Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I believe Mark Schauer's state senate seat in Michigan is going to be filled in the general election in November. No, I don't know why they've waited so long to fill it.

[Former Moderate]

Looks like no one ever mentioned here, but apparently there was a special election for my old State Senate seat (District 24) back in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.  Sen. Rob Wonderling (R) left office to join the Greater Philly Chamber of Commerce.  The district is PVI neutral—Obama carried it by seven points.

Robert B. Mensch (R) 66.2%
Anne Henning Scheuring (D) 30.3%
Barbara Steever (L) 3.5%

Mensch was a State Rep, Scheuring was a councilor.  Mensch was favored; Democrats made an effort on behalf of Scheuring.

The PA Senate is once again 30R, 20D.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not much of an effort, it would seem.

[Former Moderate]

Not much of an effort, it would seem.

You can only put so much lipstick on a pig, as it were.

[Sam Spade]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

[Mr.Phips]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

I was going to post this.  I am wondering what is going to happen in New York City with Bloomberg after his overturning term limits.  I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

[Tender Branson]

I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

Latest SUSA poll on the race (Oct. 3-5, 561 likely voters):

Bloomberg (R): 51%
Thompson (D): 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=18b470af-8896-4deb-a2c1-1f0c65f4a5ad

[Sam Spade]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

I was going to post this.  I am wondering what is going to happen in New York City with Bloomberg after his overturning term limits.  I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

SUSA has Bloomberg up by 8 - a poll I was going to post in a few minutes.  And given the internals on the SUSA poll - I suspect it's closer than that.

btw, I'm not voting for Bloomberg or Thompson either.  Going third party this year - haven't looked over the candidates yet.

Bloomberg's a fascist and the term limits thingy still pisses me off.  I also have a personal reason why Bloomberg can f-off.  Thompson's a tool of the unions, the minorities and the Working Families party (a criminal organization) - I know all about his tenure as the head of the Board of Education back in the incompetent days too.

[Lunar]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

[Mr.Phips]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

[Lunar]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

Well, Obama's endorsement or non-endorsement will have other sorts of impacts than minority votes.

[Lunar]

Bloomberg is also spending insane amounts of money: $15k an hour since summer.  65 million total last week, probably 75 million by now

[Sibboleth]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

Haha, yes. I just put a thread up on it before reading this one. I wonder what Romero's base looked like this election - might ask Nate.

[Sibboleth]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?

[WMS]

You know, I'll re-post what I said in the other thread here. ^_^

Of perhaps greater importance...the Republicans gained a majority on the Albuquerque City Council. They did this by unseating the left-leaning Democratic candidate on the Upper West Side/District 5, Michael Cadigan. I will admit that I am very happy over that, since I've thought Cadigan didn't represent his constituents well at all and have thought that since shortly after he was initially elected. I also thought his incumbency would give him yet another win, though. And yes, I got to vote in the District 5 race. Not that I'm ecstatic about Lewis - too far right for me - but he IS an improvement on Cadigan.

The City Council, WMS' view:

District 1 - Ken Sanchez, centrist Democrat, close to Chavez and backed him
District 2 - Debbie O'Malley, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 3 - Isaac Benton, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 4 - Brad Winter, center-right Republican, backed Berry
District 5 - *NEW* Dan Lewis, rightist Republican, backed Berry, unseated (as said above) leftist Democrat Michael Cadigan
District 6 - Rey Garduno, leftist Democrat, backed Romero
District 7 - *NEW* Michael Cook, rightist? Republican, backed Berry? This race was odd because the incumbent, center-right Republican Sally Mayer (who was a staunch advocate for animals) who would likely have won, dropped out to move to Chicago to care for her elderly parents. The lefty opponent forgot to file his candidacy properly. So Cook strolls into this one.
District 8 - Trudy Jones, rightist Republican, backed Berry
District 9 - Don Harris, rightist? Republican, backed Berry

Now, it isn't this simple - most of the past several years the split has been between Pro-Chavez and Anti-Chavez Councillors, and THAT split varied by issue, because sometimes, but not always, the ideology counted. For example, both Mayer and Harris sometimes voted with Chavez more often than The Leftist Bloc (O'Malley, Benton, Garduno, and Cadigan) did. But that varied as well.

