French Regionals 2010

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.

Know it, but I see Lagarde as one of the most decent politician we have, so...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, I tend to think regional elections are really a kind of bastard (hybrid) stuff, they are still quite new, and haven't really found their place and their identity by today, and anyways they will be made upside down if when the territorial reform will pass.

What I mean is that i tend to think that people here first vote for a party, second for a list of people/head of list, to decide their vote i mean. So, the political context of each party would matter more than who or who is candidate here or there, which still counts ultimately.

Other than that, i think the biggest unknown is the FN, if the father rules the campaign it won't make a lot of change, but if the daughter rules, as a plain chief, that would be a bit different.

Speaking about FN in general, when the daughter will be the real new chief, it will be an actual second blow for the FN, she will wipe out all the obscure guys of the FN passioned by the darknesses of History, just keeping a few that will remain nice with her (if there are some), and mainly surround herself with young smiling populists, Steve Briois style.

I'm following her in media recently, that's quite interesting. She will really wipe out all the former darkness of FN, and make a new rightist populist up that she sums up by: 'mondialistes' (globalist, all the mainstream political class) vs. 'nationaux' (nationals, them) (seems she pays attention not to say 'nationalistes'), that simple, the message is clear and sexy. And the way she speaks can really touch people, she really use a popular rhetoric and popular arguments, that you can often hear in mouths of people, and she makes things quite clear about racism. Plus, she really is pretty good in debates, all of this really uses to destabilize journalists and people who face her, they still try to take her through the father prism, fails.

Concretely I don't think she can electorally earn a lot, i think what she can say can touch people but not enough to give FN some big responsibilities (though, something better than before for them I think), but I think she can actually feed the debate, and become something electorally important for the mainstream right, something to deal with...

The French political shaker who began in 2007 hasn't finished to shake...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.

The more they make unique lists in the first run, the more it weaken them i think. Thinking that abstention could play an actual role in our context, it's better to have several voices on one wing than only one in order to make people come on your wing (by wing i mean right or left).

These elections are really a big interrogation mark for me by today. Everything depending of first, abstention, second, Greens. MoDem could be crushed, but anyways, MoDem Bayrou doesn't care of it since it's only a man for an election...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Here only the UMP will express itself for its wing, Hunters, Fans of the clown, and NC have been already eaten. Less voices will campaign, mainly one point of view will be expressed, then appealing less people to vote. The UMP is already playing as if it was a second run, that may be not very smart.

For abstention, what's going on here is clearly seen as rather pathetic in the whole political class, and the resentment step by step becoming some resignation about this bad show, and about the global social situation. Abstention could be pretty high, and on the UMP side too, that's also why the interrogation mark.

The interrogation mark also for Greens then. Still because we don't know the different aspects of this possibly high abstention.

And, no matter if they come out first or not here or there, they will play the coalition in the 2nd run, in short this is PS-Greens against UMP alone, they are not in this attitude of we will eat the left, they are ambitious but remain ready to be pragmatic to make win the left i think.

They are sexy, especially in IdF, but remain some kids, which is not necessarily appealing too. Once again, if the context stay normal, abstention could be high, and maybe not the same abstention as during the euros...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.

Well, that's my main point, the aspects of the abstention, which yes, according to what happened for the right this autumn could be different than during the euros. Then, yes, more than 50% wold be a big surprise and i hadn't that in mind personally, 55% (of turnout) can be enough for me to speak about an high abstention, and as far as today i wouldn't find such a figure ridiculous.

Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...

Ah? As I said it wouldn't surprise me anyways.

Then, on the global aspect of this election, actually what you say works pretty much for municipals, if it was about municipals i wouldn't speak that much of abstention. Regionals are still seen, imo, as a kind of "more close than euros elections". Stuffs are still decided in Paris, and, frankly most people don't give a s**t to how it globally work between régions and départements. France is a country of: Président-Députés-Préfets-Maires, the rest is, vague...

Though, yes, the importance of régions are growing but still it remains very vague, plus the territorial reform won't help to remove this sentiment.

Something that to me, in a global context of resentment/resignation/misunderstanding, recently pushed by people to which French are attached, mayors (congress of mayors) would contribute not to make grow the turn out.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.

Well, if we come with the turnout expressed in the polls which joins the number i had given (about 55%) it will be a sanction vote for the whole political class.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.

Oh, so his momentum is beginning now, seems "A vous de juger" would have made him on. Well, as i said in FGD, outside of the fact he is black, he doesn't seem bad, but not exceptional at all, less good than Harry Roselmack. Though, we can't reproach him to be black now, we can reproach to the media to turn kinda craze (well, gently craze, it is not upside down) because he's black though, yes.

