Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[rob in cal]

Today is California Assembly District 4.  I just voted, number 33 in my precinct at 5 in the afternoon.  A very low turnout.  Turns out my neighbor, (about six houses away) is a front runner to make the runoff.  It may be a runoff between him, John Allard, and the former assemblyman's wife, Beth Gaines, an all GOP battle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Not sure if this counts as a hold or a pickup, but a Republican won a House seat in Arkansas 60-40. The reason I say that is it was held by a term-limited Democrat, then won by a Republican who died before the election last year. That puts the Arkansas House at 54-45 with one vacancy (a Dem seat).

[rbt48]

Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Democrats hold House of Representatives District 98
Antonio '2 Shay' Parkinson - D 3,810
Write-In (Artie Smith) -  78

[JohnnyLongtorso]

How was SD-18 going to be close? It was Diane Black's seat in the Nashville suburbs.

[rbt48]

How was SD-18 going to be close? It was Diane Black's seat in the Nashville suburbs.

Well, recall that the CD she won had been in Democratic hands since the Civil War.  Rural areas of middle and western Tennessee had certainly trended Republican in Presidential elections starting in 2000 and especially in 2008, but the strength of Republicans further down the ballot and at the county level was lacking.  

I can't recall where I read that this race was supposed to be close, but the fact that the Republican won by better than 2 to 1 in a more rural (ok, part suburban) part of middle Tennessee is, I believe, noteworthy.  It is consistent with the trend toward voting Republican down the ballot to county races across much of the rural south.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Hi!  The Dem candidate being a local elected official doesn't mean that the race will be necessarily close.  It also depends on the political makeup of the district, as SD-18 in Tennessee seems to be consist of Nashville suburbs like Gallatin and Hendersonville which are trending sharply to the right.  Also Mayor Ken Wilber's fiscal stewardship is under prominent scrutiny.  Finally, the GOP candidate has a slightly larger geographical base to work from (Springfield in Robertson County vs. Portland in Sumner County).  Together with a friendly territory, Robert's victory isn't really a surprise.  This is my two cents on the race from a decidedly non-local perspective.

[Mississippi Political Freak]

Not sure if this counts as a hold or a pickup, but a Republican won a House seat in Arkansas 60-40. The reason I say that is it was held by a term-limited Democrat, then won by a Republican who died before the election last year. That puts the Arkansas House at 54-45 with one vacancy (a Dem seat).

I would say is a GOP 'hold' of a posthumous pickup.  According to left-leaning blog sources from Arkansas quoted by the Swing State Project, the race has become extremely negative, as Garland County (Hot Spring)'s GOP Committee was sending mailers attacking the Dem candidate Jerry Rephan as a "pro-abortion Jewish" while advocating for the candidacy of the "Christian" GOP candidate Bruce Cozart. 

While the Dem seemed to be at least a semi-serious candidate judging by the presence of a more sophisticated campaign website compared to Cozart's profile under Garland County's GOP Committee website; I must grudging agree that the attack mailer is a masterstroke by the GOP, as it seems to appeal to demographic affinity if not the strong pro-life sentiment of the district.   

From my limited knowledge on the district, Arkansas' HD-24 is anchored at Hot Springs, and that area seems to be pretty homogeneous (majority-white) and heavily Christian (or even evangelical); making a liberal, Jewish-sounding Dem candidate really unappealing to the locals.  In low information local (and rural) campaigns like this and Louisiana's SD-26 special a few weekends ago, tarring an opponent to something foreign to the local traditions or someone unpopular with them is a highly effective campaign tatic.  IMHO, it is also an extremely deplorable use of the us-vs-them mentality in electoral politics.

[Lunar]

Another NY State Senator who opposed same-sex marriage has popped:

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2011/03/kruger-to-turn-himself-in/

some potential replacements:
http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3752795819/after-carl-state-senator-alec-brook-krasny
http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/post/3756113800/one-fugly-district

[Lunar]

If you're counting, that leaves only one left: http://209.98.77.34/albanyproject/diary/9281/hey-remember-the-four-amigos

[Holmes]

Ugh, I hate Diaz. And you know he'll somehow outlast everyone.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Sounds like the Russian guy is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination. He voted for gay marriage in 2009, so I guess he's good? I'm a little surprised, considering how homophobic the former Soviet bloc is.

[Sam Spade]

Sounds like the Russian guy is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination. He voted for gay marriage in 2009, so I guess he's good? I'm a little surprised, considering how homophobic the former Soviet bloc is.

The Russians in that area of Brooklyn are not any better.

I have to wonder looking at the map - did McCain actually win that SD?  Not that this matters at all in this area of the world (and I really, really mean that).

[Lunar]

I'll have to check re: McCain.

And yeah, you can see his district was carved out to help Marty Golden, so it's not exactly a GOP district.  I think the GOP could still have a hope to win a special election here though if another major Democrat petitions to get into the race on a 3rd-line?

[Lunar]

 45% Obama

[Sam Spade]

45% Obama

That's what I thought.  Golden's SD is probably stronger Obama.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

2008 results by Senate district.

[Senator Napoleon]

Isn't Kruger's district very east European and conservative Jewish? It would make sense for Obama to lose there. I'm still shocked at how well Republicans manage to do at the State Senate level in New York, it seems that there is no real reason for it. It can't just be gerrymandering because there is too much ticket-splitting going on.

[Lunar]

Isn't Kruger's district very east European and conservative Jewish?

Yup.

[Sibboleth]

Nice site Lunar.

[Lunar]

Nice site Lunar.

hey, at the time it was the only site available with the info (I looked, trust me).

[Lunar]

fun Carl Kruger picture, considering he voted against gay marriage:

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And it comes out (no pun intended) that he's actually a closet case. Surprise surprise.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

LOL. I think I should post this again in honor of him:

Screw your wife in the behind
Tell your kids you're doing fine
Goddamn no good stupid liar
Sucking dick your pants on fire

HOMOSEXUAL - up the ass
HOMOSEXUAL - make it last
HOMOSEXUAL - jerk me off
HOMOSEXUAL - go get lost!

Found out that your dad was gay
Living life a brand new way
John Lennon was a queer
He screwed Brian up the rear

HOMOSEXUAL - I'm one too
HOMOSEXUAL - so are you
HOMOSEXUAL - kill Dan White!
HOMOSEXUAL - was it right?

Don't like boys, you like girls
Living in your faggot world
Talking shop with lawyers' wifes
Sneaking out to meet the guys

HOMOSEXUAL - I'm ashamed
HOMOSEXUAL - that's your game
HOMOSEXUAL - where's the blame
HOMOSEXUAL - I can't explain

HOMOSEXUAL - we love you
HOMOSEXUAL - up the ass!
HOMOSEXUAL - Darby Crash
HOMOSEXUAL - make it last

[Lunar]

[Sibboleth]

Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.