So I'm very curious how this new arrangement will work out, since both the dominant aspects of the City Council have changed - Chavez is no longer Mayor, and the Democrats no longer have a majority. The dynamics may be very, very, different than before...it's possible, but not certain, that the Republicans will get their own way there. Then again, Sanchez, White, and Harris have all been known to not vote in party lockstep. This could be entertaining.

I'll give you all the Major's Race From My Perspective:

Berry - Right
Chavez - Center
Romero - Left

But with plenty of additional local elements, mainly Chavez fatigue after all these years plus various local scandals, issues of interest, and so on and so forth. Although I don't have access to precinct totals and all that, apparently the media and others had general areas hammered out and from what they said there were some big shifts.

The Big Swingy Area, the Northeast Heights (not counting the Republican Far Northeast Heights) swung from Chavez to Berry. Chavez' Stronghold, the West Side, in a surprise to me swung toward Berry as well (I do not know who WON the area, however). And from what the paper is saying, Berry even did well in some places in Central Albuquerque that are usually reliably Democratic. Perhaps it was a broad-based feeling that it was time for a change? It's going to be a while before better data comes out on this.

Ideologically, it seems (from this story and that over the months) that Berry: 1. Took back the Republican votes Chavez had gained in past elections. 2. Won over the Independents. 3. Even dug into the Democratic voters.

Now, I suspect that Berry would've lost a runoff, although I'm not 100% on that because there are odd tactical voters like me that voted for Chavez but would've voted for Berry over Romero in a runoff (yes, I voted for Chavez, for all his flaws - I feel he's a mayor that actually DOES things for the city) so extrapolating meaning outside of Albuquerque is a very iffy measure. Still, I was surprised at how well-organized the Republicans were this time - the NM Reps are not exactly known for their competence in campaigning.

The lefties did not have a good night. Not only did their cherished candidate poll third (enjoy your 21%! Nyah!) but the Fall of Cadigan hurt them a lot on the City Council. I suspect they thought that Romero would poll first or second and win the runoff, thus leading to Leftist Rule. Instead, they opened the doors for Rightist Rule by splitting the Democratic vote. Whoops.

Annoyingly, Proposition 2 passed - up until now, Councilor pay raises had to be approved by the voters, and very rarely were. Now, some damn commission will determine if their salaries will be raised, and of course they will be. A lot. Repeatedly. There were other propositions, some I backed, some I didn't, but all passed. Oh well.

The transportation tax and the road bonds passed, but I voted for all of them (even though I now own a townhouse and am directly affected by them for once) so yay there.

Well, time to wait to eventually find out the precinct results and see if any good patterns developed...

Perhaps the loss of the house seat galvanised Albuquerque Republicans somewhat?

It could be. The Republicans DID make it a point to try and mobilize their voters for both the Mayoral race and the District 5 race; they had BOTH Heather Wilson AND Stevan Pearce make statements supporting Berry and Lewis, and even campaign a bit for them. The state party wasn't sleeping on this one.

A comment on a blog somewhere or other by the state Dems pointed out that, roughly, 'the Reps were united and the Dems were not', with moderate and leftist Dems splitting badly over this race. Another factor, to be sure.

There, that should help.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, its nice to see you posting again.

Second, very insightful post.

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?

I'm sure he also didn't get *very* many in 2005 also (definitely a whole lot less than the polls were saying), but this applies to most minorities.  But the blacks will return home this election, I can guarantee it.

I'd have to review the precincts specifically, but truth be told, the Giuliani/Bloomberg coalition has been pretty much the same since 1993, with 1993 mirroring 2001 and 1997 mirroring 2005 for said candidate (with racial variation depending on Dem candidate).

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and good to see you back, WMS.  I missed the thing on the City Council.