Anyways, seems that IdF (Paris then) gets all the focus of these regionals...haha...C'est la France...!

Oh, and, Fabien, you still believe in a come back of DSK?? sweet naïveté.....

You're right by saying that one of things that helped to unify our right is the 'election winner', but it's not enough for me to be contested, he still holds it, though less and less and no more to appear as the strong stuff it could appear as before.

Oh, and, Cohn Bendit to run is to forget too........

As I said the biggest internal fight, well, as all what i say here imo, will be Franky vs. Ségolène in the primaries, and in this one yes, there will be blood.

Personally I keep thinking the card of international affairs could have a lot of importance for Sarkozy. He clearly knows he earned an ascendant on Obama in the last UN congress, he can really play on that board.

And if ever Sarkozy is no more seen as the chief, then the UMP will be doomed, and for a long time.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I'm still always surprised that you keep speaking of Borloo, that guy hasn't a chance of being a leader of something big, well imo.

Anyways, remains 3, you cited all of them: Villepin, Copé, Barouin.

Copé, well, too weak, he can't create a leadership, he's just a wonderful speaker, doesn't go further.

Barouin, eh, he can be strong, ha always had distance with sarkozy, he appears has someone who wonders before speaking, he's calm, he could create some leadership. But he will seriously has to remove from his face this: "i will suicide myself tomorrow". Well, to me he seems disillusioned, and that's weaken him and personally i don't really see him coming back within the years that come. Plus, he's part ol' reasonable politicians, he is not enough excited/egomaniac for today's politics.

Villepin, the only one that could do something i think, but, if ever, i don't think it would go very very far, if ever he succeeds in something, he wouldn't make a lot of success i think.

Nah, your camp is doomed, it's Sarkozy or nothing. . And as I keep saying I think sarkozy has still cards.

People are entertaining themselves polls about trendy guys like DSK, but step by step we will enter in the real primaries, and the fights will actually begin, and Franky will be on here. Well, and for the right, couldn't be bad, this fight of Franky against Ségolène could divert the media attention from the right.

I'm not able to analyze an election in terms of regional borders, i just know the mainlines about it, i can just analyze it in terms of national trends, and as i said i think it can be relevant since people don't really have a clue of these régionales/départementales institutions and then vote mainly for a party than for a figurehead, except maybe in IdF, which is the spot of the main figureheads globally.

In terms of national trends as far as today i'd say:

- Yes, an FN a bit growing, but not necessarily very big, they are still in transition.
- Greens, yes, can be big, but mainly because of abstention i think, and personally i think that they are no more that much on the left the Voynet/Lipietz/Mamerre period is out now, it is Cohn Bendit Bros/Duflot (and this shift is good!!), they are far more pragmatic, and they are on the Modem ground, clearly.
- Only chance of Modem is to be close of Greens
- Mainstream right will suffer but there could abstention from the PS too, so, on the national scale that may be not so bad.
- PS is bad and bad and bad, as said above they could provoke a lot of abstention on their wing.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.

Well, during Euros, people can vote for such a guy by adhesion. In this election I don't see it being possible. What you say about is interesting to be said, but if we talk about foreseeing about him, I wouldn't be surprised if he did less than Euros, for the reasons i already mentioned.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html

Well, yes, Midi-Pyrénées and Limousin won't be tough battle, sure.

Especially Limousin, yes, this is so sweet there, people are spontaneously pragmatically sweetly leftist there, and rather constructive. That are not some excited, and/or guys that do that in reaction or because they feel they have to follow a line. That's a  kind of spontaneous ambiance there, that's pretty pleasant. Well, except maybe in the Brive's area in which I lived the most time, which has a kind of bourgeois mentality/ambiance, rather rightist, that's the Périgord entry in the Limousin! Not the same ambiance.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.

Each one his analyze, but, one more time, I think names are really less important than parties here, actually. Leaders matters, but not heads of list.

By now, but one more time I think we would see more clear after the new year.

I tend to expect a Green/Pink France on the map.

Though, haven't really tried to put down all elements to make a real analysis yet, but that would be the feeling I have. If abstention on the left and on the right and if a growing FN, then yeah, big Greens. And I think that them taking Paris could be serious, in term of image they beat it all there, IdF's PS is down.

Oh, and, one more beautiful act from Ségolène. She owned Franky. MoDem is already on the way to fail. François, tu t'es fait eu...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I thank France Bleu and LH2 to make my point:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2009-12-08/sondage-71-des-francais-ne-connaissent-pas-leur-president-de-region/917/0/402610

It says that spontaneously 71% of French don't know the name of the president of their région.

