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Author Topic: French Regionals 2010  (Read 48829 times)
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« on: August 31, 2009, 12:20:52 pm »

An early start to the thread...

Regional elections for the regional legislatures of 26 "regions" (22 in France in addition to Martinique, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Guyane) are being held in March 2010 (probably the 21st and 28th, as in 2004), six years after the 2004 elections, a nightmare for the right.

The current electoral system was adopted in 2003 (the same time as the Euros electoral reform) to ensure permanent, stable majority administrations in all regions. The system used is a two-round system, with 10% of votes cast (suffrages exprimés, as opposed to registered voters, or inscrits, used in legislative elections) as a threshold for a spot in the runoff. However, if a list gets over 5% of votes cast, it can "merge" with a qualified list, meaning that the defeated list get spots on the list it merged with. For seats, there is a 5% threshold in the runoff. The winning list in the runoff automatically gets a fourth of the seats as a majority bonus, and the remaining seats are attributed proportionally, first on a region-wide basis and then divided up by 'section' (departments) based on the votes in each 'section'.

...all of this is true for all regions... except Corse - where the threshold for the runoff is 5%.

Quote
Simulation:

In Region X (52 seats) the first round is as follows:

PS 35%
UMP 20%
PCF 11%
FN 10%
UDF 8%
Greens 8%
CPNT 4%
MEI 4%

PS, UMP, PCF, FN are qualified for the runoff. UDF and Greens can merge if they wish.

PCF drops out and merges with the PS, as do the Greens. UDF merges with the UMP.

Runoff:

PS 47%
UMP 30%
FN 23%

PS gets 13 seats automatically. 39 seats are distributed: PS 18, UMP 12, FN 9.

PS 31 seats (59.62%)
UMP 12 seats (23.08%)
FN 9 seats (17.31%)

Prior to 2003, the regionals used a one-round pure PR system based on departments. Lists winning over 5% of the vote won seats in a department etc. That led to winners without majorities, and the strength of the FN led to mass chaos sessions when time came to elect the President of the Region. Some RPR-UDF Presidents were elected with FN support, and, in fact, the creation of DL in 1998 was based around this situation: the UDF condemned the election of right-wing Presidents with FN support while the members who created DL had no problems with that. The 1998 series was one of mass chaos, confusion and fighting, indeed. Some RPR-UDF Presidents elected with FN while they didn't want FN support resigned immediately, sometimes leading to minority PS administrations, RPR-UDF Presidents elected with PS support...

In 2004, in the context of the UMP's (Chirac/Raffarin) massive unpopularity, the left swept 20 of the 22 Metro regions except Alsace and Corse. Even in Corse, the left had a majority, but the warring factions of the left (Giacobbi vs. Zuccarelli) never got along, so the UMP won. In the first round, the UDF had common lists with the UMP in only 6 regions, while the Greens and PCF often had common lists with the PS by the first round. Most UDF lists merged with the UMP, as did Green and PCF lists.

Results:

Alsace: Adrien Zeller (UMP) re-elected
Aquitaine: Alain Rousset (PS) re-elected
Auvergne: Pierre-Joël Bonté (PS) elected Valéry Giscard d'Estaing defeated
Bourgogne: François Patriat (PS) elected Jean-Pierre Soisson defeated
Bretagne: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS) elected Josselin de Rohan defeated
Centre: Michel Sapin (PS) elected
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Paul Bachy (PS) elected Jean-Claude Etienne defeated
Corse: Camille de Rocca Serra (UMP) elected José Rossi (DL) defeated
Franche-Comté: Raymond Forni (PS) elected Jean-François Humbert defeated
Île-de-France: Jean-Paul Huchon (PS) re-elected
Languedoc-Roussillon: Georges Frêche (PS) elected Jacques Blanc defeated
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS) re-elected
Lorraine: Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS) elected Gérard Longuet defeated
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS) re-elected
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Daniel Percheron (PS) re-elected
Basse-Normandie: Philippe Duron (PS) elected René Garrec defeated
Haute-Normandie: Alain Le Vern (PS) re-elected
Pays de la Loire: Jacques Auxiette (PS) elected François Fillon defeated
Picardie: Claude Gewerc (PS) elected Gilles de Robien (UDF) defeated
Poitou-Charentes: Ségolène Royal (PS) elected Élisabeth Morin defeated
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Michel Vauzelle (PS) re-elected
Rhône-Alpes: Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS) elected Anne-Marie Comparini (UDF) defeated
Guadeloupe: Victorin Lurel (PS) elected Lucette Michaux-Chevry defeated
Guyane: Antoine Karam (PSG) re-elected
Martinique: Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM) re-elected
La Réunion: Paul Vergès (PCR) re-elected



