Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JulioMadrid]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

McCain beat Obama by about 30 points in these three counties, FWIW.

so, no. thanks

[CARLHAYDEN]

Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.

ROFL

Have you not learned anything from trying to analyze these special election results CARL? THEY'RE IRRELEVANT. ALL OF THEM.

Irrelevant?!?

Hmm.

As our British posters could tell you, special elections are closely studied as harbingers of future elections.

What happened in the special elections seems to have been validated in the general elections this year.

[Meeker]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

[Meeker]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

Oh ok, a year and two months and your post still doesn't make any sense. Further congratulations.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

Oh ok, a year and two months and your post still doesn't make any sense. Further congratulations.

Well, we've made some progress, so I'll try to use a very simple explanation as you still don't understand.

The poster to whom I responded asserted the special elections are meaningless.

I have previously noted that they frequently provide advance warning of what will happen in general elections.

As I noted in the response to which he responded, there was a well developed gtrend toward Republicans.

If you check, you will find the Republicans made massive gains in the state legislative elections in the general election in 2010.

[Meeker]

Ok CARL, you win. I bow down to your superior electoral prognostication skills - always deeply rooted in facts and thoughtful consideration.

[jimrtex]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

John Kuempel, the late Edmund Kuempel's son, was elected with 65.6% of the vote.  A Democrat managed a surprising 4th in the race.

John Kuempel REP              7,245 65.69%
Gary W. Inmon REP             1,123 10.18%
Myrna McLeroy REP             1,022  9.26%
Cheryl Dees Patterson DEM       689  6.24%
Robin R. Walker REP             544  4.93%
Daniel Rodriguez Andrade DEM    119  1.07%
Ron Avery    REP                 79  0.71%
Chris Burchell REP               73  0.66%
Jim Fish REP                     73  0.66%
Tony Gergely LIB                 62  0.56%

[rbt48]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

John Kuempel, the late Edmund Kuempel's son, was elected with 65.6% of the vote.  A Democrat managed a surprising 4th in the race.

John Kuempel REP              7,245 65.69%
Gary W. Inmon REP             1,123 10.18%
Myrna McLeroy REP             1,022  9.26%
Cheryl Dees Patterson DEM       689  6.24%
Robin R. Walker REP             544  4.93%
Daniel Rodriguez Andrade DEM    119  1.07%
Ron Avery    REP                 79  0.71%
Chris Burchell REP               73  0.66%
Jim Fish REP                     73  0.66%
Tony Gergely LIB                 62  0.56%

What a nice tribute to his Dad.  

This win gives the Republicans a 101 to 49 edge in the Texas State House.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!

[Landslide Lyndon]

I guess Obama dodged that bullet.

[Χahar]

Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!

Yeah, it is.

[rob in cal]

Next Tuesday I get to vote in our State Senate special election (Sacramento California area state senate seat, safe GOP I believe).  It will be the only thing on the ballot, so I'll be watching how quickly the voting goes at my precinct when I come in to vote.  Kind of like elections in most parts of the world where the legislative election is usually the only thing on the ballot.  There's two candidates on the ballot and thats it, should take upwards of 7 seconds to vote.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Pre-election fundraising reports for the two specials in Virginia next week:

SD-19

Bill Stanley (R) - $65k raised, $24k on hand
Hank Davis (D) - $52k raised, $14k on hand

HD-08

Greg Habeeb (R) - $138k raised, $67k on hand
Ginger Mumpower (D) - $27k raised, $3k on hand

Both districts are pretty Republican, but the Republicans nominated the worst candidate of the bunch in SD-19, so that one might at least be interesting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There were two elections yesterday, one in Iowa and one in California, both Republican holds.

[rbt48]

There were two elections yesterday, one in Iowa and one in California, both Republican holds.

Were The CA and IA elections State Senate or lower house?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

California was Senate, Iowa was House.

Tomorrow is the day of the two specials in Virginia. Nothing exciting is expected from either.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like easy holds for the Republicans; it's currently 60-40 in the Senate race and 65-35 in the House race. Not unexpected, of course.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There were two specials in Mississippi as well, for Nunnelee and Palazzo's seats. Republicans held both (one outright, one is going to a runoff between two Republicans).

[rbt48]

I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.

Correct!

However, I suspect the most party changing this year will be in the State Senate.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Special election in Minnesota House, 5B. Mark Dayton has appointed incumbent Tony Sertich, former Majority Leader and who was in line to become Speaker to chair the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board (Yes the acronym for that is IRRRB, awesome.) Sertich was mentioned as a possible challenger to Cravaack so this probably takes him out of the running. Primary is Feb 1st, general is Feb 15th.

Dayton won the seat 63-29, so obviously this one probably isn't going to be competitive, but the DFL primary should be interesting. Filing deadline has just passed, there are four Democrats running, one IP and one Republican (the same guy who lost to Sertich in November and got 33%.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another state Senate race in Iowa last night; Republican hold, unsurprisingly.

There's another Virginia House seat up on March 8, the 91st; Republican Tom Gear resigned due to complications from MS. Poquoson Mayor Gordon Helsel is the Republican nominee. He ran as an independent in 2009 and lost 48-33, with a Democrat in third at 19. Democrats might not run a candidate, since it's a heavily-Republican district and Helsel is pretty well-liked by everyone.