Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

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Ty Cobb?

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Maybe "Ty Cobb" is just a very common name in the US.

I've never met anyone who went by the name "Ty" or had the last name "Cobb".

Of course, the one Ty Cobb we all know is this one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ty_Cobb

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661 votes? For a State Senate election?

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Orange County - Assembly District 72

100.00% (197 of 197) precincts partially or fully reporting as of Jan 12, 2010, 10:35 p.m.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Chris Norby (Rep)	20,292	62.88%
John MacMurray (Dem)	10,018	31.04%
Jane Rands (Grn)	1,963	6.08%

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Yes.

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Thanks!

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Quite pixellated.

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I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...

If Sam Spade isn't sure what's going on, then it's time to tell.

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(wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?)

Lee County, Arkansas and Lee County, South Carolina are also majority black.

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Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

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So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

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Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

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Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.

Laird's running for State Senate. The nominee for Lieutenant Governor will almost certainly be Gavin Newsom.

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Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Is that so? That's rather interesting. Saratoga and Los Gatos both have sizable Asian populations.

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Monterey County being a VRA county, the courts can and have stayed the election.

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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

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So I'm at Laird's Santa Clara County office doing clerical work.

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That seat looks rather gerrymandered.

Yes. It's a good thing this is going to be the last election it sees.

Lots of mail voting here. The failure to carry Santa Clara doesn't bode well for us. There's about an equall number of precincts out between Democratic Santa Cruz and Monterey and Republican San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara. Blakeslee will be riding up right near that 50% mark.

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Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

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Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

There was no crossover vote. The issue was turnout. I recieved information in the evening that Republicans voted by mail at a rate of approximately 4% more than Democrats, which would imply that there was very little crossover on either side. Of course Laird needs to win Santa Clara County to stand a chance in the runoff, but his disadvantage is a structural one, stemming from the fact that this is the least Democratic part of the county, and that low-turnout elections (as state legislative special elections are bound to be) favor Republicans.

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?

To the best of my knowledge, yes.

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I'm pretty surprised Blakeslee did so well in Santa Barbara. Granted, I don't know too much about Santa Barbara, let alone what part of it is in the district. Though, Laird definitely needs to perform better in Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Monterey to win in August.

Also, I hope those three can be redistricted out of the wretched SoCal next year.

It's just northern Santa Barbara that's in this district (the area around Santa Maria, where Maldonado's from). Santa Barbara iself is outside the district, just like Santa Cruz.

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I believe there's a televised debate today or tomorrow.

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Great news, Alvin Greene is back:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101227/ap_on_re_us/us_sc_house_greene

He's running for a South Carolina House seat that opened up because the incumbent died.

Is it a Dem one? If so, HELL YES!

Yeah, it is.