Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Kevinstat]

Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, in the current Speaker's district apparently.

Source: Blue Hampshire

[Former Moderate]

Massachusetts is having a special election for the 12th Bristol seat, vacated by former Rep. Stephen R. Canessa. It's a gerrymandered abomination created for the sole benefit of Canessa, consisting of incredibly Republican territory in the north (65–70% Brown) and incredibly Democratic territory in the south (59% Coakley). Why, just look at the ugly little beast:



The Mass GOP thinks they have a chance here with low turnout in the New Bedford slugs, especially since Democrats have a weak slate without a candidate from that area. Former State Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) predicts a GOP pickup.

Primary: August 23
General: Sept. 20

If the GOP can win this seat, their prospects for holding it post-redistricting are good. New Bedford is currently split amongst 4 state legislative districts, but that cannot continue -- realistically, it should only support 2. The town actually lost population while the more Republican areas surrounding it grew, so trends here are actually good for Republicans. Already, House redistricting chair Rep. Michael Moran is saying the district cannot sustain its current six-town composition, regardless of who wins. (State redistricting law mandates towns not be divided between districts unless absolutely necessary.)

[Gravis Marketing]

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

[Former Moderate]

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

Ah. Okay, so, I messed up the timeline a bit -- Canessa came along in 2004, not 2002.

In 2002, Mark A. Howland (D-Freetown) won the general election, after beating incumbent Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) in the primary. Howland lost a primary to Canessa in 2004, and then lost a general election race to him as an Independent in 2006.

General Election Results
2002: Mark A. Howland (D), unopposed
2004: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2006: Stephen R. Canessa (D), 69%; Mark A. Howland (I) 31%
2008: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2010: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dems picked up another seat in the New Hampshire House.

[Kevinstat]

Dem Hold in Maine House District 121 (most (population-wise) of Cape Elizabeth), 1,340 votes (53.51%) to 1,164 (46.49%).  Narrower than in 2010 (when the two-term Democratic inbumbent, who won a special State Senate election this spring, won 58.35% to 41.65%), but the Republicans had a strong candidate this time and they probably hadn't put much effort in in 2010.  Cape Elizabeth is rather strongly Democratic nowadays (it wasn't in the 1990s and definitely not in the 1980s).

[Gravis Marketing]

This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg

[Former Moderate]

This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg

There will be a special election, but it will be scheduled for the same day as the Nov. general election.

Safe R anyway, barring a tectonic anti-GOP wave this November.

[So the Heroes Fall]

The seat doesn't look THAT safe unless I drew it wrong in DRA (likely) or it changed significantly in redistricting (also likely).

[Keystone Phil]

Great comment, BRTD. "It doesn't look that way...unless I'm wrong (likely) or wrong (likely)."

[So the Heroes Fall]

My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.

[Former Moderate]

My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.

Republicans have a phenomenal Burlington County machine, Democrats don't. It's the reason why the county is entirely dominated by Republicans at the local/county level.

The 8th District redraw is ... weird, to say the least. It keeps the strongly performing GOP territory in Burlington (District 7 has the Democratic half of Burlington), while adding a sole town in Atlantic, and a couple ugly bits of Camden County.

Doing the math:
Parts of old District 8: 175,825
Hammonton (Atlantic Co., 55% McCain): 14,791
Camden County (58% Obama): 28,482

Democrats never got more than 39% of the vote in the old District 8, even when a party-switching incumbent Senator was running for re-election. If they couldn't get to 40% in the old district, I just don't see how they'll ever get to 50% in the new one.

[Former Moderate]

I think I need to do a district-by-district analysis of the NJ map. We're only a few months out from the election, and these things could use some handicapping.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Minnesota has two specials upcoming. I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me. She's been in office since 1981 yet resigned to take a position as health care policy director for Hennepin County. I wasn't really fond of her to be honest even though I did vote for her last year so I'm pleased her replacement will almost certainly be more liberal.

The other open seat is the 46th, vacant after the death of incumbent Linda Scheid in June to ovarian cancer.

