New ABC Poll

[Whacker77]

I just read on NRO's "The Corner" that ABC has a new poll out today.  I'm not sure if he was reporting new tracking numbers or a stand alone poll.  Regardless, he said the rumor was 48-48.  I suspect it's just the updated tracking results, but it certainly means Kerry's had a great couple of days.  In ABC's tracking poll, it's been 50-46 for several days.  Who knows.

[Sam Spade]

I would assume it would be their daily tracking poll.  I have no idea actually.

NRO's "The Corner" is usually pretty good for pre-poll release rumors, so I'd tend to believe it.

[Whacker77]

That's what I figured also.  I think the ABC tracking poll has had it 50-46 for three days.  I'm not sure what a one day jump like this means.  Given that they use a four day average, one would think that big moves like this would be less likely.  Is it a spike, I don't know.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I saw it is going to be Kerry up 2 among RVs, Bush up 3 among LVs.  Basically, this thing is tied. 

[The Vorlon]

Or perhaps 48 / 48 is correct, but refers to the RV result - ?

Let's wait 40 minutes and find out

[lidaker]

LV
Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1

RV
Kerry 48
Bush 46
Nader 2

Nice

[The Vorlon]

Wow - Zogby and ABC neck and neck in the volatility derby.

Zogby goes from Bush +2 to Kerry +3 to tied in 4 days..

Now ABC goes from BUsh +2 to Bush +6 to Kerry +1 in 5 days

[Sam Spade]

Feels like a blip to me, especially by looking at the internals.  We'll see in a couple of days or so.

ABC will probably show it being different, again.

These tracking polls are sure moving around a lot..  :-)

[Whacker77]

Vorlon, do you think this has spike written all over it?  Seven points in two days is a lot without a major news event.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, do you think this has spike written all over it?  Seven points in two days is a lot without a major news event.

One thing people forget on a tracking poll is in each day's result you actually get TWO days worth of statistical noise.

There is statistical noise in both the sample rolling on, and the sample rolling off.

For example, if a pro Bush blip rolls off, the same day a pro-kerry blip rolls on, you det a double blip.

7 points in 2 days is a heck of a lot, I assume it's either a blip of a weighting artifact.

WAPO has actually been quite stable at the RV level, moving a point a day or so at Kerry +2 in RVs it's unchanged today

Look at all the polls for any one day.

Kerry gains 4 in ABC
Unchanged in Zogby
Kerry gains 0.2% in Rasmussen
Bush gains 2% in TIPP

Add it all up.. Kerry picked up 0.55% today on average...

Tomorrow is another day

[TheOldLine]

ABC's weight puts it at 48-48, LV.

TheOldLine

[Shira]

Wow - Zogby and ABC neck and neck in the volatility derby.

Zogby goes from Bush +2 to Kerry +3 to tied in 4 days..

Now ABC goes from BUsh +2 to Bush +6 to Kerry +1 in 5 days

Both converged to gap=0.
What you describe took 7 days to ABC and 10 days to Zogby IMHO.

Democracy Corps Poll and WP also converged.
Rasmussen has shrinked.
Tipp on the other has swelled.

[Sam Spade]

Reading the ABC news article on this, the ABC/WP result's movement is because of an outlier yesterday. 

Things will probably move back decently to Bush by Friday or so, unless another strong Kerry sample comes in.