French Regionals 2010

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

I agree with you, psychologically, the trend is on the right in PACA for me.

And the nationwide trend is turning as I expected (and wished, I really didn't like PS' triomphalism), with a high abstention, and personally I'd say a 50-55% turnout, with this trend continuing, and if Fillon continues to make good speeches like he did to shut the 'National Identity debate', if he stays in the foreground instead of Sarkozy, be prepared to see Blue on the map boys.

I really don't think the FN will be high, their leadership is totally dispersed for the last campaign of the father.

Also, I liked very much how Hollande answered to Chabot's question yesterday:

'Do you believe there will be a PS grand chelem?'

'I did the grand chelem, less 1'

Just what I expected, as answer, and tends to confirm what I tended to think, he's waiting for a defeat of Aubry, which would be good for him. He is on his way boys...

My safe bets:

Limousin: PS
Poitou-Charentes: PS Royal
Midi-Pyrénées: PS

Then, everything is opened!

Go Greens!

Though, well, campaign is coming but hasn't still really begun, you never know, but trends are clearly on the way to change for me.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Oh and, how could have I forgotten it:

Languedoc-Roussilon to the party of Septimanie! Of course!

He has just slapped everyone this week in the media.

If it could be a lesson for this society...

Because while he was serving his old blunt rants and way of speaking to provoke everyone and to own everyone, first the overreaction of the society served him, ans made these kinds of provocations popular, then while not very legitimate that was counter-productive, but overall, meanwhile we had the 1st actually racist remark from the UMP, not the hell of a bloody polemic on that, very few spoken here or there, nothing more.

Mr the UMP mayor of Franconville, Mr Francis Delattre, about Ali Soumaré, PS head of list in Val d'Oise, of Malian origin:

'Surprising this list of PS in the département, led by a Mr Samaré, in a 1st time I had thought it was a player of the second team of PSG'

So, outside of the fact that it seemed hard for him to correctly pronounce this easy name, 'Black = sports', and here second team more of that. Here we go the 1st public actual racist remark from a non-extremist politician.

And, what a random. Who is this Ali Soumaré, this Ali Soumaré comes from a rough district of the Parisian suburb, and nevertheless he comes from there, he speaks very well, he has a very calm and constructive temperament. Plus he really represents people from these rough districts by this behavior, he embodies a guy in which people, and especially men, which is very important, from there could find an echo and think, we can do it, he doesn't appear as the good ole colored guy who has anecdotal behavior and of which the words wouldn't have much impact, and that is something very rare in the French political landscape, that isn't Harlem Désir, that isn't Malek Boutih, that isn't Azouz Begag, that isn't even Alain Dolium, that is something new.

And what a random, what a random that a guy who comes from there, with different ethnic origins, and, for once, has the potential to have an actual impact in the French political landscape is given the 1st public actual racist comment.

Make up your mind bloody society, while you scream at Frêche for peanuts, you let racism goes...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).

Well, let's see, generally speaking I'd care more about polls a few days before the election. Thanks for your data though. And if trend is effectively changing, it could benefit to the right too. It remains more than one month, that's too much to make definitive talks today anyways, we can just try to see trends.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February 8) about Segogo.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February about Segogo.

Oh ok, well they can make better when they are not lazy.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Some better humor , and also interesting:

http://chevallierorange.wordpress.com/

Haven't read the 2 last ones, just the ones on Chamakh and Grébert. Though here too, that's easy to make fun of MoDem nowadays, but well, seems it's rather legitimate.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

TNS-Sofres/Logica poll in PACA, which makes more sense

Vauzelle (PS) 30%
Mariani (UMP) 29%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Vichnievsky (Greens) 13%
Coppola (FG) 4%
Miran (AEI) 3%
Levraud (MoDem) 2%
Bompard (LDS) 2%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Godard (NPA) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 49%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 14%

Vauzelle (PS) 53%
Mariani (UMP) 47%

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes



Royal (PS) 34%
Bussereau (UMP) 29%
Coutant (EE) 15%
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 7%
Monier (MoDem-AEI) 5%
Jean (FG) 5%
Gaillard (LO) 3%
Verdin (DLR) 1%
Rossignol (NPA) 1%

Royal (PS) 58%
Bussereau (UMP) 42%

CSA (national)

UMP 33%
PS 27%
EE 13%
FN 8%
MoDem 5%
FG 4% (lol)
AEI 3%
NPA 3%
LO 2%
DVD 1%

CSA - IdF

UMP 34%
PS 26%
EE 15%
FN 6%
MoDem 5%
FG 5%

None of the others mentioned on LeMonde.fr

PS 57%
UMP 43%

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

By now, I'd say all regions with possible leaning toward UMP go to UMP, so Centre, Basse-Normandie, Franche-Comté, Champagne-Ardenne.

And I also say PACA to UMP, with maybe a growing of Ligue du Sud.

