Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
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Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 154137 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #325 on: April 29, 2010, 10:54:09 AM »

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

Hell yeah!
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rbt48
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« Reply #326 on: April 29, 2010, 11:02:37 AM »

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.
Is it John Laird who is gay, or Lt Gov Maldanado, or both?
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Holmes
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« Reply #327 on: April 29, 2010, 12:32:13 PM »

Haha. Gay Maldonado. It's Laird.
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« Reply #328 on: April 29, 2010, 09:07:28 PM »

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.

Laird's running for State Senate. The nominee for Lieutenant Governor will almost certainly be Gavin Newsom.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #329 on: April 30, 2010, 06:42:30 AM »
« Edited: May 15, 2010, 11:02:28 PM by jimrtex »

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?
In 2002 it was an equal 40:40 registration, and Gore only carried it by 1.5%.

SLO had a 7% R advantage.

Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Monterey 7% D (vs, 12% D in the rest of the county, it leaves out the Salinas Valley)

Sta Barbara 3% R (vs. 6% D in the rest of the county) it is the area around Santa Maria and not Santa Barbara city.

Sta Cruz 19% D (but vs 33% D in the rest of the county) and it is only about 12% of the district.

Not only did Maldonado win in 2008, the Democrats didn't put up an opponent.  Maldonado actually tried to get the Democrat nomination as a write-in.
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« Reply #330 on: May 02, 2010, 01:00:28 AM »

Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Is that so? That's rather interesting. Saratoga and Los Gatos both have sizable Asian populations.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #331 on: May 02, 2010, 10:51:59 AM »

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #332 on: May 02, 2010, 11:09:56 AM »

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #333 on: May 05, 2010, 01:14:09 PM »

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...
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jimrtex
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« Reply #334 on: May 08, 2010, 10:00:40 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2010, 08:29:22 PM by jimrtex »

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
With one precinct still out:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The other counties were in the 5.0% range.  More votes were cast in Hood County than in either Johnson and Ellis County, though they have 2-1/2 to 3 times the population.

Birdwell and Sibley will face off in a runoff, which will be sometime in early June (the governor can pick the date).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.

5.18%  His supporters will likely go for Birdwell.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.

13.24%.  He did quite a bit better in election day voting, than in early voting (11.7% vs 14.5%) so it may have been voters who were voting in a school or city election, and saw that he was a Democrat.  They will be less likely to show up to vote in an election between two Republicans.  

Since an issue raised in the campaign was Sibley's contributions to Democrats, he can't visibly be seen accepting support from Democrats.  If Birdwell can push turnout in other areas especially in the DFW area, he can probably be able to win the runoff.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #335 on: May 08, 2010, 10:18:35 PM »

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #336 on: May 08, 2010, 11:10:40 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2010, 11:16:28 PM by Kevinstat »

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049


Wow!  While I find it unfortunate that the Secretary of State's Office did not list a special election on their web site (while they presumably did for the SD22 special election also held yesterday (Saturday)), and media coverage of the election might also have been poor, outcomes like this are part of what makes electoral politics fun for me.  Will the Legislature be in session between now and the inaugaration of the Legislators elected to full terms next year?  Or will Jackson likely never cast a vote in the partial term she was just elected to?

Who won yesterday's SD22 special election, by the way?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #337 on: May 09, 2010, 11:58:46 PM »

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.
It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049

Wow!  While I find it unfortunate that the Secretary of State's Office did not list a special election on their web site (while they presumably did for the SD22 special election also held yesterday (Saturday)), and media coverage of the election might also have been poor, outcomes like this are part of what makes electoral politics fun for me.  Will the Legislature be in session between now and the inaugaration of the Legislators elected to full terms next year?  Or will Jackson likely never cast a vote in the partial term she was just elected to?
It gets even curiouser!

The Secretary of State had cancelled the election and declared Taylor elected, which is why the HD 66 results were not on the SOS web site.  Taylor may have even been sworn in.
He is shown as a representative on the House of Representatives website.

In 2001, the Texas Constitution was amended to permit the legislature to provide for filling legislative vacancies when only one candidate has declared their candidacy.  To that end, they moved the filing date for write-in candidates in special elections to be the same as for on-ballot candidates.  Since a declared write-in candidate is "a candidate" this would avoid a problem with someone filing at the last minute and forcing an election.  And for most elections, the last date for withdrawal is within a week or so of the filing date.  So it is relatively easy to determine that there is only one candidate who has filed, since any withdrawals will have occurred before ballots are printed, or arrangements for polling places, etc. have been finalized.

For legislative races, candidates file with the Secretary of State, who in turn notifies the counties of the candidates, even if the district is within a single county.   So in this case, the governor proclaimed the election, and the SOS then notified Collin County about the election they would have to conduct.  The SOS would also notify the county of the candidates who had filed.

This particular election was conducted on an extremely short cycle, with the proclamation on April 2, and the uniform election date 36 days later (this is the absolute minimum time interval).  When there is such as short cycle, the withdrawal date is two days before early voting, which began on April 26.  And Jackson did withdraw before April 24, since the SOS cancelled the election on April 19.

When a candidate withdraws, their name is left off the ballot.  And in most elections this is no problem since the withdrawal deadline is so early, that rather than removing their name, it is actually a case of not printing their name.  But in this case, it may not have been practical.  Or it might be that they were told not to bother because the election was cancelled.  In any case, the ballots had been printed, because the votes show up on the Collin County elections website.

