Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[jimrtex]

Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

[jimrtex]

Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.

In addition only one candidate filed in HD 100, so that special is also cancelled.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

[jimrtex]

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?

No write-ins in Texas primaries except for party offices.

Candidates in the special election:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district. 

About 1/3 of the district is new since he last ran in 1998 (for a 1999-2003 term).  The district used to wrap around to the west of Fort Worth, and was shifted to include Ellis County, and the more populous northern part of Johnson County.  41% of the district is in the DFW southern suburbs (Ellis, Johnson, Hood); 31% is in McLennan (Waco); 28% in the rest of the district (Coryell, Navarro, Hill, Falls, Bosque, Somervell).

In a special election, Sibley will have an advantage being from Waco, since the Waco newspaper and TV/radio stations will cover the election, and there is a feeling that Waco deserves a senator.  The special election is on the spring uniform election date, so there will be other city and school board elections, but these all cover small areas and they are unlikely to be be hotly contested.  The Fort Worth Startlegram and Dallas Morning News will cover the election peripherally, as will the TV and radio stations, since it is at best 10% of their immediate coverage area.

Sibley has the endorsement of Rep. Joe Barton, whose district includes Ellis and Navarro, and would be known in Johnson, and George W Bush who was governor when Sibley was senator.  He has the negative of having been a lobbyist in Austin for the past 8 years, and he took a homestead exemption for a house in Travis County.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.  He lost the primary with 40% of the vote, which is probably a little better than he would have done had Averitt actually campaigned.  Averitt probably got a lot of the vote in the primary from name recognition of voters who were voting in the gubernatorial race, including crossovers and independents.  Turnout in the Republican Primary in the district was 5.7 times that as Democrats, vs. 2.2 statewide.  Yancy is the only candidate supporting Nullification.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.  He is a just-retiring law professor at Baylor (in Waco).   He says he would be like W.R.Poage who was a congressman from 1937-1979.  He will be going against Sibley in McLennan County, so voters who want a senator from Waco will vote for Sibley.  And there won't necessarily be voters who turn out to vote a straight Democratic ticket, since this will be the only partisan race on the ballot.

The winner has to have a majority, with a runoff in June if there isn't a majority, though it is not unknown for a runner-up to withdraw. 

If I understand the election code, the replacements for the general election don't have to be named until late August.  The Republicans will probably go with the winner of the special election.  The decisions is made by the county chairs of the 10 counties, so if it were a totally free vote, Sibley might have an advantage.  The Democrats will pick whoever is willing to run, so unless Avant gets 15% of the vote in the special election, it is probably his for the asking.  It doesn't matter, since the district was 68% McCain, and Republicans will be pushing turnout to defeat Edwards.

[jimrtex]

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).

Birdwell has just got a declaratory judgment that he has been a Texas resident since 1973.

[jimrtex]

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

Hodge was just sentenced today to one year for not reporting $74,000 in income (from kickbacks/bribes).  Others involved in the case have received terms of up to 14 years.

[jimrtex]

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

[jimrtex]

Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

Yes.  Schwarzenegger had to nominate him a second time.

[jimrtex]

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?

In 2002 it was an equal 40:40 registration, and Gore only carried it by 1.5%.

SLO had a 7% R advantage.

Sta Clara 5% R (its just the western and southern fringes - Saratoga, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill)

Monterey 7% D (vs, 12% D in the rest of the county, it leaves out the Salinas Valley)

Sta Barbara 3% R (vs. 6% D in the rest of the county) it is the area around Santa Maria and not Santa Barbara city.

Sta Cruz 19% D (but vs 33% D in the rest of the county) and it is only about 12% of the district.

Not only did Maldonado win in 2008, the Democrats didn't put up an opponent.  Maldonado actually tried to get the Democrat nomination as a write-in.

[jimrtex]

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?

With one precinct still out:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The other counties were in the 5.0% range.  More votes were cast in Hood County than in either Johnson and Ellis County, though they have 2-1/2 to 3 times the population.

