Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's weird to see multiple former Reps running for these seats. In Virginia, I can only think of one former State Rep who returned to the House of Delegates (Al Pollard).

Anyway, thanks for the detailed look at these races.

[Tender Branson]

Atlanta Mayor Poll by InsiderAdvantage:

Mary Norwood -- 41 percent
Kasim Reed -- 22 percent
Lisa Borders -- 17 percent
Jesse Spikes -- 2 percent

Other -- 2 percent
Undecided -- 16 percent

http://www.wsbtv.com/politics/21403359/detail.html

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Steve Beshear worked his voodoo again, and now there's another open Republican State Senate seat in Kentucky (the incumbent was appointed to a circuit court judgeship). It'll be decided on 12/8, the same day as an election to replace State Rep. Robin Webb who won the last state senate special election. The likely candidates are a Republican State Rep. and a former Democratic State Rep.

[Meeker]

Who knew Steve Beshear was such a hardball politico? I approve.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Alabama HD65 - D Mark Keahey was elected to the State Senate, candidates are D Elaine Beech and R Jerry Reed.

Beech held this one 53-47.

Georgia HD75 - Open D seat; candidates are D Ron Dodson and R Shawn James.

D won 60-40.

Georgia HD141 - Open D seat; candidates are D Darrell Black, Rs Angela Gheesling-McCommon and Casey Tucker, and I "Rusty" Kidd. This is probably the only one that will be interesting.

Runoff between "Rusty" Kidd and either Darrell Black or Angela yadda yadda.

Michigan SD19 - Mark Schauer's Senate seat, don't know why it took them a year to fill it, but the candidates are D State Rep. Martin Griffin and R ex-State Rep. Mike Nofs.

Dems didn't even try to hold this one; Nofs won with over 60%.

Missouri HD73 - Same as above but without a clever joke; D Steve Brown is out. Candidates are D Stacey Newman and R Daniel O'Sullivan.

Easy Dem hold, 61.5 - 38.5.

New Hampshire HD Merrimack-11 - Open D seat. Candidates are D Jim MacKay and R Lynne Blankenbeker. Funnily enough, both unsuccessfully ran as Republicans in 2008 (it's normally a 5-member district). MacKay used to be in the legislature, in fact.

Blankenbeker by 20 votes (858 - 838); recount probable.

South Carolina HD48 - Open R seat; candidates are D Kathy Cantrell and R Ralph Norman (who used to represent this district; you may remember from his 2006 run for John Spratt's seat).

Norman won 72-28.

Washington HD16 - Same with appointed D Laura Grant; her opponent is R Terry Nealey.

Grant is getting shellacked 57-43 currently.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And with the landslide victory in Virginia, there will be two state senate special elections, probably in January:

Senate District 8 (part of Virginia Beach) - Republican Ken Stolle was elected Sheriff, and his district is GOP-leaning in the best of Democratic times. Kaine got 47% here in 2005, and it went 54-44 for McCain last year. Virginia Beach City Council member Rosemary Wilson and Stolle pal/ex-Amerigroup CEO Jeff McWaters are duking it out for the Republican nomination; it's unclear whether there will even be a Democrat running. There's a possible independent, some guy named Omar Pickron. I guess I could vote for him if the Democrats don't field anyone.

Senate District 37 (part of Fairfax County) - Republican Ken Cuccinelli was elected Attorney General. Generally a Dem-leaning seat, although obviously not tonight; it went 55-43 for Kaine and 55-44 Obama. Potential Democratic candidates include Dels. David Bulova and Dave Marsden (although perhaps not Marsden, given his narrow win tonight); Republicans might field Sully District Supervisor Michael Frey.

There's also the possibility of McDonnell appointing a Democrat in a vulnerable seat to his administration as a show of bipartisanship/easy seat pickup; Kaine did it in 2006.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats, while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running.

[frenger]

Next Tuesday, Alabama House district 56, formerly Dem (this is a runoff), and Rhode Island House district 10, also formerly D.