So, 2010. The right has decided to keep the electoral system, it seems, despite some talk of changing it back to the 1998 system. In addition, the UMP nominated almost all of its top candidates very early in online primaries, leading to a pretty low-quality field of candidates. This includes Alain Lambert, an uninspiring Senator and a dirty opportunist in Basse-Normandie; Hervé Novelli, who represents a brand of libertarianism and neoliberalism quite unpopular with voters in the Centre; and Roselyne Bachelot, the weirdo Health Minister in 'Pays-de-la-Loire'. The NC has nominated top candidates, as it did prior to the Euros, and they now negotiate places for these candidates with the UMP... unless the NC risks it by going alone in the first round (possibly playing on its newfound message of being the only centre - the MoDem is now, practically, a centre-left party, with de Sarnez playing chummy with Peillon, Hue, Duflot and so forth). The merger threshold is 5%, and the NC is about 2% of the votes alone, but it could (big could) do more than 5% in the Centre, Basse-Normandie, Haute-Normandie and why not Picardie. The MPF will likely support the UMP lists by the first round, as it did in 2004, though I have heard talk that the UMP might actually prefer an independent MPF list in PACA (probably one led by Jacques or Marie-Claude Bompard, the ex-FNs from Orange) to hurt the FN.

However, the PS is definitely on the defensive after being on the offensive in 1992, 1998 and 2004 (1992 was, of course, an epic fail). In addition, the brief rosy days for the old Plural Left in 2004 are quite gone, with the Greenies very much ready to go it alone in all regions (unlike in 2004) plus the PCF and PG wishing the renew the Left Front by running alone in all regions in the first round. The PS will have a hard time forging alliances, since all of its historical allies are growing independent since June, and the PCF-PG has called bullsh**t on Aubry's proposal to forge an alliance with the MoDem, while the MoDem still is cold to an outright alliance with the PS... The MoDem seems to hesitate, again, due to the hard situation it finds itself in. IIRC, Bayrou wishes to unilaterally adopt a 'national policy' vis-a-vis alliances, unlike in the locals where it was more on the cas par cas, meaning that it supported Juppé (UMP) in Bordeaux, Aubry (PS) in Lille, and ended up endorsing at some point Rebsamen (PS) in Dijon, Guérini (PS) in Marseille, Destot (PS) in Grenoble... some local MoDems liked to ally with the UMP (Bordeaux), while in other cases the local leaders liked to work with the PS. And the NPA is also a force to watch, and it also refuses all runoff alliances with the PS.

However, I think the nightmare scenarios for the PS based on the June results are off the point. Firstly, regionals and Euros are different elections and since 2003, the electoral systems are different. Secondly, you have 60% turnout in regionals, while you have 40% turnout in the Euros. Thirdly, voters have voted differently in Euros since they often give massive slaps to parties (PS in 1984, 1994 and 2009; RPR in 1999) and beautiful results by 'maverick parties' often have little tomorrow (Radicals in 1994; RPF-MPF in 1999; even PS in 2004 given that 2005 was a year of division for the PS and 2007 wasn't very nice either). Fourthly, regional elections have 'candidates' that are more well-known and with stronger following than MEPs. Fifthly, I see that the PS is currently morphing into the old RadSoc Party, meaning a party of notables in local administrations, a party of local administrations. Regionals also tend to have less protest voting, especially since 2004.

So, the situation in 2010 is interesting... and I shall post my first predictions later today.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2010, 06:04:01 pm by Getúlio L'Hermine Vargas »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2009, 01:04:24 pm »
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The big question at the moment is whether Frêche will receive PS support to run for re-election in Languedoc-Roussillon (he was expelled from the party after he made racist comments). It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2009, 01:16:59 pm »

The big question at the moment is whether Frêche will receive PS support to run for re-election in Languedoc-Roussillon (he was expelled from the party after he made racist comments).

The Languedoc-Roussillon PS is almost all behind him, only Helene Mandroux (Mayor of Montpellier) is a major holdout, since they're rivals. In addition, I'm pretty sure he has the Herault federation backed up behind him, and that's big. What seems possible, since I think Frêche does not fit the conditions required to gain the PS endorsement, is that his lieutenant, Eric Andrieu may be the PS top candidate if the PS endorses the Frêche faction.