There is a similar provision when a candidate who qualifies for a runoff withdraws.  But again that withdrawal must occur within days of the first election, so that it permits the runoff to be cancelled before much effort has been made to arrange for it.

The law permitting cancellation of a special legislative election is written in an odd way.  It is actually framed more in terms of the conditions that would be needed for a school district or small town election to be cancelled - that all candidates for all offices are unopposed, and that there are no propositions on the ballot.  I am pretty sure the language was copied from that for other local elections.

So I don't think the special election should have been cancelled, but it was similar to a runoff election (Taylor and Jackson had been in the primary runoff, which was after the filing deadline for the special election).  If there shouldn't have been a cancellation, then it is possible that the whole election was void because of confusion to voters and candidates.

But I think the withdrawal by Jackson was in time.  I think that would make her ineligible to be elected.  If she was ineligible, it would mean that there is a new vacancy (this is similar to the case when a candidate dies, and they receive the most votes).

So in either case, there is still a vacancy.  Or it might be decided that the election was properly cancelled, and the printing of ballots and counting or votes was simply a mistake.

And now, the next uniform election date is in November.  The governor may call an emergency special election, but there really is no reason to do so.  The Texas legislature only meets in regular session in odd years.  It is unlikely that there will be a special session.  Texas uses a biennial budget, and the economy was in good enough shape last year that Texas should be able to squeeze through - there are some procedures that permit adjustments so that the legislature doesn't need to meet, and the state can still have a balanced budget.  Governor Perry wouldn't want a special session.  There are some interim committee meetings, but you don't really need a full legislature for that.

Who won yesterday's SD22 special election, by the way?
I gave those results on another reply - but I messed up the quoting.  Sibley and Birdwell advance to a runoff.

Really interesting turnout, with 16% in Hood County, Birdwell's home county that went overwhelmingly for him.  Hood is the 5th most populous county in the district, but had the 2nd number of votes.

Sibley carried his home county of McLennan County by a strong share, and 8% turnout.   The rest of the district was around 5%.

Sibley was just above 50%, and the entire vote from Hood County was dumped in at one time and shifted him to just over 40%.  At that time, there were still considerable votes out in McLennan county, and Sibley eventually got it back to about 45% to 37%.

The lone Democrat received 13%, and the other Republican 5%.

Since the campaign against Sibley was that he was a lobbyist who had contributed to Democrats, he can't too visibly seek votes from Democrats.  And I doubt that Democrats would mount too active of a campaign for him.  So Sibley probably won't get too many votes from ordinary rank and file Democrats.  Birdwell has the possibility of getting a really strong get out of the vote effort for the special election.  He did well in Johnson County on low turnout.  For some reason Sibley did better in Ellis County of equally low turnout.  When Sibley was senator before, Ellis was not in the district at the time.

There is still the determination of who will fill the nomination vacancy for the full term (because of redistricting, it will actually be for 2 years, rather than 4 years).  This will be made by the county chairmen from the 10 counties in the district.  If Birdwell wins big in the runoff, I suspect that that he will be the GOP choice.  The Democrats may pass because they don't want to have Republicans turning out and voting against Chet Edwards.  If Sibley wins the runoff, he will probably be the nominee because he is the establishment candidate.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #338 on: May 10, 2010, 07:09:47 AM »

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.
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« Reply #339 on: May 10, 2010, 11:35:11 AM »

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #340 on: May 10, 2010, 05:42:40 PM »

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?

HD-12 and SD-49 are Republican seats, while SD-42 is a Democratic seat.

HD-12 is the only one with both parties contesting; 2 Rs and 1 D. SD-49 is 2 Rs and a Libertarian. SD-42 is 2 Ds, a Libertarian, and an Independent.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #341 on: May 11, 2010, 05:01:30 PM »

Apparently Jimmy Carter's grandson is running for the SD-42 seat.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #342 on: May 11, 2010, 05:48:12 PM »

What is expected in Scott Brown's state Senate seat?
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« Reply #343 on: May 11, 2010, 06:43:17 PM »


It's a pretty Republican district (by Massachusetts standards.) Obama won it by about 2 points I think which in MA is quite weak.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #344 on: May 11, 2010, 07:58:12 PM »

The Georgia specials did, indeed, turn out boring: the two Republican districts are being won by one of the two Republicans with around 80% of the vote, while Jason Carter is cruising to a 67% victory.

No numbers from Massachusetts, but I'm hearing the Dem got slaughtered.
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Meeker
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« Reply #345 on: May 11, 2010, 11:29:28 PM »

Massachusetts numbers

Ross (R): 62% (15,893)
Smulowitz (D): 38% (9,819)

Bleh
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« Reply #346 on: May 12, 2010, 12:15:03 AM »

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #347 on: May 12, 2010, 07:27:53 AM »

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #348 on: May 12, 2010, 08:01:25 AM »

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

The southern tip was stunningly Republican in this election.

In Wrentham, Ross won 86% of the vote, 1897 - 308. Eighty-six percent.

Ross got 81.2% in Plainville, 78.6% in North Attleboro, and 77.9% in Norfolk.
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« Reply #349 on: May 12, 2010, 08:07:13 AM »

The full town-by-town results: http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/8405/unofficial-results-have-ross-win-at-62
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