Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Verily]

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

[Verily]

That's some crazy geographic polarization, Republican wins one county with over 83% and almost 90% in another, but the Democrat wins due to getting over 88% in the largest county! Wow!

The Republican even outperformed McCain in Casey County (78.55% McCain), but the Democrat outperformed Obama absurdly in Marion County (50.45% McCain, ~88% for the Democrat here). Pulaski County was also >75% McCain, but only a tiny sliver of it is in the district.

[Verily]

I predict whoever has the Independence line to prevail.

True for the first three, not true for the last. The 89th is solidly Democratic, around 60% for Obama; the Independence line makes no difference for the Republicans.

[Verily]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

[Verily]

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89, though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43.)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.

New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.

[Verily]

Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.

Seriously? I haven't been paying enough attention. Doesn't he know the Senate would just expel him again?

[Verily]

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

[Verily]

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

Mix of Asians and Hispanics. Asians (particularly South Asians) in the west and south, Hispanics (mostly Caribbeans, like in most of NYC) in the north, east and center as the neighborhood blends with Corona to the east. The Asian communities are larger in bordering Rego Park and Elmhurst but substantial in Jackson Heights as well, so it's not a huge surprise that Jackson Heights pops up on Bengali TV.

Very, very diverse and vibrant and has been for quite some time. Not impoverished for the most part, just steady middle class. Very prime location for commuting into Manhattan as there are some express subway stops in the area on multiple lines.

Also contains a substantial gay community near the subway lines, notable for being the center of the Hispanic gay community in NYC (much like Fort Greene is the center of the black gay community--a gay community on the edge of a larger ethnic enclave).

[Verily]

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?

[Verily]

Maybe, but low-turnout special elections mean nothing in this regard (especially when the result is so close to the 2010 result, would be different if Durant won 60% of the vote or something).

[Verily]

I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.

[Verily]

I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.

I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.

He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.