Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

John Kerry's percentage in 2002: 80.03%
John Kerry's percentage in 2008: 65.86%

Clearly this shows that 2008 was a much more Republican year than 2002, and that there is a solid Republican trend in Massachusetts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially considering there was a net Democratic gain of one House, and also a notable failure to take Gillibrand's.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No I was referring to NY-23. Please note the time of posting, not exactly a time I'm fully awake.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm about to have a heart attack. The inept, moribund Virginia Beach Democratic Party actually put someone up against Jeff McWaters in the 8th Senate district. He won't get anywhere near winning, but at least I have someone to vote for on January 12.

If they're that bad how they did take out Thelma Drake?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Eh, probably. It's worth noting Day appears to have little interest in the state legislature anymore, he was former Minority Leader but stepped down after the crushing of the GOP caucus in 2006. He toyed with running against Walz in 2008, but almost admitted his campaign wasn't very serious and lost the convention and didn't run in the primary. Seems rather bored with elected office now, wanting to leave is hardly surprising.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Upcoming special election in Minnesota SD26. Sen. Dick Day is resigning January 8 to lead a PAC lobbying to expand gambling allowed at the state's two horse racing tracks (I actually agree with him on this, but talk about a minor issue to resign over.) Primary will be January 12 if needed and election January 26. GOP hold is most likely but I won't rule out a pickup. Call it Lean GOP.

A local mayor (Roy Srp of Waseca, not a typo apparently) is running on the Independence Party line. Any chance of an IP pickup?

Waseca is one of the three larger towns in the district (the other two being Owatonna and Faribault), so that could be a solid plus though I don't see him having much appeal in the other two locales. Then again simply not being a Republican or Democrat would benefit someone now. I'd give him a shot if the DFL and GOP candidates suck badly. Worth noting Barkley got over 20% in the district.

The DFL does control both House seats in it, so we have no good excuse for not getting a good candidate though, I'm still hoping the GOP nominates a teabagger nutjob.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I looked up the candidates picked by the DFL and GOP. Apparently neither State Rep did run. The DFL went with Jason Engbrecht, a physics professor and Faribault school board member. The GOP went with Waseca businessman Mike Parry.

Faribault is the most Democratic of the towns in the district and not the area the DFL needs to focus on, though at least Engbrecht has the right type of last name for this seat. I should do some lit dropping my next weekend.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rhode Island House districts only average about 14,000 people per each one. Still pathetic turnout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mike Parry (GOP candidate in MN-26) may have blown it. He posted some stuff on Twitter about Obama being a "Power Hungry Arrogant Black Man" and compared the Democratic Party to pedophiles. His excuse was that those comments were "out of frustration over federal spending". Yeah exactly, that leads to racist comments easily.

Still being a special election that could help him if it encourages the crazies to turn out. Srp's chances probably went up though since he could scare away moderate Republicans to him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm beginning to think Srp's chances and IP pickup actually are pretty decent. Parry blew it as described above, and Engbrecht hasn't ran much of a campaign at all. Srp also appears to be generating more interest in his campaign stops.

This is just what I'm gathering from blogs and the local news though, I haven't stopped in the district recently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP

So this is where you live?

http://www.capitol.tn.gov/districtmaps/House83.pdf

Looks pretty awful honestly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What type of place is Virginia-8?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What type of place is Virginia-8?

Virginia Atlantic Coast from Virginia Beach to the North Carolina border.

Is it one of those districts drawn specifically to remove all the blacks?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I always figured blacks were the only reason Obama won VA-02 and Thelma Drake went down. He maximized black turnout and that helped all Democrats downballot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It also has a disgusting street grid.

Definitely.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As MN26 nears, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Srp has with a plurality the best chance of winning. Something like 40%, Parry 33%, Engbrecht 27%. Remember this is entirely poll blind.

