If Baucus could back up that statement by naming the names of people who will be voting against it, that would be greatly appreciated. Of course, he's made it clear that he wouldn't be opposed to a public option, so unless he was lying or is lying in this article, he should be able to name the 10 Democrats who will vote against a public option.
Perhaps you are assuming that only 50 votes are needed rather than 60 because the reconciliation finesse will work. I don't happen to think it will work because it takes 60 votes to override an objection that the content of the bill or aspects of it are not germaine to the budget, which objection is not only well taken, but even if it were not, it still requires 60 votes. I suspect that Baucus agrees with me when he made the statement and that 60 votes are needed Lief.