However, the Greens and PCF are staunch opponents of Frêche and the PCF has already threatened to not merge with the PS in the runoff if Frêche is candidate. If the PCF crosses 10%, as it almost did in the Euros, this is important.

Quote
It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2009, 01:46:36 pm »

Alsace: Safe UMP
Aquitaine: Safe PS

Auvergne: Safe PS Valéry Giscard d'Estaing is gone, and the region is a left-leaning one with strong results in Allier, Puy-de-Dome with the right limited to small Cantal and Haute-Loire.
Bourgogne: Tossup The right finds itself in a tough situation here.
Bretagne: Safe PS
Centre: Lean PS Could also be safe, since Novelli sucks.
Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one.
Corse: Tossup This depends on the candidates, especially on the left. Also, watch out for the nationalists.
Franche-Comté: Tossup
Île-de-France: Lean PS
I think the right's digs on the Big Prize could end up like in 2004...
Languedoc-Roussillon: Safe Left The fight is on the left.
Limousin: Safe PS
Lorraine: Tossup Another big right-wing target, and quite winnable.
Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS
The FN makes the runoff here, and Marine Le Pen probably runs here, since it's her new preferred place to carpetbag to.
Basse-Normandie: Tossup
Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
Pays de la Loire: Tossup Auxiette has a good chance at re-election, but the combined right was very strong here in the Euros... but Bachelot sucks.
Picardie: Safe PS The FN makes the runoff here
Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS This region can go screw themselves.
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  Depends on the UMP candidate, Falco might be a good candidate. The FN makes the runoff here
Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS
Guadeloupe: Safe PS
Guyane: No clue
Martinique: No clue

La Réunion: Safe PCR
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2009, 01:55:40 pm »
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What's up with île Bourbon (aka La Reunion)? Why so leftwing?
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2009, 02:09:11 pm »
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Quote
It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.


Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely. I would say it would be even more unlikely if Giacobbi made it into the government, because he seems like he would be the natural candidate of a united left otherwise.
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2009, 02:22:58 pm »

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It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.


Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely. I would say it would be even more unlikely if Giacobbi made it into the government, because he seems like he would be the natural candidate of a united left otherwise.

United Left under Giacobbi? I have serious doubts that his colleague Zuccarelli would accept that, given that he hates him, and I think Zuccarelli is still interested by a run in 2010.

What's up with île Bourbon (aka La Reunion)? Why so leftwing?

Local politics overseas are often very complex and low-coverage affairs, often highly dependent on personalities. Paul Vergès is very popular in Reunion, and the PCR represents an autonomist line quite popular in a department with a staggering unemployment rate and with a very diverse population. Note, on the other hand, that the lack of Paul Vergès means that in the General Council, the PCR is a fourth party and the presidency is held by a moderate UMPer elected with the votes of the PS and PCR.
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2009, 04:18:43 am »
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Here is mine. Slightly different. Not to be contrarian, just because regional modds are always changing. I'll update it from time to time.

Alsace: Safe UMP

Aquitaine: Safe PS
If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Franche-Comté: Tossup Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win.

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...

Limousin: Safe PS

Lorraine: Tossup The right should win on the paper, but is so divided...

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS


Basse-Normandie: Tossup It should be a "lean UMP", but not with Lambert and all the infightings...

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.

Picardie: Safe PS

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists Wink

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Lean UMP (GAIN)  I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.

Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.

Overall:
Right 4
Left 15
Tossup 3

If I have to break the ties, I would say Lorraine to the right and Franche-Comté and Basse-Normandie to the left.... But that's just for the moment and just not to give everything to the left...
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« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2009, 10:27:41 pm »

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Corse will depend a lot on who are the candidates and what base they bring and how they behave in a runoff. However, Corse often goes against national trends in some ways (UMP vote share fell in Corse-du-Sud between 2004 and 2009 Euros, Le Pen's 2007 vote share was close to his 2002 vote share, the left gained two seats in 2002 legislative etc.); so they might be the left-wing's surprise gain. However, the Corsican left makes the PS seem like a fully united party, so...

Quote
Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...

It will be interesting, but I don't think the left vote will be split so evenly as to allow the UMP to run up the middle in the runoff and win. The left wins, and, imo, Frèche wins.
Quote
Limousin: Safe PS

omgdz no wai rly Grin

Quote
Basse-Normandie: Tossup It should be a "lean UMP", but not with Lambert and all the infightings...

