Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[jimrtex]

Just a tiny amount of San Jose is in the district, though. You can't extrapolate the 2008 results and make a prediction on tonight's showing from them.

I think by-mail voting is going to end up being 75-80% of the vote.

Santa Clara has 53 of 103 precincts in with 2732 votes vs 20,182 by mail.   Blakeslee appears to be doing a little bit better in election day voting.  So it could end up really close to 50%.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

That seat looks rather gerrymandered.

Yes. It's a good thing this is going to be the last election it sees.

Lots of mail voting here. The failure to carry Santa Clara doesn't bode well for us. There's about an equall number of precincts out between Democratic Santa Cruz and Monterey and Republican San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara. Blakeslee will be riding up right near that 50% mark.

[Mr.Phips]

Using my spreadsheet, I have Blakeslee with 48% and Baird with 43%.  Even though Baird represented 55% of this district and Blakeslee only 45%, Baird is behind because he is only winning his Assembly district 52%-40% and Blakeslee is winning 59%-31% in his.  Baird is going to have to win over more Democrats, especially in Santa Clara, if he is going to win the runoff.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

[Mr.Phips]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

There was no crossover vote. The issue was turnout. I recieved information in the evening that Republicans voted by mail at a rate of approximately 4% more than Democrats, which would imply that there was very little crossover on either side. Of course Laird needs to win Santa Clara County to stand a chance in the runoff, but his disadvantage is a structural one, stemming from the fact that this is the least Democratic part of the county, and that low-turnout elections (as state legislative special elections are bound to be) favor Republicans.

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?

To the best of my knowledge, yes.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

McCain only ran about 2-3% ahead of Republican registration in the northern 3 counties, so maybe 15-20% of the independent vote.  He did a lot better in SLO, and somewhat better in Santa Barbara.

Assuming equal turnout among Republicans, Democrats, and independents, a Republican only needs a bit over 60% among independents to win.

[Holmes]

I'm pretty surprised Blakeslee did so well in Santa Barbara. Granted, I don't know too much about Santa Barbara, let alone what part of it is in the district. Though, Laird definitely needs to perform better in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey to win in August.

Also, I hope those three can be redistricted out of the wretched SoCal next year.

[Holmes]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

I'm pretty surprised Blakeslee did so well in Santa Barbara. Granted, I don't know too much about Santa Barbara, let alone what part of it is in the district. Though, Laird definitely needs to perform better in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey to win in August.

Also, I hope those three can be redistricted out of the wretched SoCal next year.

It's just northern Santa Barbara that's in this district (the area around Santa Maria, where Maldonado's from). Santa Barbara iself is outside the district, just like Santa Cruz.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The Secretary of State publishes presidential election results by senate district (and county within the district), as well as for assembly and congressional districts.

Go ahead and check it out.  If you have difficulty finding it, ask questions, and perhaps someone can assist you.

[Mr.Phips]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The part of Santa Clara in the district went 63% for Obama as opposed to 69% for Obama in the county as a whole. 

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The part of Santa Clara in the district went 63% for Obama as opposed to 69% for Obama in the county as a whole. 

62.1%.  You might be disregarding the 1.7% of the vote cast for other candidates.

[jimrtex]

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.

After Birdwell was sworn in to fill the remainder of the current term, he was nominated by the county chairs for the full (two year term).  The Democrats then nominated somebody, and immediately sued to have Birdwell declared ineligible (to have standing they had to have a candidate).  The Fort Worth appeals court where the case had recused themselves, because they didn't have time to consider the case, and dumped it into the laps of the Dallas appeals court.  Since under the Constitution, the Senate has authority to judge the qualifications and elections of its members, and have already sworn him in, it is possible the judges could just tell the Democratic challenger to contest the election if he loses.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oh yeah, that special election for Maldonado's State Senate seat in California is next week.

[Kuu ülevaade olulisematest]

I believe there's a televised debate today or tomorrow.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the Republican won in California, by a 49-44 margin, about what the performance was in the "primary".

[Holmes]

Grooooooosssssssss.

Please let Watsonville not be in any district that touches SoCal after redistricting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Guess we have to resurrect this thread; there are two special elections in Louisiana today, SD-2 and HD-5. Of course, there's no threat of a party change: four Democrats are running in the former, two Republicans are in the latter.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Time to resurrect the thread for reals: specials for the two state legislative seats vacated by victorious Republicans Robert Hurt (SD-19) and Morgan Griffith (HD-08) have been set for January 11. Both are pretty Republican seats, but Democrats are actually coughing up a decent candidate for Hurt's seat, a county supervisor. However, they don't have a candidate for the House district yet. It's a five-way race for the Republican nomination in SD-19, while only one has stepped up for HD-08 (and has been endorsed by Griffith), so he's probably going to sail into office.

[jimrtex]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

[JulioMadrid]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

[Gravis Marketing]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

McCain beat Obama by about 30 points in these three counties, FWIW.