Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:59:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29
Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 154321 times)
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #600 on: May 17, 2011, 08:11:29 PM »
« edited: May 17, 2011, 08:14:10 PM by Kevinstat »

Democratic pickup in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, in the current Speaker's district apparently.

Source: Blue Hampshire
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #601 on: August 01, 2011, 11:01:33 AM »

Massachusetts is having a special election for the 12th Bristol seat, vacated by former Rep. Stephen R. Canessa. It's a gerrymandered abomination created for the sole benefit of Canessa, consisting of incredibly Republican territory in the north (65–70% Brown) and incredibly Democratic territory in the south (59% Coakley). Why, just look at the ugly little beast:



The Mass GOP thinks they have a chance here with low turnout in the New Bedford slugs, especially since Democrats have a weak slate without a candidate from that area. Former State Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) predicts a GOP pickup.

Primary: August 23
General: Sept. 20

If the GOP can win this seat, their prospects for holding it post-redistricting are good. New Bedford is currently split amongst 4 state legislative districts, but that cannot continue -- realistically, it should only support 2. The town actually lost population while the more Republican areas surrounding it grew, so trends here are actually good for Republicans. Already, House redistricting chair Rep. Michael Moran is saying the district cannot sustain its current six-town composition, regardless of who wins. (State redistricting law mandates towns not be divided between districts unless absolutely necessary.)
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #602 on: August 02, 2011, 12:54:35 PM »

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #603 on: August 02, 2011, 01:19:32 PM »

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

Ah. Okay, so, I messed up the timeline a bit -- Canessa came along in 2004, not 2002.

In 2002, Mark A. Howland (D-Freetown) won the general election, after beating incumbent Rep. George Rogers (D-New Bedford) in the primary. Howland lost a primary to Canessa in 2004, and then lost a general election race to him as an Independent in 2006.

General Election Results
2002: Mark A. Howland (D), unopposed
2004: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2006: Stephen R. Canessa (D), 69%; Mark A. Howland (I) 31%
2008: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
2010: Stephen R. Canessa (D), unopposed
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #604 on: August 09, 2011, 07:30:13 PM »

Dems picked up another seat in the New Hampshire House.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #605 on: August 16, 2011, 10:55:38 PM »

Dem Hold in Maine House District 121 (most (population-wise) of Cape Elizabeth), 1,340 votes (53.51%) to 1,164 (46.49%).  Narrower than in 2010 (when the two-term Democratic inbumbent, who won a special State Senate election this spring, won 58.35% to 41.65%), but the Republicans had a strong candidate this time and they probably hadn't put much effort in in 2010.  Cape Elizabeth is rather strongly Democratic nowadays (it wasn't in the 1990s and definitely not in the 1980s).
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #606 on: August 23, 2011, 07:54:16 AM »

This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #607 on: August 23, 2011, 02:10:04 PM »


There will be a special election, but it will be scheduled for the same day as the Nov. general election.

Safe R anyway, barring a tectonic anti-GOP wave this November.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #608 on: August 23, 2011, 10:22:53 PM »

The seat doesn't look THAT safe unless I drew it wrong in DRA (likely) or it changed significantly in redistricting (also likely).
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #609 on: August 23, 2011, 10:26:13 PM »

Great comment, BRTD. "It doesn't look that way...unless I'm wrong (likely) or wrong (likely)."
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #610 on: August 23, 2011, 11:44:45 PM »

My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #611 on: August 24, 2011, 01:17:33 AM »

My attempt at drawing the district in DRA based on the map on wikipedia has it as a 54% Obama and 50/50 average district. Now matching maps with NJ precincts is tough, and I don't know how it changed in redistricting, but I am interested in the numbers on the current seat.

Republicans have a phenomenal Burlington County machine, Democrats don't. It's the reason why the county is entirely dominated by Republicans at the local/county level.

The 8th District redraw is ... weird, to say the least. It keeps the strongly performing GOP territory in Burlington (District 7 has the Democratic half of Burlington), while adding a sole town in Atlantic, and a couple ugly bits of Camden County.

Doing the math:
Parts of old District 8: 175,825
Hammonton (Atlantic Co., 55% McCain): 14,791
Camden County (58% Obama): 28,482

Democrats never got more than 39% of the vote in the old District 8, even when a party-switching incumbent Senator was running for re-election. If they couldn't get to 40% in the old district, I just don't see how they'll ever get to 50% in the new one.
Logged
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,431
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #612 on: August 24, 2011, 01:35:16 PM »

I think I need to do a district-by-district analysis of the NJ map. We're only a few months out from the election, and these things could use some handicapping.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #613 on: August 31, 2011, 09:36:24 PM »

Minnesota has two specials upcoming. I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me. She's been in office since 1981 yet resigned to take a position as health care policy director for Hennepin County. I wasn't really fond of her to be honest even though I did vote for her last year so I'm pleased her replacement will almost certainly be more liberal.

The other open seat is the 46th, vacant after the death of incumbent Linda Scheid in June to ovarian cancer.

