French Regionals 2010

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NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

did not express: 30 %
turnout: 56 %

Not good for Sarkozy but Presidential election is very diiferent than regional election. Even a big ump loss, sarkozy will stay the favorite in 2012.

In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.

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Rhone Alpes (Opinion way)

LO: 2 %
NPA: 3 %
Front de gauche: 5%

PS: 24 %
green: 16 %

Modem: 8%

Alliance Ecologie indépendante: 4%

UMP: 28 %

FN: 10 %

did not express: 23 %

second tour:

PS: 49 %
UMP: 39
FN: 12 %

or

PS: 58 %
UMP: 42 %
FN: 12 %
turnout: 56%

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Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...

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It would be good to know wich regions Sarkozy won in 2007 and compare with 2010. My opinion is that there will be a big difference...

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: fav: 38 % def: 60 %

Fillon: fav: 43 % def: 48 %

All polls show the +- same result. Sarkozy in deep trouble and loved only by UMP voters. Below 50 % with the rest, FN voters even.

DOn't imagine that fillon is stronger than sarkozy. This guy is just invisible and when he speaks, he loses popularity...

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After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.

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Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.


For the rest, medias speak about the (real or not) come back of the fn again and again. Their result in paca, NPDC, Picardy, Champagne,... and Corsica and Alsace will be interessant.  I bet on a solid come back. Just my 2 cents...

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ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.

100 % agree. Arrogant is the good word.

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internet Ifop poll - ile de france

UMP: 32 -2
PS: 24 +1
Verts-europe ecologie: 17 +1

FN: 8 +1,5
Parti de gauche: 6
NPA: 4
Modem: 5

Debout la République: 2,5
Aliiance écolo indépendante: 1,5

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Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

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Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.

yes ifop is poor. 8,5 % is not so low. Interesting to see the small (durable ?) fall of the greens. But PS has today the problem of George Freche scandal and will do probably a list against him and will "lose" the region.

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If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Concerning Bayrou, the sink is based on the sofres poll. Others polls give 8 at 10 %. Unfortunatly for Bayrou, the narrative today is that his campaign is in very bad shape.

For now, an UMP great defeat is for me an evidence. But there are still lots of unknows and the scores of PS, green and modem are very changing.   

But even an UMP crash, Sarkozy stays the front runner for 2012.

CSA poll

Scenario 1

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 6%
Buffet: 3 %

Aubry: 19 %
Duflot: 8 %

Bayrou: 12 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 32 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 (very weak compared to 2007)

Sarkozy: 52 %
Aubry: 48 %

Scenario 2

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 7%
Buffet: 3 %

Strauss-Kahn: 22 %
Duflot: 9%

Bayrou: 10 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 29 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 %

Sarkozy: 48 %
DSK: 52 %

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Ile de france - sofres

UMP: 32%
PS: 22%
Greens: 17%

NPA: 6%
PCF: 6 %
FN: 4,5%
Modem: 3 %

Languedoc - Opinion Way

Freche: 24 %
UMP: 23 %

Greens: 12 %
PS (Mandroux): 11 %
FN: 11 %
PDG-PCF: 9 %
Patrick Devret: 8 %

Second turn:

Freche: 34 %
UMP: 32 %
left(PS, greens,...): 30 %

IF at the first turn, GREEN and PS are allied, they would score 19 % et Freche 26 %

There are still lots of unknows in this region but it's clear that PS will lose. It will be interessant to see if PS will support to beat Freche... (like RPR supported PS to beat FN...)

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.

NPA yes but Besancenot is more popular. He scores (in polls) at 6-8 %. And medias are friendly with him. But the last days (pro-islamic stance) were not good for him.

A very astonishing poll (Opinion way)

Paca (comparaison with the 10/29 poll)

UMP: 30 % (+6)
PS: 24 % (-7)
FN (Le Pen): 15 % (+3)
Green 13 % (=)

Front de gauche: 6%
Alliance ecolo indépendante: 4 %
Modem= 3 % (!)

Second turn:

PS: 44 % (-6)
UMP: 41 % (+4)
FN: 15 % (+2)

 

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Poitou- charentes

PS (Royal): 32 %
UMP (Bussereau): 29 %
Green: 14 %
FN: 7 %
Modem: 5 %
Front de gauche- PSF: 5 %
NPA: 4 %

Second turn:

Royal: 57 % (55% in 2004)
Bussereau: 43 %

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Ifop poll

UMP: 29,5 (+2,5)
PS: 29 (+2)
Europe ecologie: 11 (-2)
FN: 9 (+0,5)

Front de gauche: 6,5 (+1,5)
Modem: 5 (-1,5)
NPA: 2,5 (-0,5)
NPA/front de gauche: 0,5 (-0,5)
LO: 2 (-1)
Alliance ecologiste indépendante: 2

The decline of the greens is interessant to observe. Probably due to the fact that turnout will be way better than european elections (and that they are completely insane...). The same thing for FN but in opposite direction.

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IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%

Good for Le Pen.

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Sarkozy doesnt care about regional elections. he considers, and he's right IMO, that presidential election will be different for lots reasons: turnout, candidates, topics,...

Even a crushing defeat for UMP will not alter the chance of Sarkozy to be reelected.

Another interessant thing: criminality is the second topic mentioned in the ifop polls. And secondly, the last polls (Paca, MP and Aquitaine) show a FN in progression, not so way off than their 2004 level).

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Ifop poll (Paris)

02/25-26

Pecresse (UMP): 32 % (=)
Huchon (PS): 25 % (+1)
Duflot (EE): 15 % (-2)

Arnautu (FN): 7,5 % (-0,5)
Front de gauche: 7 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)
Besancenot (NPA): 3 % (-1)
Aignant (debout la République): 2,5 % (=)

Huchon: 55 %
Pecresse: 45 %

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Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.

IDF of course (the "great paris" lol)

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Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)

Where is ipsos when we need it.

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Ifop NPDC (yes !)

PS: 27 %
UMP: 20 %
FN: 17 %
EE: 12 %
Front de gauche: 10,5 %

PS: 54 %
UMP: 29 %
FN: 17 %

The result of the FN is the same than in 2004. Good for Marine. The question is to know if FN will do better than UMP. Second question, will Marine do better than her father in Paca?

Considering his last polls, Ifop sees a progression of the FN and PS, a decline of UMP and a bog failur for Modem.

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A good poll for UMP but, unfortunatly for this party, it's a sofres poll !

Alsace (03/2-4)

UMP: 41 %
PS: 17 %
EE: 17 %

FN: 9 %
Modem: 4 %


UMP: 55 %
EE- PS (Fernique): 45 %

UMP: 53 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 47 %

UMP: 49 %
EE-PS (Fernique): 42 %
FN: 9 %

UMP: 47 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 44 %
FN: 9 %

The alsace csa poll (02/23-24):

UMP: 33 %
PS: 19 %
EE: 15 %
FN: 12 %

Turnout: 54 %

UMP: 41 %
PS / EE: 46 %
FN: 13 %

UMP: 42 %
EE/PS: 46 %
FN: 12 %

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CSA national (03/02-03)

PS: 31 % (+1)
UMP: 27 % (-2)

EE: 14 % (-1)
FN: 9 % (+1)
FG: 6 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)

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Sofres has a small sample (700) in Alsace, and there's no way Richert, who's a jerk and has no crossover appeal, will poll 41% when a man like Zeller polled only 34% in the 2004 first round.

Sofres has been awful lately, worse than CSA even.

I agree of course (even if I consider 700 like not a small sample).