My own district, the 61st is so safe DFL there's no point in assigning a PVI to it or anything, it's an 80%+ Dayton seat, his best in the state. Needless to say the special won't be interesting. The primary probably won't be either as the State Rep for half the seat Jeff Hayden is running, and I believe he'll be the only black state senator if elected. Hayden's opposition consists of a guy who ran on the IP ticket for State House last year and some random other people. I won't pledge to voting for Hayden if I end up liking one of the others (at least one has a pretty impressive resume I'll admit), but it would be an odd situation if he doesn't win. Of course the other candidates running are opening themselves up to the election for Hayden's House seat so it's not a waste (I don't live in that one so I can't vote in that election.) More info here: http://politicsinminnesota.com/2011/08/all-eyes-on-the-primary-six-dfl-challengers-are-vying-for-a-mpls-senate-sea

The 46th, in the immediate northern suburbs isn't quite as safe but is still a Dayton >50% seat, so it would be a massive upset if it flipped. Only two DFL candidates, the DFL endorsee is an RN and union activist Chris Eaton, also the wife of the mayor of Brooklyn Center. The other candidate is Timothy Davis Sr. who I can't find any real info on, so he's probably just an odd ballot-space wanter. So neither one will be too interesting. I do want to observe the patterns though!

Primaries on September 13, special on October 18.

[Bacon King]

I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me.

Don't sweat it. Last year, I didn't find out until I read it on the forum that my State Rep in New Orleans had switched parties; my response even got goldmined.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Yeah, I just tend to not pay much attention to local politics in odd-numbered years. At least I'm inspired to catch up a bit on local political blogs.

[Meeker]

Does anyone know anything about the six special elections for the NY Assembly happening tomorrow?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is my update on DKE:

Along with Tuesday's special election in NY-09, there are six special elections to the New York Assembly. All six were previously held by Democrats. Here's the rundown:

• AD-23: This seat is in Queens; the candidates are Phillip Golfelder (D/WF/IP), who has worked for the city council and the mayor's office, and Jane Deacy (R/Cons), a retired NYPD officer. This seat went 67-33 for the old incumbent in 2010.

• AD-27: This seat is also in Queens; the candidates are Michael Simanowitz (D/WF/IP), who was the retiring incumbent's chief of staff, Marco Desena (R/Cons), a consultant and adjunct college professor, and Justin Jacobs (New Yorkers for Reform), a nonprofit CEO. The past incumbent was unopposed in 2010.

• AD-54: This seat in Brooklyn has become something of a circus. The former incumbent is Darryl Towns, son of Rep. Ed Towns. Democrats nominated Rafael Espinal, chief of staff for an NYC Council member; he also got the nominations of the Republican and Conservative Parties (along with something called United We Can). The Working Families Party was unhappy with this, I guess, so they nominated Jesus Gonzalez, a community organizer. Not content to make this a bland two-way race, Darryl Towns' sister, Deidra Towns, jumped into the race on the Community First ticket.

• AD-73: This one's in Manhattan. The candidates are both attorneys, Dan Quart (D/WF) and Paul Niehaus (R/IP). The previous incumbent in 2010 won 65-33.

• AD-116: And now we're outside New York City: This district is based in Utica. Candidates here are attorney Anthony Brindisi (D/WF/IP) and Marcy Town Council member Gregory Johnson (R/Cons). The former incumbent won 60-40 here in 2010.

• AD-144: Finally, we have a district in northwest Buffalo and Grand Island. The candidates are attorney Sean Ryan (D/WF), Sean Kipp (R/Cons), and small businessman Gregory Horn (G). The prior incumbent here won 53-27-20 in 2010 (against separate Republican and Conservative Party nominees).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

[rbt48]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

[So the Heroes Fall]

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue = solid Hayden
Red = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

Special obviously won't be interesting, though the primary for Hayden's House seat probably will be.

Oh in the other seat the DFL endorsed candidate won with something like 88% against a nobody, and the GOP endorsed candidate got around 85% against one of those Ron Paul nerds. DFL primary had about twice as many votes.

[Kevinstat]

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.

[So the Heroes Fall]

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

Ah yes. Totally correct.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

Yes, and also Somali. Which is actually a pretty interesting pattern. In 2010 Warfa ran for State House under the Independence Party ticket. He got 11.53% (DFL incumbent was reelected with 78.48%), but note the results in precinct 9-11. This was a 95.43% Obama precinct and gave Dayton 91.20% the same year:

Independence    SADIK WARFA    71   45.22   
Republican    NICHOLAS SKRIVANEK    4   2.55   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KAREN CLARK    82   52.23   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    0   0.00

So it's obvious where Warfa's support base is coming from (by the way his campaign was little more than platitudes like "Better schools!" and "more jobs!")

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.

No, the seat he ran in is the other one which I live in, 61A. Kristian Heuer by the way has already announced for Hayden's House seat, but he only got 2% in this primary.

[BigSkyBob]

Iowa democratic State Senator resigns to take position in Branstad administration.

http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/branstad%E2%80%99s-appointment-of-dandekar-puts-iowa-senate-in-play/


The chamber is, now, 25D-24R. If the Republicans win, it's a tie. This will be the second special election for control of a state Senate this cycle.

[Vasall des Midas]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?