Birdwell and Sibley will face off in a runoff, which will be sometime in early June (the governor can pick the date).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.

5.18%  His supporters will likely go for Birdwell.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.

13.24%.  He did quite a bit better in election day voting, than in early voting (11.7% vs 14.5%) so it may have been voters who were voting in a school or city election, and saw that he was a Democrat.  They will be less likely to show up to vote in an election between two Republicans.  

Since an issue raised in the campaign was Sibley's contributions to Democrats, he can't visibly be seen accepting support from Democrats.  If Birdwell can push turnout in other areas especially in the DFW area, he can probably be able to win the runoff.

[jimrtex]

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.

It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049

[jimrtex]

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.

It turns out that the loser in the primary runoff did not withdraw in time to be removed from the special election ballot.  The SOS office apparently did not realize this and did not show the special election on their web site.

She won the special election on very light (3.1%) turnout.

Primary:

Mabrie Jackson 5616
Van Taylor 4581
Wayne Richard 3485

Primary runoff:

Van Taylor 4954
Mabrie Jackson 3541

Special:

Mabrie Jackson 1353
Van Taylor 1049

Wow!  While I find it unfortunate that the Secretary of State's Office did not list a special election on their web site (while they presumably did for the SD22 special election also held yesterday (Saturday)), and media coverage of the election might also have been poor, outcomes like this are part of what makes electoral politics fun for me.  Will the Legislature be in session between now and the inaugaration of the Legislators elected to full terms next year?  Or will Jackson likely never cast a vote in the partial term she was just elected to?

It gets even curiouser!

The Secretary of State had cancelled the election and declared Taylor elected, which is why the HD 66 results were not on the SOS web site.  Taylor may have even been sworn in.
He is shown as a representative on the House of Representatives website.

In 2001, the Texas Constitution was amended to permit the legislature to provide for filling legislative vacancies when only one candidate has declared their candidacy.  To that end, they moved the filing date for write-in candidates in special elections to be the same as for on-ballot candidates.  Since a declared write-in candidate is "a candidate" this would avoid a problem with someone filing at the last minute and forcing an election.  And for most elections, the last date for withdrawal is within a week or so of the filing date.  So it is relatively easy to determine that there is only one candidate who has filed, since any withdrawals will have occurred before ballots are printed, or arrangements for polling places, etc. have been finalized.

For legislative races, candidates file with the Secretary of State, who in turn notifies the counties of the candidates, even if the district is within a single county.   So in this case, the governor proclaimed the election, and the SOS then notified Collin County about the election they would have to conduct.  The SOS would also notify the county of the candidates who had filed.

This particular election was conducted on an extremely short cycle, with the proclamation on April 2, and the uniform election date 36 days later (this is the absolute minimum time interval).  When there is such as short cycle, the withdrawal date is two days before early voting, which began on April 26.  And Jackson did withdraw before April 24, since the SOS cancelled the election on April 19.

When a candidate withdraws, their name is left off the ballot.  And in most elections this is no problem since the withdrawal deadline is so early, that rather than removing their name, it is actually a case of not printing their name.  But in this case, it may not have been practical.  Or it might be that they were told not to bother because the election was cancelled.  In any case, the ballots had been printed, because the votes show up on the Collin County elections website.

There is a similar provision when a candidate who qualifies for a runoff withdraws.  But again that withdrawal must occur within days of the first election, so that it permits the runoff to be cancelled before much effort has been made to arrange for it.

The law permitting cancellation of a special legislative election is written in an odd way.  It is actually framed more in terms of the conditions that would be needed for a school district or small town election to be cancelled - that all candidates for all offices are unopposed, and that there are no propositions on the ballot.  I am pretty sure the language was copied from that for other local elections.

So I don't think the special election should have been cancelled, but it was similar to a runoff election (Taylor and Jackson had been in the primary runoff, which was after the filing deadline for the special election).  If there shouldn't have been a cancellation, then it is possible that the whole election was void because of confusion to voters and candidates.