There has been talk that the UMP might be amenable to having a NC, like Philippe Augier (former deputy for western Caen) take the top spot of a UMP-NC list... maybe they realize that a scumbag like Lambert is acid to a potential gain.

Augier is much better material than Lambert for a potential victory.

Quote
Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.

I do hope you're right, since I hate Auxiette more than anything else. But Bachelot isn't really an asset for the right here, though... but I don't really think that will hurt the UMP that much in the voting booth...

Quote
Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists Wink

There is talk to dump Henri de Richemont, the UMP's candidate for a more high-profile name like Dominique Bussereau (President of Charente-Maritime CG and Secretary of State for Transports) or even Jean-Pierre Raffarin. de Richemont has low name recognition and he's pretty much a loser anyways. Though maybe it would be nicer to sacrifice a no-name ex-Senator for some place than risk Bussereau or Raffarin.

Quote
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Lean UMP (GAIN)  I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.

Quite a risky call you've made Grin Won't disagree (or agree) until I get more info on this race.

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« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2009, 10:35:24 pm »

Here are the main strategies discussed inside the MoDem:

The extreme-centrist strategy of autonomous lists in the first round, keeping them in the runoff if possible and if not, no fusions.

Autonomous lists in the first round, alliance with the left or ecologists in runoff. Strategy supported by Marielle de Sarnez, and imo, Bayrou himself.

Alliance with the ecologists in the first round and the left in the runoff. Strategy supported by Corinne Lepage.

'Defferre strategy': alliance with the left by the first round in a large anti-Sarko rally. Supported by Jean-François Kahn.

So, nobody supports the idea of 'alliances of differing geography' - aka, a case-by-case alliance like in 2008. Those who did support this have probably been purged by the Politburo and the General Secretary himself.

And if anybody needed proof that the MoDem is a centre-left party. Ancestor of Christian democracy my ass. Poor Lecanuet, Poher, Pfimlin, Schumann...
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« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2009, 04:22:02 pm »
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Well, it's an interesting change from the right-wing "center" that's prevailed throughout the Fifth Republic.
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« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2009, 06:22:57 pm »

Alain Lambert has dropped out after throwing a hissy fit claiming nobody supported him and/or nobody trusted him. The media thinks that this clears the way for the Mayor of Deauville, Philippe Augier (NC).

However, Alain Lambert hates him and blames him for the loss of the region in 2004 (Augier was the top candidate of the UDF list which very reluctantly supported the UMP in the runoff) and said outright "Je ne le soutiendrai jamais". The old fool supports a 'candidate aged 30-45'. Potential candidates who fit that asshole's requirements include these two candidates, which aren't really bigwigs: Joël Bruneau (45, President of the UMP Calvados Fed) and Philippe Gosselin (43, Deputy for the Manche-Saint-Lô constituency). Guénhaël Huet, Deputy for Avranches; said that he wants 'the union of the Presidential Majority around a project with a younger list'. Augier, ftr, is 60 and Lambert is 62.

Also, there's some talk of Bachelot dropping out in PdL®. The young President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council and newly-elected MEP Christophe Béchu is floated as a replacement if she does drop out.
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« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2009, 07:13:43 pm »
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Also, there's some talk of Bachelot dropping out in PdL®. The young President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council and newly-elected MEP Christophe Béchu is floated as a replacement if she does drop out.

Bachelot has openly criticized Sarkozy's policy of having ministers run in elections and resign from government if elected, and said that she felt perfectly capable of serving simultaneously as health minister and president of Pays de la Loire. Béchu, of course, would be a much stronger candidate.

It seems that the NC is determined to run independently in the first round. The current NC list leader in Pays de la Loire is Michel Hunault, member of the National Assembly for northern Loire-Atlantique. However, Morin is courting Jean Arthuis, the president of Mayenne and founder of the new Alliance centriste. Arthuis led the UDF list in 2004.
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2009, 02:39:33 pm »

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Bachelot has openly criticized Sarkozy's policy of having ministers run in elections and resign from government if elected, and said that she felt perfectly capable of serving simultaneously as health minister and president of Pays de la Loire. Béchu, of course, would be a much stronger candidate.

She's a twat, so it isn't really hard to be better than her. And you need to be a twat to criticize Dear Leader openly.