I say a slap for FN, Le Pen tries a come-back and he makes big errors, like saying he could finally run in 2012, or a new antisemite provocation, her daughter won't help him much in this campaign, would certainly let him being a jerk, in order he loses, plus it's really no more his generation.

I think PS will make a bad campaign, and Greens have a real possibility to make a good campaign, UMP really can do it too with a kind of Good cop, François Fillon reassuring the traditional right, and Bad cop, Lefevbre taking voices on the right of the right, someone like Morano can help as well.

For the rest I don't know enough electoral demographics to say if more could go, but I really think UMP will grow, insecurity is really more and more back in the media.

And, go Greens! Duflot is better and better, I think they can do something as well.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

Novelli can't win.

[Math]

OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...

It's actually from Le Figaro. It isn't a surprise that the joke which mascarades itself as the French media has no clue about history or geography.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics...
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

BREAKING NEWS !
Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics...
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.

Oh, dear, not the LaRouchites. That thing is a real disease.

This obviously calls for a FLB list!

[big bad fab]

And please note this is the sole region where they are putting forward lists !

There is also lists named "Terres de Bretagne", full of peasants.
The Télégramme de Brest says this is the agro-industry lobby.

I'm not so sure. Maybe a hidden way for the right to gather people that could not vote at all, go to the MoDem or, very marginally, to the FN.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, a Vincent Méhaignerie (35 years old) is on it. Don't know anything about him.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll

UMP: 29,5 (+2,5)
PS: 29 (+2)
Europe ecologie: 11 (-2)
FN: 9 (+0,5)

Front de gauche: 6,5 (+1,5)
Modem: 5 (-1,5)
NPA: 2,5 (-0,5)
NPA/front de gauche: 0,5 (-0,5)
LO: 2 (-1)
Alliance ecologiste indépendante: 2

The decline of the greens is interessant to observe. Probably due to the fact that turnout will be way better than european elections (and that they are completely insane...). The same thing for FN but in opposite direction.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

National polls are useless and only provide entertainment. For the umpteenth time.

A OpinionWay poll in Languedoc-Roussillon
DVG 31
UMP 22
EE 12
FG 11
FN 7
PS 6
AEI 6
DVD 2
LO 1
EXD (Ligue du Midi + JC Martinez) 2

DVG 41
UMP 32
EE-FG-PS 27

Awful results for the UMP, which is unable to benefit from the weird situation here. I will laugh if the UMP falls third in a runoff.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.

[big bad fab]

TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.

It's even boring in Languedoc-Roussillon now...
And we can't even expect fights for the presidencies after the polls.

But, at least, there may be a positive result: killing the MoDem.
I hope so, but I'm not so sure.
And I hope Aubry won't be seen as the only winner of all this.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Boys, you still in believe in the PS raz-de-marrée...

Also, all polls are useless by now, still no campaign on screens, actually.

Outside of the fact that I'm more and more distrustful of polls, seeing how political analysts are relevant I don't know why would I care of pollsters cooking secrets...

And if you get interest to polls, I think national ones are as much worth of interest as regional ones, the only ones who know a bit about their regions are olds, mostly those who vote, ok, but, first that's not all olds, and second the other part of the electorate which remains significant, seems not to have a lot of clue about it, and would vote first for a national party.

Interesting how Châtel expressed himself with more and more force and convictions about what's going on in high-schools lately.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

New OpinionWay poll nationally

UMP 32% (+2)
PS 26% (-1)
Greens 14% (+4)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 5% (-1)
FG 5% (-1)
AEI 2% (nc)
NPA 2% (-2)
LO 1% (nc)
DVG 1% (nc)
DVD 1% (-2)
Others 2% (+2)

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

For a fun exercise, here are my endorsements by region now that lists have closed:

Alsace: Jacques Fernique (EE)
Aquitaine: Jean Tellechea (EAJ-PNV); runoff: Alain Rousset (PS)
Auvergne: No endorsement; runoff: René Souchon (PS)
Bourgogne: François Sauvadet (NC-UMP)
Bretagne: Christian Troadec (PB-NTFB); runoff: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS)
Centre: No endorsement; runoff: François Bonneau (PS)
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Luc Warsmann (UMP)
Corse: Simeoni-Angelini (PNC)
Franche-Comté: Alain Fousseret (EE)
Île-de-France: Valérie Pécresse (UMP)
Languedoc-Roussillon: Raymond Couderc (UMP)
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS)
Lorraine: Laurent Hénart (UMP)
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS)
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Valérie Létard (NC-UMP)
Basse-Normandie: Laurent Beauvais (PS)
Haute-Normandie: Bruno Le Maire (UMP)
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)
Picardie: Caroline Cayeux (UMP)
Poitou-Charentes: Dominique Bussereau (UMP)
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Laurence Vichnievsky (EE)
Rhône-Alpes: No endorsement

9 UMP, 4 Greens, 3 PS (+4 in runoffs), 3 regionalists, 3 no endorsements.