Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Napoleon]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

Uh, Connecticut? Look at the exit poll and how Obama overwhelmingly won Protestants there. Hey maybe that's it, the Protestant and Jewish upper class areas vote Democratic and the Catholic ones still have a socially conservative tinge and are more open to Republicans. Maybe Connecticut is my perfect state.

You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

[Napoleon]

You have your working class Catholics in places like Waterbury and they are the more socially conservative ones but if we're still talking about the wealthier Connecticut Republicans they are in places like Himes' district and aren't very Republican anymore. That area is pretty comparable to Westchester in New York. Many Italians in Connecticut are religious and socially conservative but my entire family is very liberal. Demographically, CT can only get more Democratic.
I don't foresee any seats switching partisan hands tomorrow.

I think one will, and maybe two. The House seat in New Britain, the House seat in Chester/Essex and the Senate seat in Meriden have GOP candidates with fair shots at winning.

Peckinpaugh is the only one I can see winning but I still don't believe it will happen. We shall see.

FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.

Malloy is a moron and this is just preemptive damage control. It is, after all, his fault if we lose any seats. Still, it's not like a loss or two does much damage to our majorities.

[Napoleon]

Polls will be closing in ten minutes, I'll try to post results as soon as I start getting them.

Low turnout.

Results will be coming in.

[Napoleon]

Republicans picked up SD-13. Low turnout can do that.

[Napoleon]

HD-36 was pretty close however.

[Napoleon]

I woke up thinking this was going to be a good day.
It's Malloy's fault though. His Republican budget is very unpopular here.

[Napoleon]

Blast the Working Families Party. An organization that only endorses and does not run candidates of its own is a pressure group, not a political party.

So what's the problem? It's a good thing they aren't running candidates against Democrats. Look at all the problems caused for Republicans by the Conservative Party in New York.

[Napoleon]

Isn't Kruger's district very east European and conservative Jewish? It would make sense for Obama to lose there. I'm still shocked at how well Republicans manage to do at the State Senate level in New York, it seems that there is no real reason for it. It can't just be gerrymandering because there is too much ticket-splitting going on.