Five People Most Likely to be the 45th President

[N.i.K.]

Kirsten Gillibrand
Mitt Romney
Stephanie Sandlin
David Petraeus
Jeb Bush

(In No Particular Order)

Navy = 2012
Red = 2016
Orange = Applicable to Both

[pogo stick]

Mike Pence
Sarah Palin
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Hillary Clinton

Bold = 2012
Yellow bold = 2016

[BeccaM]

Why Stephanie? She's staying put in the House and even if Tim Johnson retires (doubtful) it wouldn't be until 2014, also the soonest she could possibly be elected governor. And she's a Blue Dog at that. She may have potential but probably not top 5 for next in line.

[Swedish Cheese]

Kirsten Gillibrand
Mitt Romney
Stephanie Sandlin
David Petraeus
Jeb Bush

Yay Gillibrand
Jeb Bush shouldn't be up there though, the Bushes are finished for at least a generation.

Well I think these guys are most likely:

Willard Mitten Romney
Charles Joseph Crist Jr.
Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton
Joeseph Robinette Biden Jr. (Not by election, but there's always the chance Obama will be assasianted)
Kirsten Elizabeth Rutnik Gillibrand (I'm hoping for this)
 

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Why does Romney always seem to make the list? He will never become President.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Anyway, for me the list is, in no particular order:

Mike Huckabee
Charlie Crist
Tim Pawlenty
Hillary Clinton
Joseph Biden

[Jayhawker]

In no particular order:
Mitt Romney
Charlie Crist
Joseph Biden
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Sarah Palin

[zclark1994]

I have to have 3 different versions of this.

If Obama has a successful presidency:

1. Joe Biden
2. Hillary Clinton

I can't really see any other people running for president with a chance of success in 2016.

If Obama has a Mediocre 1st term:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Joe Biden
4. Hillary Clinton

Pretty Self Explanatory.  This assumes that if his first term is ok, but not above average, that the Democrats will not nominate Obama and go for Biden or Hillary.

If Obama has a bad 1st term:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty

Self explanatory.  Democrats lose control of congress in 2010, and Republicans become 2008's democrats.

[You kip if you want to...]

Fmr Governor Mitt Romney (Only after a potential 2012 win)
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Vice President Joe Biden
Senator Mark Warner
Senator Alexi Giannoulias

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

If you say the Republican nominee has a 20-25% chance of winning in 2012 and a 50% chance of winning in 2016, the most likely 45th is any Republican who could plausibly win in either '12 or '16 since they have more scenarios how it could happen.  Romney would be 69 in 2016 but unlike almost everyone else on this site, I think that he could still run then since the Democratic nominee could be Hillary also 69 or Biden 73.

1. Mike Huckabee
2. Mitt Romney
3. Tim Pawlenty

While Obama is the person most likely to be win the next presidential election, his very likely re-nomination would knock the Democrats lower on a list like this.

4. Hillary Clinton
5. Joe Biden

Should Obama win re-election, the Democrats move up to even ground  and the losing Republican nominee is off the list unless the election was very close.

I'll guess Brian Schweitzer.

[Mr. Morden]

Joe Biden
Mitt Romney
Tim Pawlenty
Hillary Clinton

Not sure about #5.....Charlie Crist or Mark Warner maybe?  I guess I'll go with Crist.  Jindal is also a possibility in 2016.

[General Mung Beans]

If Obama has a Mediocre 1st term:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Joe Biden
4. Hillary Clinton

Pretty Self Explanatory.  This assumes that if his first term is ok, but not above average, that the Democrats will not nominate Obama and go for Biden or Hillary.

If an incumbent loses the nomination it's pretty unlikely that party will win the presidential election.

[Progressive Realist]

Brian Schwietzer
Mark Warner
Mitt Romney

That's all I can think of at this point.

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Warner declined to run for president, then took his name out of the running for VP.  Come 2016, he'll be north of 60.  I don't think he has a serious interest in the presidency.

[Bo]

Andrew Cuomo
Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Brian Schweitzer
Hillary Clinton

In that order, from most to least likely.