The impression I got from reading Joe Monahan was that Berry won the West Side, but who knows for the moment.

Interesting to see that the GOP in NM is possibly getting a tad more intelligent (though that's not saying much).  Folks who hold positions in Albuquerque city politics often get elected to higher office down there.

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is also spending insane amounts of money: $15k an hour since summer.  65 million total last week, probably 75 million by now

I should know - I get mailers from him almost every day.

I should note this - in 2005 (I did not live here, but know others), all of the mailers were focused on his accomplishments and simply ignored Ferrer.

A couple of weeks ago, his mailers started changing from being all positive to being about 50% attacking Bill Thompson and 50% positive.

Tells me something is going on.

[WMS]

First, its nice to see you posting again.

Second, very insightful post.

Thanks, but there isn't much that I find interesting enough to post to on these boards these days so I'm still going to lurk from time to time instead.

Thank you. ^_^ Additional features were that the public financing system put in place a year or so ago may have hurt Chavez since he was the best fundrasier of the trio by far and couldn't wield it like a weapon. On the other hand, I heard a lot fewer political ads on television and radio so that was kind of pleasant. Plus on the West Side, Chavez' longtime base, you possibly had more newer people moving in who might not have been aware that Chavez was one of their longtime champions, and thus voted by party affiliation or pure ideology instead of Chavez' record.

Oh, and good to see you back, WMS.  I missed the thing on the City Council.

The impression I got from reading Joe Monahan was that Berry won the West Side, but who knows for the moment.

Interesting to see that the GOP in NM is possibly getting a tad more intelligent (though that's not saying much).  Folks who hold positions in Albuquerque city politics often get elected to higher office down there.

The City Council bit may actually be the more important part, especially since all the mayor-weakening propositions passed this time around and the Council will now have more power.

Bah, I have a bit of a vendetta against Monahan so I try not to read him. But people gossip to him so I suppose his information has some value. I know that Berry bit into Chavez' strength over there - I think I read the part you did talking about that - but it wasn't clear whether or not the area flipped. I'll have to wait...

That isn't saying much at all especially given their meltdown last year. I mean, they lost state seats they never should've that time around. It didn't help that Pearce drug down the ticket. And good observation ^_^ in fact, you tend to see the same names pop up in every election...

[Tender Branson]

SHELBYVILLE, Tenn. — Voters go to the polls Tuesday in a special House election that could serve as a political bellwether for Tennessee.

Republicans last year gained majorities in both chambers of the Tennessee General Assembly for the first time in 140 years. But their advantage in the House was a single seat, and the chamber was cast into turmoil when one Republican sided with all 49 Democrats to be elected speaker.

The House District 62 election pits Republican Pat Marsh, the co-founder of Shelbyville-based trucking company Big G Express against Democrat Ty Cobb, a UPS driver and brother of the last person to hold the seat that represents all of Bedford County, most of Lincoln County and parts of Rutherford County.

Republicans hope a win would cement their majority in the chamber and give notice that more historically Democratic seats could be endangered when all 99 House members stand for election next year.

State Democrats, meanwhile, have made winning back the House their top objective — a task that would become all the more difficult if Cobb fails.

Republicans hold a comfortable 19-14 majority in the Senate, so who controls the House will have a major effect on redistricting of legislative and congressional seats following the 2010 census.

Given the high stakes of the special election, both parties have been pouring resources into the race and leading attacks on their opponent’s credentials.

http://www.timesnews.net/article.php?id=9017564

Gore did relatively well there in 2000, getting 48% or so. Kerry 38% and Obama 30%.

The last guy to hold the seat was the brother of the Democrat who is now running and won the district with 55% last year.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Ty Cobb?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was a Ty Cobb who ran for Congress in North Carolina last year.

I can't believe that the best Democratic candidate is apparently a UPS driver. Shows how much Tennessee has changed politically in the last decade.

Also, the county has a mayor? Huh?

[Meeker]

I'm confused. There already is a Ty Cobb representing the 64th District: http://www.tycobbonline.com/