Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Brittain33]

That chart includes Dave Marsden's win in Virginia on Jan. 12, so it's probably as good as it gets.

[Brittain33]

Oh, I forgot to mention, the new state senator from NJ's 14th District is Tom Goodwin (R), who easily won a special election convention over former Assemblywoman Barbara Wright (R).

He'll face Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) in November.

This is the first I heard that Bill Baroni had cashed in and left the legislature. That's disappointing.

[Brittain33]

He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

You think Christie pulled him out of the legislature because he was unwhippable?

[Brittain33]

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary:

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.

[Brittain33]

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary:

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.

And back on the first hand, Lida Harkins is pissed as hell at Smulowitz for his attacking her in the primary and all but endorsing the Republican, which is going to deny him a serious slug of votes he needed to win this. Ah well.

[Brittain33]

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.

[Brittain33]

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

[Brittain33]

Brown only got 73.9% or something in Wrentham.

Lower turnout for state legislature special vs. Senate special, plus the nature of what's passed at a state level, means parochial connections count for even more than usual.

[Brittain33]

I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

[Brittain33]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

do the democrats have any chance to pick it up???

McCain beat Obama by about 30 points in these three counties, FWIW.

[Brittain33]

This is why Republicans have such trouble getting elected in Massachusetts, too, and you have selectmen from towns and random activists often running for high-level positions on behalf of the GOP.

[Brittain33]

Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.

There are enough women in the picture that it looks more like cheap Cirque du Soleil than anything gay.

Did people see that video of male gymnasts performing for the Pope that was on Youtube about two months ago?

[Brittain33]

Who was Canessa's predecessor? I remember pretty distinctly he was elected at the same time as Carl, in 2004, because he was a young vote for gay marriage replacing someone who was against it.

[Brittain33]

This is probably not leading to a special election, but, sigh, NJ...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/08/nj_legislator_resigns_over_wifes_race_rant.php?ref=fpblg

[Brittain33]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

That turnout is lower than in a 34th Middlesex primary. The Tea Party folks came out and the Dem machine didn't, it looks like. Do you know why Brunelle didn't get votes?

[Brittain33]

This is similar to Scott Brown's win. Turnout in the struggling cities in Mass. in special elections is absolutely abysmal. Brown did abnormally well in places like Lowell and Lawrence because tons of voters who come out every 4 years, didn't do so. Brown won for other reasons too, but this was part of the picture that we are also seeing here.

[Brittain33]

Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Yeah. 2010 was painful, so was 2002, but unless I lived in Mississippi I'm not going to shed tears over an historical inevitability. Sorry.

[Brittain33]

State Senate District 59
Republican    BEN SCHWANKE    824   19.28   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KARI DZIEDZIC    3393   79.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    56   1.31

*yawn*

State Representative District 61B
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    SUSAN ALLEN    1155   55.96   
Respect    NATHAN BLUMENSHINE    896   43.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    13   0.63

Good showing by Blumenshine. He actually two precincts, one in a landslide, and tied another. Unsurprisingly he did best in the white areas, Allen won the minority areas.

Is this a sign of "racially polarized voting" within the Democratic primary?

It's not a Democratic primary.

[Brittain33]

Wasn't this district one of the McCainiest in NY, beating out most R-held districts?

[Brittain33]

This was apparently a big upset. The Independent candidate said he had no regrets. Any chance he runs again in 2014? The Dem already said she'll be back for a rematch.

If he does, either he or the Dem will win. 16,000 votes were cast in this district in the last off-year election so I'm guessing that the 24-year-old R nurse won't be able to get enough to win even if the Dems split their votes cleanly down the middle.

[Brittain33]

In Massachusetts' First Suffolk state senate district, it looks like the Dem primary was won by Rep. Linda Dorcena Forry, making her the Senate's only African-American member and first Haitian-American member if she wins the general.

This is the district that includes South Boston and was once represented by Lynch. Southie isn't large enough to control a primary any longer, nor quite so monolithic.