Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[homelycooking]

Wikipedia has a listing for special state legislative elections.  Someone seems to keep it fairly up to date, though the individual links to the actual races do not necessarily cover that special election.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011 

It looks like Tuesday is a busy day for filling vacancies in Connecticut.  I gather the vacancies were mostly a result of the new governor appointing members of the legislature to positions in his administration.  His timing of announcing proposed tax increases might be interesting to see for an impact on the results. 

You're exactly right about the reason for the vacancies. Most of the special elections on Tuesday will happen in solid Democratic territory like West Hartford and Bridgeport and thus will be like watching paint dry. The most interesting ones will be in the 13th Senate District, where the incumbent was arrested for larceny and resigned, and in the 25th House District where New Britain's mayor is running for the GOP and providing some major star power.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And Janet Peckinpaugh makes another run for office in the 36th, you can't forget her.

[homelycooking]

Absolutely. That's a tough district for the GOP due to Chester and Deep River, but Peckinpaugh should be able to at least make it close.

[Bacon King]

The special election was (even in the short term) probably irrelevant regarding Republican control of the LA State Senate. Given another few months some conservative Democrat scared about redistricting would've switched parties to save his own seat, especially once the chamber actually started talking about redistricting.

[Nichlemn]

I wonder how many party switchers we'll see in the LA State Senate before November.

[Sam Spade]

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.

[Torie]

Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.

[Sam Spade]

Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=121854.msg2743752#msg2743752

[Gravis Marketing]

This is why Republicans have such trouble getting elected in Massachusetts, too, and you have selectmen from towns and random activists often running for high-level positions on behalf of the GOP.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I kind of figured out the big problem the GOP has in Massachusetts awhile back, the state is geographically built so that no areas prone to strong Republicanism can develop. It's not really that the state is so Dem as you'd expect at least one seat out of ten to go Republican in a 60% Democratic state, Republicans do win parts of Wayne County after all and would have at least one safe seat if split into 10 districts. We're comparably to Massachusetts at the Hennepin County level but if we had partisan elections for county commisioner 2/7 of our seats would be safe GOP, another one would be a pure swing seat. But all around Boston you have some urban and often heavily minority areas scattered instead of exurbs. Got to the northeast and you enter Lynn and then Salem, there are some GOP pockets north of there but because of those cities will always be outvoted. Straight north takes you to Lawrence, and you have to go to New Hampshire to find the real exurbs. There are no exurbs to the west because of Framingham, and no exurbs to the west of there because then you're in the Worcester area. And if you head south you'll soon leave the Boston suburbs and instead end up in the area of New Bedford, Fall River and Providence, RI. To the southeast though with no real urban area you have one of the few reliably GOP areas in the state. But there simply is no place in the state where you can get lots of heavily Republican exurban type areas that aren't outvoted by somewhere else. And since the western rural part of the state and now the Cape are heavily Dem, there's just not much of an opportunity anywhere.

[Torie]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.

It's so sad that electoral politics these days seems to be more about political domination through the destruction of the opposing party than positive advocacy for the platforms of a candidate's own party. 

I have the question though, why are the state-level Republicans seems to be more power-hungry and less concerned about governance and more preoccupied by political dominance than their Democratic compatriots?

As another side-note stemming from this response, after seeing through the promotion of straight-ticket voting by the Texas GOP, I really find it deplorable to allow voters to vote straight-ticket under any circumstances, as this provides a convenient excuse for voters to place partisanship over the merits of individual candidates and whether they are better fits to particular positions.  This is a blatant insult to the ideals of democracy, under which voter are supposed to make well-informed choices.  I therefore strongly recommend straight ticket should be abolished nationally. 

[Torie]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

[Sibboleth]

Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out.

Think you might want to consider rephrasing that, slightly.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state.

And Montco in Maryland does have a large Jewish population, but I'd be shocked if it was a plurality. You also missed Howard County. And there's no way there's a Jewish plurality in suburban Philly. For that matter there's also NOVA.

[Senator Napoleon]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state.

You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I'm thinking of places like New Canaan and Darien.

[homelycooking]

You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

I think one will, and maybe two. The House seat in New Britain, the House seat in Chester/Essex and the Senate seat in Meriden have GOP candidates with fair shots at winning.

[Torie]

By plurality BRTD I meant a substantial minority. I misused the word! 

If you can find a poll of upper middle class WASPS let me know. A poll of Protestants won't cut it - even white Protestants. White Protestants are a rather variegated bunch in a host of ways.

[Former Moderate]

FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I'm guessing SD-13 might flip; it was pretty close at the gubernatorial level, and the incumbent only won 58-42 last year. The House seats don't seem particularly important, since the Democrats have a much larger majority there than in the Senate.

Edit: For the House seats, best odds are probably HD-36, 99, and/or 101 flipping.

[rbt48]

Anyone know of good websites to follow the results in Connecticut and the Missouri State Senate race tonight?

[homelycooking]

I'm guessing SD-13 might flip; it was pretty close at the gubernatorial level, and the incumbent only won 58-42 last year. The House seats don't seem particularly important, since the Democrats have a much larger majority there than in the Senate.

Edit: For the House seats, best odds are probably HD-36, 99, and/or 101 flipping.

The incumbent in SD-13 not only won by a small margin, but also was recently arrested for larceny.

I give HD-36 about a 55% chance of flipping. HD-25 might be surprising because of the popular GOP candidate. I give the edge to the Democrat in HD-101 because Madison has had a massive swing over the past decade to Democrats. Same with HD-99 in East Haven. The other two are so Democratic they're not worth mentioning.

[Senator Napoleon]

You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

I think one will, and maybe two. The House seat in New Britain, the House seat in Chester/Essex and the Senate seat in Meriden have GOP candidates with fair shots at winning.

Peckinpaugh is the only one I can see winning but I still don't believe it will happen. We shall see.

FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.

Malloy is a moron and this is just preemptive damage control. It is, after all, his fault if we lose any seats. Still, it's not like a loss or two does much damage to our majorities.