29% know it then.

34% can find back the name when you tell them several names.

Which means that 63% have a clue about it and 37% no clue.

Also, 63% know the political color of their région. As says the article it has to be put in perspective with the fact that all régions have the same color except 2.

Motive to vote:

45% say they will determine their vote according to the social and economical situation (which I personally understand as the national situation).

Only 25% will take into account the what has done the preceding regional executive.

20% will vote based on what the government does.

What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.

Well, sure, local issues may remain important but that's the question of this centralized state, people still think centralized, President/Mayor are the figureheads, and lesser are Deputies/Préfets, the départementaux/régionaux executives are something vague, people are not aware of what they do.

That may change step by step, if I'm not a fan of the 'good ol' identities' movements as you know, I actually think that some decentralisation can be good, though I also find some advantages to centralisation, a balance could be found maybe but i haven't spent much time on it personally. Anyways it is surely on its way in this country, but today that's still not predominantly the case. And that s**king reform of régions won't help, may the PS point it well during the campaign.

I also tend to think that with what becomes this highly networked and individualized modern society France could jump over an actual decentralisation, to, something else, but this is an other debate...

I also wonder if that stuff wouldn't become what Umengus said once, a kind of mid-term election, it could have the potential today maybe.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A slight part of the 19% of Bayrou in presidentials could go on FN in the future. On part of his success having been as fab sometimes pointed out, its anti-system posture "the guy about whom no one speak". Since, journalists haven't stopped to speak about him, and there are other anti-system growing like the "new-generation" FN and partly, Greens.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yep, about IdF, when I see Duflot on TV I believe more and more she can take over there, she is pretty good.

Also, I wonder about Languedoc-Roussillon, since Greens say they wouldn't go with Frêche. Would seem all god for UMP there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

No, unless the Greens withdrew.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yup, I always thought that because of Greens position on Frêche Languedoc Roussillon could be a safe spot for UMP.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.

...oh, Pécresse has a better chance against nobody, just because she is Pécresse, and I disagree about Huchon and Duflot, she's neither ideological nor aggressive, and that's why she has chances and that she is good, for their sake Greens became Europe Ecologie. Huchon has the image of an old boring laissez-faire guy, and as I said, Dray is around.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, no, they just have ideas and ambition for their idea, they have energy too and they are constructive, while the other ones all try to become Greens just in order to be trendy. Actually, this impression of energy shouldn't be seen as arrogance just because all the other ones are down and jealous of the dynamic there is around them. Now, I'm not saying they are perfect, I've always said they remain kids, of the sort of the young teens that now they experience puberty they feel everything is opened to them and that they need nobody now and that they can change the world. There is a bit of that in them, yes, but not only, they remain constructive and lucid, the talks they keep concerning what could happen after the 1st round show it, they very much know that the PS is still here and that they will have to deal with it in the future.

But, they are ambitious for their ideas, and something we can't reproach to them is the sincerity of theirs (unlike the old Les Verts) so they wanna try to see what they can do at best alone in a national election and this in order to have some weight in the Left in the future, I see it as plain legitimate and logical.

I see 2 dangers for EE.

1st, before the regionals. The challenge they have to take up is 'décroissance', I consider they are more interesting and constructive than this concept that the PS and UMP throw them in their face, but that's the main, and quite the only one that they found until now against them, they have to succeed to counter this argument, I think they can.

2nd, after regionals. If they effectively make a big score in regionals, they could lose the head, and become really insolent, what would harm them. But I think some guys like Cohn Bendit bros could help them to warn them on this, plus Duflot seems aware of such dangers too.

Actually there is some potential there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

You're generous. The guy seems totally disillusioned.

Also, interesting the beginning of EE's campaign, they quite changed of tone, you can see that they take the measure of the new scale of this campaign, now they play an actual national campaign, seems they figured it out.

I think a way for them to grow could also be what they did during the euros, focusing on the stakes of the election. I mean if PS and UMP fight on national issues, they could come saying that them, they focus on the regional ones, and a big part of regional stakes being transport and studies, that can be good for them. Campaign hasn't really begun in the media though, so we can't really see rapports de force.

That could be amusing if they turn this election like this: national speeches on regional stakes. France's decentralisation.

Anyways, one more time, I think one of their best ally would be abstention.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année

What I say since the euro. What is rather pathetic it is that it remains an actual debate in PS 'should we go with MoDem??', as if it was an important question, and it makes a lot fights, I could have seen on a PS forum recently. Maybe they need this election to wake up and figure out that this an empty political space, may Bayrou also figure out that while he waits for presidency, the world doesn't wait for him.