French Regionals 2010

[Hashemite]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

[Senator MaxQue]

Isn't the strike at France Télévisions will cancel the electoral coverage?

[Hashemite]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

[Hashemite]

A rather old Ifop poll for only Alpes-Maritimes and the Var:

Alpes-Maritimes (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 32% (29.3%; 35.1%)
PS 22% (30.9%; 10.7%)
FN 16.5% (25%; 11.2%)
EE 15% (17.1%)
FG 5.5% (4.9%)
MoDem 3.5% (6.2%)
Ligue 2.5%
AEI 1% (3.4%; 4.2%)
LO 1% (0.5%)
NPA 1% (2.8%)

Var (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 39% (28.5%; 34.5%)
PS 19% (30.1%; 12.4%)
FN 13% (24.1%; 10.7%)
EE 12.5% (14.6%)
FG 7.5% (5.1%)
MoDem 2.5% (6.1%)
Ligue 1.5%
AEI 2% (3.3%; 4.2%)
NPA 2% (3.6%)
LO 1% (0.7%)

Falco (UMP top candidate in Var) gives the local list a big boost: if he had been candidate, this would have been a tossup region

[Umengus]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

Belgium and swiss press internet websites will give results before french equivalent.

[Hashemite]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

Belgium and swiss press internet websites will give results before french equivalent.

We know.

[Hashemite]

t/o at 12:00: 16.07% (+1.2% on 2009, -2.4% on 2004)

[Hashemite]

Fun infographic flashy thingee: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/regionales-2010/region-par-region.php

[Sibboleth]

Ah, so this is today. Excellent

[Hashemite]

t/o at 17:00: 39.29% (+6% on 2009, -10% on 2004).

I estimate turnout at 50-53%.

[PGSable]

Now that the polls are closed in most of the country, turnout is estimated at 47,5%.

[Umengus]

Régionales : UMP et PS seraient au au coude à coude
Selon deux sondages "sortie des urnes", l'UMP et le PS seraient au coude à coude pour ce premier tour des élections régionales.

Le premier sondage IPSOS annonce l'UMP et le PS entre 27,5 et 29 ,5 %, Europe Ecologie entre 11 et 13 %, le Front national entre 9 et 10 % et le Front de gauche à 6,5 %.

Les second sondage CSA, annonce l'UMP et le PS aux alentours de 30 %, Europe Ecologie entre 13 et 15 % et le Front national à 11 %

source: bienpublic.com

No surprise, except EE, lower than predicted.

[Harry Hayfield]

TV5 Monde will be broadcasting a special programme that starts at 1850 GMT (1950 CET / 1450 EDT / 1150 PDT) which lasts for a little over 90 minutes.

[Hashemite]

lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

[Umengus]

"L'ambiance est un peu morose chez les militants d'Europe Écologie qui s'attendent un un score certes honorable mais plus proche des 10 à 12%.

Ils espèrent que le Modem soient autour de 4% ce qui ne permettrait pas à la formation de François Bayrou de fusionner plusieurs régions.

Le Front de Gauche peut lui espérer faire 6,5%. PS et UMP peuvent être ex-aequo à 28% environ.

Quant au FN, il pourrait se maintenir dans huit à dix régions en réalisant 9% de moyenne nationale.  "

source: www.lesindiscrets.com

[Umengus]

lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...

[Umengus]

Les résultats du premier tour du scrutin des régionales françaises ne seront publiés qu'à partir de 20h en France. Cependant, nous disposons déjà de premières estimations. Le PS et l'UMP feraient jeu égal à ce stade.

Le parti de Nicolas Sarkozy, l'UMP et le PS de Martine Aubry feraient jeu égal au premier tour des élections régionales, selon les premiers sondages réalisés à la sortie des urnes. Les deux formations obtiendraient respectivement 29% et 28% des voix. Un résultat a priori défavorable à la droite en vue des deuxièmes tours. La gauche a, en effet, à première vue plus de possibilités de reports de voix.

Les écologistes seraient troisièmes avec entre 11 et 13% des voix, suivis du Front national (8,5 à 10,5%).

Le Front de gauche et le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot, soit l'extrême gauche, feraient eux entre 9,5 et 10%.

Le MoDem de François Bayrou serait autour des 4,5% des voix.

Un faible taux de participation

Le taux de participation au premier tour des élections régionales de 2004 s'élevait vers 17h00 en métropole à 49,66%. Ce dimanche, il est seulement de 39,66%.

Dans la grande majorité des communes, les bureaux ont fermé à 18h00. Dans les grandes villes, ils pourront rester ouverts jusqu'à 19h00 ou 20h00 (Paris, Marseille, Toulouse, Lyon, Strasbourg, Nantes et Ile-de-France).

source: rtbf

[PGSable]

Turnout at 17:00:
Languedoc-Roussillon: 40,77% (–13% on 2004)
Bretagne: –12% in Côtes-d’Armor
Aquitaine: 42% (–10%)

[Hashemite]

lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...

Yes, but your point being? CSA is still a sh**tty poster.

OK, we got the point. You don't need to repost the same numbers five times.

[PGSable]

Turnout in Ile-de-France is three out of ten so far (with the polls still open). Turnout is down 14% in Champagne-Ardenne, down 13% in Picardie, and down 12% in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. Corse is the only region with turnout over 50%.

[Hashemite]

Corse is the only region with turnout over 50%.

(lol). Corse's turnout patterns and turnout differentials have always been very amusing.

[Umengus]

lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...

Yes, but your point being? CSA is still a sh**tty poster.

OK, we got the point. You don't need to repost the same numbers five times.

different sources give the same thing, sometimes with a new info. It's my point.

Selon une estimation de TNS-Sofres, diffusée dimanche à 17h50, l'abstention a atteint le niveau record de 52,50%. Un chiffre proche de l'estimation d'Opinionway (52%) publiée à 18h10.

[Hashemite]

Turnout reports: http://twitter.com/Place_Beauvau

[Hashemite]

Roumegas and Freche voted in the same place at the same time. Lol.