[Mr.Phips]

37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats, while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running.

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats, while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running.

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 

Never underestimate the laziness of Democratic voters. They nearly lost the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairmanship and Brian Moran's House of Delegates seat (and *did* lose Sharon Bulova's BoS seat) back in January.

[Mr.Phips]

37th update - Looks like Marsden is the front-runner for the Democrats, while three Republicans (two generic business types and a former school board member) are running.

Democrats should be able to pick up the 37th.  Im sure they are hungry for a win after last Tuesday. 

Never underestimate the laziness of Democratic voters. They nearly lost the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairmanship and Brian Moran's House of Delegates seat (and *did* lose Sharon Bulova's BoS seat) back in January.

I dont think they will be lazy anymore after what happened on Tuesday. 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Special for a House seat in Rhode Island. Dem hold... and the Republican came in third:

Scott Slater (D) - 661
Wilbur Jennings (I) - 232
Maurice Green (R) - 116

[Meeker]

But CARL said...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, father Slater got 87% in 2008, so obviously Slater the Younger's 66% result is a horrible sign for the Democrats.

Maybe the Republicans in Rhode Island should just disband and join that new Moderate Party. They might have more electoral success.

[Χahar]

661 votes? For a State Senate election?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

State House. 75 House districts into 1,050,000 people in the state comes out to about 14,000 citizens per district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Two elections tonight. First, in Mississippi, Republicans held an open Republican seat 53-47:

http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?S=11525428

Special elections in MS are nonpartisan, but DeLano is a Republican.

In California, the Assembly seat held by the guy who was in bed with lobbyists is advancing to a runoff:

http://www.ocvote.com/live/72ndpri/results.htm

First round results:

CHRIS NORBY (REP)    14,038    37.2%
JOHN MACMURRAY (DEM)    10,201    27.1%
LINDA ACKERMAN (REP)    7,416    19.7%
RICHARD FAHER (REP)    4,986    13.2%
JANE RANDS (GRN)    1,067    2.8%

Norby, MacMurray and Rands advance to round 2.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ahnold picked State Sen. Abel Maldonado as his new Lt. Governor, giving the Democrats a good shot at picking up his seat.

Also, the SD-37 election in Virginia has been set for January 12. Republican nomination will be on December 1. I can't find when the Democratic nomination is, but it doesn't matter, as it looks like it'll be Marsden.

For SD-8, the Republican nomination (the de facto election) will be decided on December 5. No word on when the actual election is, but it doesn't matter, as the Democrats aren't even going to put someone up for that one.

[frenger]

Iowa House District 33 today, on a Dem open seat.

[frenger]

Dems retained seat, as expected (it was the Cedar Rapids district).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

[frenger]

By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

Next week runoffs for all those Georgia specials last month (House districts 58 (D), 129 (R) and 141 (D) and Senate district 35 (D)) and Tennessee Senate district 31 (R).

[Meeker]

By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

Yes, CARL's logic is ridiculous.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The field is set (more or less) for the two State Senate special elections in Virginia on 1/12:

In the 8th, businessman Jeff McWaters defeated Virginia Beach City Council member Rosemary Wilson for the Republican nomination. He will likely be unopposed in the general (no Democrat is running, and independents must file by next Friday).

In the 37th, Republicans nominated former school board member Steve Hunt to face off against Democratic Del. Dave Marsden.

[frenger]

By a 78-22 margin, no less. It was 70-30 in 2008, so using Carl logic, this is terrible news for the Republicans.

Next week runoffs for all those Georgia specials last month (House districts 58 (D), 129 (R) and 141 (D) and Senate district 35 (D)) and Tennessee Senate district 31 (R).

By the way, the Georgia and Tennessee Senate districts were retained by respectively the Dems and the Reps.

In the Georgia House, the Dems retained 58, the GOP retained 129, the and Dems lost 141 to an independent who still hasn't announced who he'll caucus with.