[Chris B]

This is pressuming that some of the names mentioned are even elected to their respective offices:

Andrew Cuomo
Tim Pawlenty
Kelly Ayotte
Joe Sestak
Kristin Gillibrand

Cuomo, Gillbrand, and Sestak just strike as natural would-be heirs to Obama. Pawlenty is the GOP's best chance at taking back the White House in 2012, and I just have a feeling about Ayotte making a run down the line.

[Magic 8-Ball]

[Insert five stock Republicans here]

I find it fairly unlikely that Obama will be followed by another Democrat...unless a worst-case scenario pops up whereby Biden assumes the presidency.

[Vosem]

Mitt Romney
John Thune
Tim Pawlenty
Joe Biden
Andrew Cuomo

[JerryBrown2010]

2012
Mitt Romney

2016
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Kirsten Gillibrand
Charlie Crist

[Bo]

2012
Mitt Romney

2016
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Kirsten Gillibrand
Charlie Christ

It's Charlie Crist, not Christ. He isn't the Messiah. BTW, do you still think Hillary is going to run and win in 2016?

[N.i.K.]

Andrew Cuomo
Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Brian Schweitzer
Hillary Clinton

In that order, from most to least likely.

Hack list.

[Bo]

Andrew Cuomo
Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Brian Schweitzer
Hillary Clinton

In that order, from most to least likely.

Hack list.

In my opinion, this is not a hack list (even though I should have but Schweitzer and Clinton above Gillibrand).  I just think Republicans need to have a longer time than 8 years for their brand to recover, especially how many people remember Bush's inept and corrupt Presidency. If there is a recession in 2016 or before, sure the GOP may win, but personally, I don't see a recession on the horizon until after the 2016 elections.

[N.i.K.]

Andrew Cuomo
Joe Biden
Kirsten Gillibrand
Brian Schweitzer
Hillary Clinton

In that order, from most to least likely.

Hack list.

In my opinion, this is not a hack list (even though I should have but Schweitzer and Clinton above Gillibrand).  I just think Republicans need to have a longer time than 8 years for their brand to recover, especially how many people remember If there is a recession in 2016 or before, sure the GOP may win, but personally, I don't see a recession on the horizon until after the 2016 elections.

You are going on the presumption that Obama will deal with every crisis that we face in a good, amiable way. You imply that he will fix everything. If it wasn't a hack list you would have included at least one republican.  "Bush's inept and corrupt Presidency", ok, yeah, I'm sure that everyone remembered Nixon when they elected Reagan in 1980. There are so many variables that immediately presuming democratic rule for the next 12 years is unrealistic.

To be honest, we are looking at bad figures and many problems ahead. I give Obama's chances of success (Very generous, actually) at 50-50. I maintain that he probably will be re-elected, but you can't make such predictions from here.

Even if 2010 results in somewhat of a turnaround, we may be looking at another recession in 2012 or 2013. Figures aren't looking well. He could turn it around, he could not. Either way, your assumptions show wishful thinking and some form of hackery.

You could be right in calling 2016 for the Democrats. However, you imply that it seems assured with your list.

[Mr. Morden]

Is Gillibrand really that impressive, or are people just mentioning her because she's a female Dem. from New York state?  I have to admit, of the little I've seen of her, I haven't been terribly wowed.  Amy Klobuchar seems more articulate, from what I've seen of her.  I agree that there's a good chance that the Dems would want to go with a woman in 2016, but if Clinton doesn't run, would Gillibrand really be the best they could come up with?

[A dog on every car, a car in every elevator]

Is Gillibrand really that impressive, or are people just mentioning her because she's a female Dem. from New York state?  I have to admit, of the little I've seen of her, I haven't been terribly wowed.  Amy Klobuchar seems more articulate, from what I've seen of her.  I agree that there's a good chance that the Dems would want to go with a woman in 2016, but if Clinton doesn't run, would Gillibrand really be the best they could come up with?

If neither Hillary nor Biden runs- which seems unlikely- 2016 on the D side may revolve around female candidates filling the vacuum of Hillary's political exit and progressive candidates wooing a base disappointed in Obama.  Perhaps Coakley will emerge as both.