But I think the withdrawal by Jackson was in time.  I think that would make her ineligible to be elected.  If she was ineligible, it would mean that there is a new vacancy (this is similar to the case when a candidate dies, and they receive the most votes).

So in either case, there is still a vacancy.  Or it might be decided that the election was properly cancelled, and the printing of ballots and counting or votes was simply a mistake.

And now, the next uniform election date is in November.  The governor may call an emergency special election, but there really is no reason to do so.  The Texas legislature only meets in regular session in odd years.  It is unlikely that there will be a special session.  Texas uses a biennial budget, and the economy was in good enough shape last year that Texas should be able to squeeze through - there are some procedures that permit adjustments so that the legislature doesn't need to meet, and the state can still have a balanced budget.  Governor Perry wouldn't want a special session.  There are some interim committee meetings, but you don't really need a full legislature for that.

Who won yesterday's SD22 special election, by the way?

I gave those results on another reply - but I messed up the quoting.  Sibley and Birdwell advance to a runoff.

Really interesting turnout, with 16% in Hood County, Birdwell's home county that went overwhelmingly for him.  Hood is the 5th most populous county in the district, but had the 2nd number of votes.

Sibley carried his home county of McLennan County by a strong share, and 8% turnout.   The rest of the district was around 5%.

Sibley was just above 50%, and the entire vote from Hood County was dumped in at one time and shifted him to just over 40%.  At that time, there were still considerable votes out in McLennan county, and Sibley eventually got it back to about 45% to 37%.

The lone Democrat received 13%, and the other Republican 5%.

Since the campaign against Sibley was that he was a lobbyist who had contributed to Democrats, he can't too visibly seek votes from Democrats.  And I doubt that Democrats would mount too active of a campaign for him.  So Sibley probably won't get too many votes from ordinary rank and file Democrats.  Birdwell has the possibility of getting a really strong get out of the vote effort for the special election.  He did well in Johnson County on low turnout.  For some reason Sibley did better in Ellis County of equally low turnout.  When Sibley was senator before, Ellis was not in the district at the time.

There is still the determination of who will fill the nomination vacancy for the full term (because of redistricting, it will actually be for 2 years, rather than 4 years).  This will be made by the county chairmen from the 10 counties in the district.  If Birdwell wins big in the runoff, I suspect that that he will be the GOP choice.  The Democrats may pass because they don't want to have Republicans turning out and voting against Chet Edwards.  If Sibley wins the runoff, he will probably be the nominee because he is the establishment candidate.

[jimrtex]

Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

If the legislature had confirmed Maldonado a week earlier, the special primary could have been held on June 8, the same day as the statewide primary.  Had Schwarzenegger waited 9 days to issue his proclamation, it would have been 180 days from November 2, and the special general could have been held then, though the special primary would still have been in the Summer (August 31).

Given all the squawking about the dates, it is pretty clear that the Democrat boys and girls at Sacramento Junior High were playing a game to keep SD 15 from being represented during the budget negotiations, and Schwarzenegger upset their plan.

Monterey County is covered by Section 5 of the VRA because in 1968 it had a voting test, and less than 50% of the adult population voted in the general election.  California until 1972 had a literacy test (in English).  But the main reason that it had less than 50% turnout in 1968 was because of Fort Ord.

As late as 1990, Fort Ord had 3% turnout, while for the rest of the county it was 40%.  During redistricting plans were made on including Fort Ord (and also Soledad Prison) in minority supervisor districts because they would bump up the total population and the minority percentage, while not actually having many voters.  The DOD encouraged military to vote in their home residences.  Fort Ord was BRAC'ed in 1994.

Because Monterey is covered by Section 5, they are quite experienced in filing with the DOJ.  The day after the governor's proclamation the county election head called the DOJ, and made their first formal filing within the week, and a supplemental filing a week later.

