French Regionals 2010

[Math]

A new OpinionWay poll

UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

It is rather interesting to see the effects of the Epad affair...

[Math]

IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php

[Math]

PACA Isama (?) poll for Vauzelle

PS 30%
UMP 28%
FN 19%
Europe Ecologie 9%
FG 4%
MoDem 3%
Ligue du Sud 3%
NPA 2%
AEI 1%

Runoff

Vauzelle 48%
Mariani 34%
Le Pen 18%


Vauzele 56%
Mariani 44%

[Math]

You forgot FN at 19% in the first round.

Fixed.

It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?

[Math]

It's weird to see that in the two first runoff the Sofres survey tested, FN voters choose heavily to vote for the left (2% for Frêche, 2% for the Greens, 1% for Couderc) if there is no FN candidate...

Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

...and in the second scenario, all of them choose to vote in favor of Couderc.

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Okay, I guess I take the whole thing too seriously...

[Math]

***BREAKING NEWS***

Greens, UMP tied according to the first poll in Alsace.

Richert (UMP) 34%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 21%
Bigot (PS) 18%
Binder (FN) 11%
Werhling (MoDem) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 4%
(NPA) 2,5%
Stoessel (Force centriste Alsace) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 1,5%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 44%
Richert (UMP) 43%
Binder (FN) 13%

Richert (UMP) 44%
Bigot (PS) 41%
Binder (FN) 15%[/quote]

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-L-Alsace-voit-Vert-aux-elections-regionales-165403/

[Math]

OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...

[Math]

Awful results for the UMP in Alsace (but it is CSA, you know)...

Richert (UMP) 33%
Bigot (PS) 19%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 15%
Binder (FN) 12%
Werhling (MoDem) 5%
Santiago (Europe sociale) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 5%
Zimmermann (NPA) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 2%
Stirby (DVD) 1%

Turnout 54%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 46%
Richert (UMP) 42%
Binder (FN) 12%

Bigot (PS) 46%
Richert (UMP) 41%
Binder (FN) 12%

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 53%
Richert (UMP) 47%

Bigot (PS) 55%
Richert (UMP) 45%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2010/opi20100224-intentions-de-vote-en-region-alsace-dans-la-perspective-des-elections-regionales-de-mars-2010.pdf

[Math]

Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.

I think that Alsace will mainly depend of the FN results in the first round. It's to be the only region where the UMP seems to take advantage of the absence of the FN in the runoff, and the FN is surprisingly low here, compared to NPDC for example...

[Math]

According to a friend of mine, the PB, euh, the PS is at 43% in Brest, if it can be helpful (same as in 2004)...

[Math]

Let's see, ten bureaux de vote are still not in.

[Math]

Bravo le MoDem !

[Math]

Yeah Marine, the real French are coming back !

[Math]

Jean-Paul Huchon just said he stays "placid" on BFM, I find it pretty amusing...

[Math]

At least Greens are saving their honour in Brittany where there will be a 3-way runoff...

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales/article/2010/03/15/bretagne-europe-ecologie-et-le-ps-annoncent-une-triangulaire_1319787_1293905.html

[Math]

Paris: UMP 28.95, PS 26.26, GRN 20.57, FG 6.11, FN 6.1, MODEM 3.96, DLR 2.92, NPA 2.34
Paris-2: GRN 28.94, PS 25.52, UMP 24.18, FG 5.21, MODEM 4.79, FN 4.45 (bobo)
Paris-16: UMP 60.53, PS 11.31, GRN 9.31, FN 7.06, DLR 3.91, MODEM 3.07 (snobs)
Paris-20: PS 30.69, GRN 24.62, UMP 14.86, FG 10.55, FN 6.5, NPA 3.84, MODEM 3.69 (poors)

What I find amazing about Paris is not the high level of spatial polarization, but the fact it perpetuates despite social changes (gentryfication, boboisation). Exactly the opposite of Lyon.

[Math]

Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

[Math]

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

[Math]

Haven't heard NPdC.

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.

Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).

[Math]

Oh, , brace. Royal speaks.

So I guess Aubry is trying to do the same.