My own district, the 61st is so safe DFL there's no point in assigning a PVI to it or anything, it's an 80%+ Dayton seat, his best in the state. Needless to say the special won't be interesting. The primary probably won't be either as the State Rep for half the seat Jeff Hayden is running, and I believe he'll be the only black state senator if elected. Hayden's opposition consists of a guy who ran on the IP ticket for State House last year and some random other people. I won't pledge to voting for Hayden if I end up liking one of the others (at least one has a pretty impressive resume I'll admit), but it would be an odd situation if he doesn't win. Of course the other candidates running are opening themselves up to the election for Hayden's House seat so it's not a waste (I don't live in that one so I can't vote in that election.) More info here: http://politicsinminnesota.com/2011/08/all-eyes-on-the-primary-six-dfl-challengers-are-vying-for-a-mpls-senate-sea

The 46th, in the immediate northern suburbs isn't quite as safe but is still a Dayton >50% seat, so it would be a massive upset if it flipped. Only two DFL candidates, the DFL endorsee is an RN and union activist Chris Eaton, also the wife of the mayor of Brooklyn Center. The other candidate is Timothy Davis Sr. who I can't find any real info on, so he's probably just an odd ballot-space wanter. So neither one will be too interesting. I do want to observe the patterns though!

Primaries on September 13, special on October 18.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #614 on: August 31, 2011, 09:56:16 PM »

I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me.

Don't sweat it. Last year, I didn't find out until I read it on the forum that my State Rep in New Orleans had switched parties; my response even got goldmined.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #615 on: August 31, 2011, 09:58:59 PM »

Yeah, I just tend to not pay much attention to local politics in odd-numbered years. At least I'm inspired to catch up a bit on local political blogs.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #616 on: September 12, 2011, 11:51:01 AM »

Does anyone know anything about the six special elections for the NY Assembly happening tomorrow?
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #617 on: September 12, 2011, 06:05:33 PM »

This is my update on DKE:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #618 on: September 12, 2011, 08:30:49 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2011, 08:33:28 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Logged
rbt48
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,060


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #619 on: September 12, 2011, 09:01:35 PM »

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #620 on: September 13, 2011, 11:49:39 PM »
« Edited: September 13, 2011, 11:53:46 PM by As Afterwards The Words Still Ring »

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue = solid Hayden
Red = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

Special obviously won't be interesting, though the primary for Hayden's House seat probably will be.

Oh in the other seat the DFL endorsed candidate won with something like 88% against a nobody, and the GOP endorsed candidate got around 85% against one of those Ron Paul nerds. DFL primary had about twice as many votes.
Logged
Kevinstat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,823


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #621 on: September 14, 2011, 07:31:15 PM »

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #622 on: September 14, 2011, 09:44:02 PM »

These results in my Senate district ARE interesting. Or rather the breakdown:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20110913/Cross_PLD.asp?M=LG&LD=61



Blue Red = solid Hayden
Red Blue = solid Warfa
Green = not really strong for anyone

Correct?  I can't see how Hayden would have won by 2 to 1 (2.04 to 1, to be more precise) otherwise.

Ah yes. Totally correct.

The Hayden precincts have an >50% white VAP but just barely (50.8%), and are 17% black and 23.4% Hispanic. The green ones are 48.1% white/22.3% black/20.2% Hispanic VAP. The blue ones are 29% white/36.9% black/24.4% Hispanic VAP. Hayden is black by the way.

This seems to back that up, at least about the red precincts being the solid Hayden ones.  Is Warfa black, too?

Yes, and also Somali. Which is actually a pretty interesting pattern. In 2010 Warfa ran for State House under the Independence Party ticket. He got 11.53% (DFL incumbent was reelected with 78.48%), but note the results in precinct 9-11. This was a 95.43% Obama precinct and gave Dayton 91.20% the same year:

Independence    SADIK WARFA    71   45.22   
Republican    NICHOLAS SKRIVANEK    4   2.55   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KAREN CLARK    82   52.23   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    0   0.00

So it's obvious where Warfa's support base is coming from (by the way his campaign was little more than platitudes like "Better schools!" and "more jobs!")

The border between those two blue precincts on the west edge that goes through the entire district is the border between the two State House districts. You can probably guess which is Hayden's.

It depends on the answer to my first question.

Does Warfa live in Hayden's House district?  It sounded from your earlier post that most of Hayden's challengers did.  I imagine someone who didn't run for the Senate seat would get Hayden's backing for his House seat, although you never know.

No, the seat he ran in is the other one which I live in, 61A. Kristian Heuer by the way has already announced for Hayden's House seat, but he only got 2% in this primary.
Logged
BigSkyBob
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,531


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #623 on: September 16, 2011, 08:35:34 PM »

Iowa democratic State Senator resigns to take position in Branstad administration.

http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/branstad%E2%80%99s-appointment-of-dandekar-puts-iowa-senate-in-play/


The chamber is, now, 25D-24R. If the Republicans win, it's a tie. This will be the second special election for control of a state Senate this cycle.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #624 on: September 17, 2011, 06:32:10 AM »

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.
Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.
71-21-8.
It was described as safe Democratic in some writeup I found... wonder what happened here in 2010? Huh Was the guy on the Conservative line actually a renegade Democrat?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 20 21 22 23 24 [25] 26 27 28 29  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.078 seconds with 13 queries.