The lawsuit was filed after Monterey County had filed for preclearance on a expedited basis.  Monterey County has said that they wouldn't object to an injunction because they are really concerned that voters might be disenfranchised.  So some other citizens have intervened with defendants.  The State of California (the other defendant) pointed out that under the 11th Amendment that the federal court could not enjoin California from conducting the election, so now the plaintiffs have sought to add Governor Schwarzenegger as a defendant, though it would have made more sense to name Debra Bowen, except she is a Democrat.

So far the court has issued a temporary restraining order from sending out absentee ballots.  After the court's order, Monterey County filed that they had received preclearance from the DOJ for the early election.  They had a supplemental filing where they asked for preclearance for other changes, including moving two polling locations, and also some changes related to absentee ballot procedures, such as putting the voter's pamphlet and ballot in the same envelope, and encouraging overseas voters to have an e-mail address on file so that ballots may be sent by e-mail (then returned by fax).  If the court doesn't dissolve the TRO, it will be the lawsuit that caused the delay that prevented the election from being held.

Before the gubernatorial recall election in 2003, there was similar litigation.  A couple of propositions had been moved from the March 2004 primary to the October 2003 statewide election.  The court had blocked sending of absentee ballots, but then preclearance from the DOJ was received, and the election went on.

Merced County is also a covered jurisdiction under Section 5.  In their case, they had 49.6% participation in 1972, which may have been due to the Census Bureau's estimate assuming that all population growth between 1970 and 1972 were citizens.  And like Monterey County, it had a military base (Castle AFB) that was BRAC'ed in the 1990s.  Merced County has spent $1 million in VRA pre-clearance over the past decade, and has recently filed for a bailout.

[jimrtex]

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

[jimrtex]

I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 

Schwarzenegger carried the district by 30.

[jimrtex]

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.

[jimrtex]

Senate District 22 - Texas.  Special election runoff for the remainder of the 2007-2011 term.

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

County	Birdwell	Sibley	Total	Percent
Bosque	581	377	958	61%
Coryell	572	476	1,048	55%
Ellis	1,548	670	2,218	70%
Falls	131	275	406	32%
Hill	545	327	872	63%
Hood	3,274	343	3,617	91%
Johnson	2,313	290	2,603	89%
McLennan	4,263	7,313	11,576	37%
Navarro	736	233	969	76%
Somervell	235	29	264	89%
Total	14,198	10,330	24,531	58%

McLennan County (Waco) is around 35% of the district and managed to get 47% of the vote, but with only tepid (63%) support for the hometown boy.  The Fort Worth suburbs managed much higher support, and Birdwell also won the counties in between.

The turnout in Ellis and Johnson was pretty low - combined they have more population than McLennan combined.  Johnson in particular took a low key approach, consolidating everything into 5 precincts, while McLennan had 93.

There is a newspaper report that Kip Averitt, who triggered the special election by resigning the seat, is considering staying in the race for the full term.

Averitt had filed in the primary for the full term (2011-2013, shortened to 2 years due to redistricting), and outsider Darren Yancy had filed against him in the Republican primary.  No Democrats filed.

Averitt's doctor advised him not to run, and he initially was going to withdraw from the primary.  But that would have meant that Yancy, who was not from Waco, would win the primary and general election by default.  So Averitt remained in the race, but did not campaign, and was nominated in the March Primary for the 2011-2013 term.

If a nominee withdraws, he ordinarily can't be replaced.  But if he is the only nominee chosen at a primary, all parties can name a new nominee.

After he was nominated, Averitt announced his resignation from the final year of his 2007-2011 term, which triggered the special election (and runoff).  Former senator David Sibley (from Waco) announced he was running.  A Democrat and Yancy ran.  But Brian Birdwell also entered the race.  If it had been Sibley vs. the Democrat and Yancy, Sibley would have easily won, and then the county chairs would have nominated him for the full term.  The Democrats might have passed, simply because the district overlaps much of Chet Edwards congressional district.

But now that the voters have chosen Birdwell, the county chairs might be reluctant to nominate Sibley for the full term.  They could, because it is one county, one vote.

