Opinion of Political Futures Markets?
Election betting markets have been growing in popularity. These markets are
chiefly an internet phenomenon, leveraging the ability of a large number of participants
to quickly and cheaply place wagers on the outcome of upcoming elections. The first
such market, the Iowa Political Stock Market, was founded in 1988 and involved modest
stakes and only a few hundred traders. The more recent incarnations, most prominently
Intrade and Betfair, have thousands of traders and involve millions of dollars in wagers.
There is strong evidence that prices in these markets provide accurate forecasts of
election outcomes.
http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/w14377.pdf
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