Quote
It seems that the NC is determined to run independently in the first round. The current NC list leader in Pays de la Loire is Michel Hunault, member of the National Assembly for northern Loire-Atlantique. However, Morin is courting Jean Arthuis, the president of Mayenne and founder of the new Alliance centriste. Arthuis led the UDF list in 2004.

Hunault is more like the generic-NC-candidate-who-we-wish-could-get-a-spot-on-the-UMP-list guy and has little name recognition outside of his constituency and surrounding areas (and a lot of these areas happen to be in Region Bretagne anyways). Though if he did run he'd probably sweep his constituency like he did in the 2004 Euros and poll 1% elsewhere.

Arthuis would be a better candidate for them, no doubt.
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« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2009, 05:35:25 am »
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Update and not a good one for the right, with Falco being NOT a candidate... OMG !

Alsace: Safe UMP
no change

Aquitaine: Safe PS If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.
no change

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.
no change

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time and François Sauvadet, from the NC, is a "classic" rural local baron, not really appealing. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...
no change

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.
no change

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.
no change

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !
no change

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.
no change

Franche-Comté: Lean PS Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.
Joyandet is now uncertain to lead the list. Without him, only old and unknown littl barons.
tossup -> lean PS

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win. And with Santini, Karoutchi, Yade, Jouanno all in the Hauts-de-Seine, it will be a harmful mess...
no change

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...
no change

Limousin: Safe PS
no change

Lorraine: Tossup The left is a bit "exhausted" here and the right should win on the paper, but is so divided...
no change

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
no change

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS

no change

Basse-Normandie: Lean PS It should be a "lean UMP", and with Lambert out, it should be again, BUT... Nicole Ameline tries to come back and Lambert has promised to do all what he can to harm Philippe Augier, former MoDem now NC, the last chance for the right...
tossup -> lean PS

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
no change

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.
Now that Bachelot is almost out, if Béchu is candidate, the right is better. The only problem is that, in the Greater West, when the UMP has a problem anywhere, the only answer you've got is: Christophe Béchu... We need many Christophe Béchu...
no change

Picardie: Safe PS
no change

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists Wink
no change

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  I wanted to be a bit more daring on this one. But Falco isn't candidate any longer. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum and the region is really on the right now, but with a dull candidate as Deflesselles or Teissier, it will be harder. Still, Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
lean UMP -> tossup

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.
no change

(Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.)

Overall:
Right 3
Left 17
Tossup 2

« Last Edit: September 21, 2009, 05:38:46 am by big bad fab »Logged

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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2009, 08:39:36 pm »

First poll! (nationwide, bleh)

OpinionWay for LeFigaro.



UMP 32%
PS 19%
Greens 16%
PCF-PG 8%
MoDem 7%
FN 6%
NPA 5%
NC 4%
Others 3%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/oway2.pdf
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/10/02/01002-20091002ARTFIG00004-l-ump-loin-devant-au-premier-tour-les-verts-talonnent-le-ps-.php

If these high numbers hold for the Greenies until March (I'm surprised that they've held since June, as shown in Rambouillet, could the Euros have, for once, started a political trend?), they could finish with pleasing results in March and in places like IdF or Rhone-Alpes the PS could be threatened by the first round. Duflot-Pecresse runoff instead of Huchon-Pecresse!? Wink I think the Greenies could be a serious thing in March for the PS.

Anyways, these numbers don't spell ZOMG UMP LANDSLIDES since the UMP has no reserves except for the NC: the Parliamentary Left has 43% (50% with the MoDem, 55% with the Trots) against 36% for the Majority (42% with the FN). And the article makes a good point of mentioning that the first round is the Socialist problem, the runoff is the UMP problem.

And, yeah, absolutely shocking to see Sarko et al so passionate about 'territorial reform'!
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2009, 04:49:03 am »
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Another poll from CSA (crap pollster, that regularly overrate the PS, and even more the MoDem and the FN), for "La Chaîne Parlementaire":

UMP 31
PS 21
Verts 17
MoDem 8
FN 8
PCF-PG 6
NPA 6
LO 3

Of course, even worse for the right.
But the choices were a bit narrow for the centre-right and the right in this poll...! And CSA is biased.

But, of course, a poll by OpinionWay for Le Figaro can't be viewed as balanced either !

I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2009, 12:00:56 pm »
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The PS held primary elections yesterday. Turnout according to the PS website was at 46%.