Averitt is now considering not withdrawing.  So he will have (1) filed for renomination; (2) announced that wasn't going to run; (3) announcing that he wasn't going to formally withdraw from the primary, which would permit his replacement if he was nominated; (4) nof campaigning before the primary, but being nominated; (5) announced his resignation from the current term, which triggered a special election; and (6) announced that he is reconsidering not withdrawing from his nomination.

[jimrtex]

Just a tiny amount of San Jose is in the district, though. You can't extrapolate the 2008 results and make a prediction on tonight's showing from them.

I think by-mail voting is going to end up being 75-80% of the vote.

Santa Clara has 53 of 103 precincts in with 2732 votes vs 20,182 by mail.   Blakeslee appears to be doing a little bit better in election day voting.  So it could end up really close to 50%.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

I think it is going to end up around 49.5%.  Santa Clara and Santa Cruz are all in.  Monterey is getting close.  Santa Barbara has had any more in a few hours, but is only 8.6% of district.

Since nobody got a majority, this is just a primary with 4 unopposed candidates.  So unless Fitzgerald folds, it comes down to who can get the more turnout or turn-in because of the mail ballotes.

49.71%  I'm not sure that write-ins are being reported consistently, or whether they count in determining a majority.

And were all the by-mail ballots counted tonight?

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

McCain only ran about 2-3% ahead of Republican registration in the northern 3 counties, so maybe 15-20% of the independent vote.  He did a lot better in SLO, and somewhat better in Santa Barbara.

Assuming equal turnout among Republicans, Democrats, and independents, a Republican only needs a bit over 60% among independents to win.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The Secretary of State publishes presidential election results by senate district (and county within the district), as well as for assembly and congressional districts.

Go ahead and check it out.  If you have difficulty finding it, ask questions, and perhaps someone can assist you.

[jimrtex]

Winning over Democrats isn't the problem.

Just look at Santa Clara county.  The result there implies a pretty significant crossover vote as well as low Democratic turnout.   Obama won 63% in the portion included in the district and John Kerry got 56% there.  Laird has to win there with room to spare to have a chance in the runoff.

Ehh, did you read my post? Santa Clara has 1.6million residents, and probably 150k people from Santa Clara are actually in this district, most from small cities and towns, and unincorporated areas. You can't use any county-wide result and apply it to this district considering <10% of the county actually lives in this district. And San Jose is hardly in this district too, and that city carries a lot of weight in county-wide results.

That said, yeah, Laird should be able to win it, but not by much. He needs to work harder till August.

The part of Santa Clara in the district went 63% for Obama as opposed to 69% for Obama in the county as a whole. 

62.1%.  You might be disregarding the 1.7% of the vote cast for other candidates.

[jimrtex]

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.

After Birdwell was sworn in to fill the remainder of the current term, he was nominated by the county chairs for the full (two year term).  The Democrats then nominated somebody, and immediately sued to have Birdwell declared ineligible (to have standing they had to have a candidate).  The Fort Worth appeals court where the case had recused themselves, because they didn't have time to consider the case, and dumped it into the laps of the Dallas appeals court.  Since under the Constitution, the Senate has authority to judge the qualifications and elections of its members, and have already sworn him in, it is possible the judges could just tell the Democratic challenger to contest the election if he loses.

[jimrtex]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

[jimrtex]

December 14 for HD-44 (East of San Antonio) to replace Edmund Kuempel who died just after the election.

John Kuempel, the late Edmund Kuempel's son, was elected with 65.6% of the vote.  A Democrat managed a surprising 4th in the race.

John Kuempel REP              7,245 65.69%
Gary W. Inmon REP             1,123 10.18%
Myrna McLeroy REP             1,022  9.26%
Cheryl Dees Patterson DEM       689  6.24%
Robin R. Walker REP             544  4.93%
Daniel Rodriguez Andrade DEM    119  1.07%
Ron Avery    REP                 79  0.71%
Chris Burchell REP               73  0.66%
Jim Fish REP                     73  0.66%
Tony Gergely LIB                 62  0.56%