Srp has run the best campaign by default. He's made a great argument that the district has nothing to lose by electing him since he'll be up in 2010 and they can then elect a Democrat or Republican if they want to. Engbrecht's campaign has mostly been boring, bland Democratic talking points. Parry's campaign has been nothing but shameless extremism. That'd weaken him if it were a general election and he could certainly lose if he gets in unless he tones down in November, but in a special election it might help with the crazies. Engbrecht could win on that in a two-way race, but I see moderate Republicans more likely to flee to Srp.

Ultimately though Srp could still take third if both the GOP and DFL turnout machines are big. Here's the thing though: A DFL victory in this seat requires huge turnout in Faribault, not complete destruction in Owatonna and the rurals, and a slight victory in Waseca. The first bit is up to the DFL. The second two depend on whether or not the moderate Republicans and independents decide to stick with Parry in those areas. The third depends on a DFL machine and Engbrecht keeping moderate Democrats from going to Srp in his hometown. The most likely victory for Engbrecht is probably a huge win in Faribault, a close to tie in Owatonna and the rural parts thanks to Srp siphoning lots of votes from Parry, and a narrow Srp plurality in Waseca. Parry needs Faribault not a landslide, Owatonna and the rural areas very solid and a strong showing in at least second place in Waseca. Srp just needs a huge win (possibly majority) in Waseca and a solid showing everywhere else. Look at Tim Penny's area of support in 2002 and note he was from Waseca, and you'll realize that isn't impossible.

Anyway the IP is closer to their first legitimate pickup in the legislature ever. They've had two seats in the past, one was the former Republican incumbent running for reelection though, the other was a DFL legislator in the north switching parties after being elected and didn't run for reelection.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Never mind the above. I overestimated Waseca's size. It's not big, even in relation to the district. Srp could get 50% there, but if he gets 25% in the rest of the district, that's still not even 30%.

I have to call Parry the favorite then, even if only by plurality. Coleman got 42% in the seat (about his state numbers), Mark Kennedy got 40%. That's a solid GOP base. And though Coleman basically mirrored his state numbers, Barkley got over 20%, and Franken underran. That's good news for Srp. But he needs more than a bunch of votes in Waseca. He could still pull off strong in other areas just by not being Parry or Engbrecht, but he's going to need a lot beyond Barkley's numbers (which themselves were strong) to win.

Parry can be stopped though if enough moderate Republicans in Owatonna jump ship and the DFL turnout operation in Faribault resembles that of 2004 statewide.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Weather's been absolutely miserable lately here btw. I drove through that district last night and the fog was so bad there were points where visibility was about the length of one car ahead (luckily the streets were basically empty anyway.) However forecast for Tuesday is dry, very cold (in the teens), but Minnesotans are used to that. Turnout might not be as hampered as it would've been with the weekend weather.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a good writeup: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/01/how_republican_is_minnesota_se.php

and a map: http://www.gis.leg.mn/l2002/pdf/26.pdf

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota 26 results!

Parry 55.42%
Srp 24.1%
Engbrecht 20.48%

OK, that's a very small and heavily Republican precinct. (McCain won it 65-33). But if that pattern holds could be bad news for Engbrecht...he could pull off huge numbers in Faribault though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well Engbrecht improved but based on what's in I have to call it for Parry. He only loses if Owatonna kicks his ass.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's a lot of people with weird Eastern European names in that part of the state. My mom is from a town called New Prague that is fairly close to the district, that should say something (though no one pronounces it like the Czech capital, everyone calls it "New Pray-g" instead of "New Prog")

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Final results

Mike Parry (R): 43.04%
Jason Engbrecht (DFL): 36.50%
Roy Srp (IP): 20.32%

Turnout: 27.24%

Isnt that really close to the coleman, franken, barkley results for the district?

Rather eerily:

Coleman 42.64%
Franken 35.80%
Barkley 20.67%

Especially odd as Srp had an obvious geographic base while Barkley's support was mostly evenly spread.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Map:



Don't ask me what's with that dark red township. It voted for McCain by 16 points.