In Alsace, the top candidate will be Jacques Bigot, the president of the Strasbourg Urban Community.

In Corse, the top candidate will be Emmanuelle de Gentili, the deputy mayor of Bastia.

The voters nominated Jacques Meyer, a regional vice president and mayor of Reims, in Champagne-Ardenne, where the PS president Jean-Paul Bachy was expelled from the party.

Didier Codorniou won the primary in Languedoc-Roussillon. Codorniou hinted that he would let Georges Frêche, the incumbent president who was also ousted from the party, have the presidency.

Incumbent presidents Jean-Paul Huchon (Ile-de-France), Ségolène Royal (Poitou-Charentes), and Jean-Jack Queyranne (Rhône-Alpe) all defeated their opponents. All of the other PS presidents in the metropole ran unopposed. I couldn’t find any results for the four overseas regions.
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2009, 03:05:40 pm »

I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...

What might be encouraging for the Greenies is that 60% of their voters are voting on "local concerns" over "national concerns". Which isn't the case for the PS, whose voters are by far and large the We Hate Sarko gang (shared with the Left Front).

In Corse, the top candidate will be Emmanuelle de Gentili, the deputy mayor of Bastia.

FTR, if the left wins in Corse, it won't be the Socialists since the PS has very little actual infrastructure on the island. If the left wins, it will be a high-profile LeftRad or DVG.

Quote
The voters nominated Jacques Meyer, a regional vice president and mayor of Reims, in Champagne-Ardenne, where the PS president Jean-Paul Bachy was expelled from the party.

Jacques Meyer is only a regional vice president and maire-adjoint of Reims. So, yay, a nobody again.

Quote
I couldn’t find any results for the four overseas regions.

Only Guadeloupe is worthwhile, and Victorin Lurel will run again. They'll run total nobodies in the other regions who will lose. Except in Guyane, where there's no PS. It's the PSG there.
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2009, 07:04:09 pm »

Jacques Bompard and Philippe de Villiers seem to be heading for an all-out war. While de Villiers is licking Sarkozy's ass, Bompard has shown his opposition to the Viscount's strategy and also to Sarkozy himself. Now, Bompard, a former FN-turned-MPF and Mayor of Orange (Vaucluse), is leading his own list in PACA for the regionals: the Southern League (Ligue du sud, named after Bompard's role model, the Italian Lega Nord). Patrick Louis, the MPF's local boss, quickly said that Bompard was acting independently and that the MPF disapproved of the Southern League. However, Bompard's list has gathered some support on the far-right, like Guy Macary who led the FN's list in the region in 2004 (in the absence of Le Pen).

And in PACA, the right is fighting for a candidate. With its best candidates, Hubert Falco and Renaud Muselier out, the fight is between Guy Teissier and Thierry Mariani. Bernard Deflesselles is also presumed to be in, but he's a minor name. Sarkozy supports Mariani, and Gaudin probably does too. Lionnel Luca and other UMP MPs support Teissier.

And a poll in PACA, a UMP internal:

UMP 31-34%
Michel Vauzelle (PS) 27-29%
Greens 14-16%
FN 12-14%
MoDem 5-6%
Bompard not tested

Vauzelle (PS) would win a runoff with anywhere between 49 and 51%.

Le Figaro.fr has a good overview.
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2009, 02:22:27 pm »
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By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2009, 04:45:55 pm »

By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.

Turnout is quite good in regionals, and worlds better compared to the Euros. You had close to 65% turnout in 2004, though quite lower in 1998 (still above fifty, afaik).
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2009, 01:33:42 pm »
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Bachelot has withdrawn her candidacy. The UMP will announce its new list leader on November 28, but the big name seems to be Béchu (again). With Bachelot out of the running, naturally, Auxiette's chances of winning re-election seem dim.
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2009, 05:38:08 pm »

Bachelot has withdrawn her candidacy. The UMP will announce its new list leader on November 28, but the big name seems to be Béchu (again). With Bachelot out of the running, naturally, Auxiette's chances of winning re-election seem dim.

Béchu wins the nod, and he increases the UMP's odds of winning. I hope the imperalist-colonialist Auxiette dies in a fire.
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« Reply #24 on: October 17, 2009, 10:43:42 am »

The Bloc identitaire, a radical far-right outfit (anti-immigration, agrarian-populist, and ethnonationalist) will organize as a political party and run in future elections. It will probably support Jacques Bompard's Southern League in the regionals in PACA.
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