I also tend to think that with what becomes this highly networked and individualized modern society France could jump over an actual decentralisation, to, something else, but this is an other debate...

I also wonder if that stuff wouldn't become what Umengus said once, a kind of mid-term election, it could have the potential today maybe.

[Umengus]

After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A slight part of the 19% of Bayrou in presidentials could go on FN in the future. On part of his success having been as fab sometimes pointed out, its anti-system posture "the guy about whom no one speak". Since, journalists haven't stopped to speak about him, and there are other anti-system growing like the "new-generation" FN and partly, Greens.

[Math]

IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yep, about IdF, when I see Duflot on TV I believe more and more she can take over there, she is pretty good.

Also, I wonder about Languedoc-Roussillon, since Greens say they wouldn't go with Frêche. Would seem all god for UMP there.

[Hash]

After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.

After the 2007 election, a overwhelming majority of French voters approved of Sarkozy. Your point is rather flawed.

IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php

Almost exactly what I expected. The Greens on 21% is a better level for them, probably a result of increased notoriety for Duflot. The 57-43 runoff figure is pretty correct and to be expected in the current climate.

On the topic of IdF, the Left Front has nominated a high-ranking PCF apparatchik, Pierre Laurent, over the better-known but far more mavericky/independent Patrick Braouezec. That's a rather poor choice, but this poll's 7% for Laurent is rather pleasing for them still.

Also, lol @ Dolium.

Nationally, that poll is a bit weirder:

UMP-NC 30% (-1)
PS 23% (+1)
Greens 14% (-2)
FN 10% (+1)
MoDem 8% (+1)
PCF/PG 4% (-2)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 2% (new)

[Hash]

IdF Ifop poll for the JDD

UMP 34%
PS 23%
Greens 16%
PCF/PG 7%
FN 6.5%
MoDem 5%
NPA 3.5%
DLR 3%
AEI 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Duflot (Greens) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Ifop has been having weird results since the Euros, and these are rather weird and too favourable to the right.

[big bad fab]

Currently, the UMP should be able to keep Alsace but would be unable to win any other region than Champagne-Ardenne, which is a toss-up.
And Corsica would be won by some sort of left majority.

Even in Pays-de-la-Loire, the momentum isn't at all on the right side.

So you might ask why I've written those lines... you're damn right...
Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

[Hash]

Alsace should be held by the right, but without Zeller's centrist appeal and Sarkozy's overall unpopularity... it won't be a slam dunk. Champagne-Ardenne could very well stay on the left.

Corse depends on post-electoral alliances, but the left will win on numbers like in 2004.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

No, unless the Greens withdrew.

[Hash]

In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.

Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

No, unless the Greens withdrew.

Yes, of course. But they're going to be boring for the right in the sense that the UMP is extremely unlikely to perform significantly better than in 2004

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yup, I always thought that because of Greens position on Frêche Languedoc Roussillon could be a safe spot for UMP.

[big bad fab]

In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.

Thanks, Hash, to let me think there is still a hope...

You remember I early referred to this possibility, but I don't believe in it any longer.

Either the FN will make it to the 2nd round (France Jamet, its main candidate, is a "good" one in this region: daughter of Alain Jamet -yep, always nepotism in the FN - she is from a perfect poujadist tradition),
or the UMP will be behind one left list in the second round...

Nationally, Benoît, I don't think there will be a suspense between the PS and the Greens. The Greens will be behind, even in IdF and Rhône-Alpes. It will be a "classical" election of rejection of the incumbent "power", no more.
Boring....