Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 02, 2014, 11:41:36 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 29 Print
Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 77442 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #475 on: February 19, 2011, 09:52:07 pm »
Ignore

You can't make early calls on these Southern races without knowing exactly what's in precinct-wise. Even though it's Acadia.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6844


View Profile
« Reply #476 on: February 19, 2011, 09:55:38 pm »
Ignore

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.
Logged
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 764


View Profile WWW
« Reply #477 on: February 19, 2011, 10:00:38 pm »
Ignore

As of 8:59 PM:
61 of 106 precincts reporting

Nathan Granger (D) 48.08% 5970
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.92% 6447

Yes, this is for control of the State Senate.
Logged

JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6844


View Profile
« Reply #478 on: February 19, 2011, 10:03:59 pm »
Ignore

That's funny, now Granger is winning in Acadia (though only by a handful of votes) while losing in Vermillion.
Logged
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419


View Profile
« Reply #479 on: February 19, 2011, 10:06:41 pm »
Ignore

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?
Logged

Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #480 on: February 19, 2011, 10:10:26 pm »
Ignore

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6844


View Profile
« Reply #481 on: February 19, 2011, 10:15:21 pm »
Ignore

Everything's in, and Perry wins by 688 votes.

It doesn't really matter for redistricting, since the Congressional map is going to be 5-1, and the Democrats are screwed when it comes to the state legislature. They're going to lose an entire Senate seat in New Orleans.
Logged
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 764


View Profile WWW
« Reply #482 on: February 19, 2011, 10:16:25 pm »
Ignore

Looks like the Republicans have taken over the LA State Senate, 20 to 19.

State Senator -- 26th Senatorial District
All 106 precincts reporting
Nathan Granger (D) 48.25%  9,491
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.75%  10,179
Logged

Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #483 on: February 19, 2011, 10:17:28 pm »
Ignore

Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.
Logged
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 764


View Profile WWW
« Reply #484 on: February 19, 2011, 10:20:15 pm »
Ignore

This leaves the Democrats holding both houses in Arkansas, the State Senate in Virginia, the State House in Kentucky and Mississippi.  All else is Republican in Dixie.

Also, here is the nation-wide breakout:
26 Republican-controlled Legislatures
15 Democratic-controlled Legislatures
8 Split Legislatures
1 Officially non-partisan (Nebraska)
50 Total
Logged

Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419


View Profile
« Reply #485 on: February 19, 2011, 10:32:55 pm »
Ignore

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.

But they could still have bargained for a map that would give them opportunities to win open seats in good years.
Logged

JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6844


View Profile
« Reply #486 on: February 19, 2011, 10:37:31 pm »
Ignore

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56446
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #487 on: February 19, 2011, 10:38:31 pm »
Ignore

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419


View Profile
« Reply #488 on: February 19, 2011, 10:45:49 pm »
Ignore

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Obama won't be President after 2017 at the latest. Democrats won LA-03 as an open seat in 2004, won a special election for LA-06 in 2008 and came very close to winning LA-04 in 2008. These weren't results with beloved old Dixiecrats, these were open seats. I doubt Louisiana has really trended away from being to elect Democrats in open seats to having absolutely no chance in just a few years.
Logged

Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13152
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #489 on: February 20, 2011, 01:33:03 am »
Ignore

Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.

Fishy?
Logged

Mississippi Political Freak
ECPolitico
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 87
United States


View Profile
« Reply #490 on: February 20, 2011, 09:32:17 am »
Ignore

From the results of Louisiana's SD-26 Special election, I'd like to raise a few questions on the voting behaviors of Louisiana's Cajuns:

1. It seems the tactic by the GOP campaign team tarring the Dem candidate through alleged association of his campaign manager with OFA (Organizing for America) works superbly in this race.  I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Thanks!
Logged
PASOK Leader Hashemite
Hashemite
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31367
South Africa



View Profile WWW
« Reply #491 on: February 20, 2011, 10:05:25 am »
Ignore

I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

He's black.

Quote
2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

The President is a black liberal named Hussein from Chicago.

Quote
3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Since when have Southerners voted based on their economic interests?
Logged

Mississippi Political Freak
ECPolitico
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 87
United States


View Profile
« Reply #492 on: February 20, 2011, 10:16:32 am »
Ignore

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« Reply #493 on: February 20, 2011, 12:52:24 pm »
Ignore

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Democrats_lose_another_one_in_the_South.html?showall
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38850
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #494 on: February 20, 2011, 02:17:02 pm »
Ignore

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:



That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Mississippi Political Freak
ECPolitico
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 87
United States


View Profile
« Reply #495 on: February 20, 2011, 04:45:23 pm »
Ignore

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:



That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.

So do you imply that Cajuns can be rather racist folks in terms of their voting behavior?  Thanks!
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58778
India


View Profile
« Reply #496 on: February 20, 2011, 05:06:32 pm »
Ignore

They are Americans. They are White. They are not flaming pinkos. They vote GOP less than 100.000% of the time. QED.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72108
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #497 on: February 20, 2011, 05:37:34 pm »
Ignore

Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6547
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #498 on: February 20, 2011, 05:50:57 pm »
Ignore

Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%

LOL
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 764


View Profile WWW
« Reply #499 on: February 20, 2011, 07:13:23 pm »
Ignore

Wikipedia has a listing for special state legislative elections.  Someone seems to keep it fairly up to date, though the individual links to the actual races do not necessarily cover that special election.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011 

It looks like Tuesday is a busy day for filling vacancies in Connecticut.  I gather the vacancies were mostly a result of the new governor appointing members of the legislature to positions in his administration.  His timing of announcing proposed tax increases might be interesting to see for an impact on the results. 
Logged

Pages: 1 ... 15 16 17 18 19 [20] 21 22 23 24 25 ... 29 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines