Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Sibboleth]

Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...

[Sam Spade]

Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...

The whole, relatively fresh horror of that experience is part of the reason why I can never put any faith or confidence in BRTD's hope, though national numbers would so suggest otherwise. 

After all, the Independent Democratic Conference is still alive and well, and working with Republicans, and waiting to exact tribute from whoever wants control if the Republicans fall to 31 or under again.  And isn't Mr. Incompetent John Sampson still in control of the Democrats?  And isn't Ruben Diaz still around, looking to cause any trouble he can?

[So the Heroes Fall]

Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?

I understand it is basically carved up, the Dem parts given to neighboring Dem incumbents, some of the Republican parts used to shore up the other remaining Republican in Brooklyn, and the Orthodox parts used to create what Sam is calling "the NY Jew seat". Of course that new seat probably votes Republican and even though it might not I'd honestly rather have a "normal" Republican than someone like Dov Hikind.

[Sam Spade]

Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?

I understand it is basically carved up, the Dem parts given to neighboring Dem incumbents, some of the Republican parts used to shore up the other remaining Republican in Brooklyn, and the Orthodox parts used to create what Sam is calling "the NY Jew seat". Of course that new seat probably votes Republican and even though it might not I'd honestly rather have a "normal" Republican than someone like Dov Hikind.

Pretty much right on what happened - even though a little bit of it goes to try and make Addabo a bit more marginal.  Storobin has said that he will run in the new seat.  So has Fidler, though that may well be a bluff after this result.

[rbt48]

Oklahoma House District 71 stays Republican by one vote in a recount:  http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20120411_11_0_Arecou120758

[Keystone Phil]

Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.

[rbt48]

Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.

How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?

[So the Heroes Fall]

The DFL held that seat I mentioned earlier:

Independence    LEON GREENSLIT    364   5.06   
Republican    GREGG KULBERG    2912   40.48   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    LYLE KOENEN    3914   54.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    3   0.04

Of course, we'll have to see which new seat Koenen runs in and all. All are less favorable.

[krazen1211]

Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.

How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?

The 169th district is inside Philadelphia; and was held by a long term GOP incumbent.

The Lehigh Valley seat was won by Obama 50-48, but the GOP just got 60% there.

[smoltchanov]

The 169th district is inside Philadelphia; and was held by a long term GOP incumbent.

The Lehigh Valley seat was won by Obama 50-48, but the GOP just got 60% there.

That doesn't mean that Obama can't win it again in November)))

[Keystone Phil]

Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.

How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?

The Democrat was a top union official. They had a ton of money and an army. The GOP candidate wasn't weak. Believe me.

It's a swing district but I wouldn't say that this is troubling for the party statewide. The union the candidate was connected to made this their priority and their turnout machine was too big to overcome. That and the fact that they had a barrage of attacks/lies against the Republican nominee in the final days.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Hmmm, this is only about a 52% Obama district. I'm surprised such a district exists in Philly since the McCain precincts are so spread out.

[Keystone Phil]

Hmmm, this is only about a 52% Obama district. I'm surprised such a district exists in Philly since the McCain precincts are so spread out.

Like I said, it's a swing area. A few such areas do exist in Philly.

[BigSkyBob]

Storobin ahead by 27 votes going into hand recount of ballots:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/14/david-storobin-now-leads-by-24/

[BigSkyBob]

Storobin(R) wins:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/david-storobin-wins-epic-state-senate-race/

Lightening strikes twice in Brooklyn!

[NY Jew]

anyone still not think that being in favor gay "marriage" is a loosing issue in many parts of NY.
first Weprin, and now Fidler.

lets not forget that Alsei is not running for election due to his vote.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Two upcoming ones in Minnesota, as the incumbents resigned just after being re-elected and taking office to take some cushy positions.

In 14A, which is basically the south and west of St. Cloud plus some suburbs, Steve Gottwalt, known being the main sponsor of the gay marriage amendment and being accused of covering up priest abuse in the St. Cloud Diocese while he was communications director is resigning to head some sort of radiology lobbying group in state. The district is fairly conservative (the liberals in St. Cloud live in 14B), but was still won by Romney by only about 2.5%, and Gottawalt won with a not exactly Earth shattering 54/46 margin. However it seems the likely GOP candidate will be former Rep. Dan Severson, who unsuccessfully ran against Ritchie for Sec of State in 2010. He has one primary opponent, but should win easily I'll guess. Only one Democrat has filed, who I don't know much about. I'll call it likely R.

In 19A, near my old home in Mankato, Terry Morrow is resigning to join up with some think tank in Chicago. The district is basically North Mankato, the nearby college town of St. Peter and some very conservative rural areas. Historically a swing district, but it's shifted. Obama beat Romney by 7 points there. Of course the predecessor seat voted for Emmer in 2010, but just by about a point and with 42%. Still the only Republican who's filed is the guy who lost to Walz, Allen Quist, a perennial candidate nutjob (who granted used to serve in the legislature, but hasn't for over 20 years now.) To put things into perspective, Quist says that abortion for any reason except to save the mother's life should be treated as a first degree homicide under the law, and compared gay counseling and student groups at my alma matter to letting the Ku Klux Klan set up a chapter there because both are "breeding grounds of evil". Kind of odd since it is kind of a swing seat, but you know how state legislative races go. I'm calling this safe D unless someone else gets in. There are four Democrats running so the primary later this month is the relevant race, but I don't know much about them. I should research more being so close to my old home.

[Former Moderate]

Republicans won a special election for the 12th Essex District (parts of Peabody) in Massachusetts today. The seat became open when Democratic Rep. Joyce Spiliotis died of cancer earlier this year.

Twelfth Essex
Cole (R) - 1,878
Dunne (D) - 1,805
Gravel (I) - 1,654

http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/16714/republican-cole-wins-peabody-special-state-rep-election

Leah Cole is a 24-year-old nurse with no past political experience.

[Keystone Phil]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

[Gravis Marketing]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

[Mr.Phips]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

Yeah, its was pretty much a perfect storm.  I believe that the independent who got nearly as many votes as the Dem was a Democratic town councilman in Peabody. 

[Former Moderate]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

[smoltchanov]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

Republican here is a Paulite, and, according to some sources, social conservative too. There are rather few legislative districts in Massachusetts where such positions are winning formula

[Gravis Marketing]

In Massachusetts' First Suffolk state senate district, it looks like the Dem primary was won by Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry, making her the Senate's only African-American member and first Haitian-American member if she wins the general.

This is the district that includes South Boston and was once represented by Lynch. Southie isn't large enough to control a primary any longer, nor quite so monolithic.

[Mr.Phips]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

That's not something I'd say is for sure, since this is the type of district that voted for Brown and Baker. Seats like this have a tendency to stay in Republican hands, at least until the inevitable retirement happens.

Most of the Massachussetts Republicans who have held state House and Senate seats like this were quite moderate and in the Richard Tisei/Scott Brown mold.